Liases Foras, the Mumbai-based real estate research firm's Ressex data, or real estate sensitivity index, shows that as on March this year, the total unsold stock in the main markets of the country was 471.91 million square feet. This unsold stock of houses will take at least 22 months to be sold, significantly higher than what the firm says is "the preferred eight to ten months."
"In the Mumbai region itself, sell-offs at today's offtake rate will take around 68 months against the construction period of three years (36 months) if sales do not improve. In such a case I expect a 35% correction in prices over a period of one-and-a-half years. However, for the next two to three months, it would be very difficult to speculate," said Pankaj Kapoor, founder and CEO, Liases Foras.
Kapoor expects prices to soften in almost all the main sectors in the country. There is also a possibility prices will "fall 20-25% and do not appreciate from there for quite some time."
But liquidity would be the key for such a scenario to unravel, says Anand Narayanan, national director-residency, Knight Frank India.
"Though we have been talking of a price correction, developers would slash prices only when there is a liquidity crunch (in terms of funds for projects)," said Narayanan.
The Liases Foras data includes both ready and under construction and is a total of unsold stock from Mumbai Metropolitan region, National Capital Region, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune.
Out of the six main sectors, Mumbai has the second-highest level of unsold stock and highest month inventory. With an unsold stock of around 105 million sq ft, the city's total month inventory (estimated time for clearance) is around 35 months. A year ago, the city had an unsold stock of around 68 million sq feet. The National Capital region has the maximum unsold stock with 194 million sq feet unsold, but a lower monthly inventory of 22 months.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India increase key lending rates by 50 basis points, forcing most banks to increase the borrowing costs. This has made borrowing costs expensive for both real estate developers and consumers.
Nonetheless, Narayanan does not see this as much of an issue. "Interest rates surely are one of the factors that decide liquidity. However, a number of these developers have raised a lot of equity in the past 18 months from the market. Thus, they may be funds available to keep the construction work going. At this point, a few developers have an issue with funds, but not all of them," Narayanan said.
Still, some, including Akash Deep Jyoti, head-real estate rating, Crisil, believe that with not many new projects being launched amid high land prices, not much can be seen in terms of a price correction.
Confirming once again that Wall Street economist (and sell side in general) is the most useless profession in the world (though gladly accepting a 7 figures compensation), is the latest data out of Japan which is yet another stunner to most, as nobody, nobody, could have possible predicted that the Japanese economy would literally fall off a cliff in Q1, plunging at a 3.7% rate (down from -3% previously), which is double the consensus print of -1.9%. DOUBLE. And in nominal terms the collapse was simply epic: -5.2%! And yes, this is officially a recession. Of course, anyone reading Zero Hedge would have been perfectly aware of this outcome. "Increasingly we have come to believe that the real marginal economy over the next several quarters will be neither that of the contracting US, nor that of the rapidly tightening, yet still very much inflationary China, but the (arguably) third largest one: that of Japan." Today our prediction is more than confirmed. And instead of hiding deep in the whatever holes these morlocks cralwed out of, Bloomberg for some inexplicable reason continues to look to their blatantly horrendous opinion. "The negative economic impact from the disaster will be on full display during the second quarter," Hiroshi Watanabe, a senior economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo, said before the report. "This recession may be deep, but short." Yeah, sure. Short. We'll just hold our breath. And for it to be short, it means that the BOJ will be forced to print a few hundred trillion in Yen asap right? Which in turn means that the USDJPY will surge and shift the Japanese recession even faster over to the US. And yes it means that the turbo print button among the central banks will get the F5 treatment as the second round of currency devaluation completes a lap.
Some more much delayed reality:
Highlighting the disaster's effect on companies, Toyota Motor Corp. said profits plunged while Nippon Steel Corp. reported its first net loss in six quarters, after the quake closed plants, cut supply chains and caused power shortage.
Factory output fell by a record and retail sales and exports declined in March because of power shortages spurred by a nuclear accident in Fukushima, northeast of Tokyo, and damage to transportation facilities after the temblor.
"It's hard to think that companies will become aggressive about increasing business spending when uncertainties remain strong," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. "Capital spending will likely be in a declining trend as corporate profits may do worse than expected."
Capital investment dropped 0.9 percent in the first quarter, the first decline in six quarters, today's data showed.
Consumer spending fell 0.6 percent in the January-March period from the previous three months, today's report showed.
But since the conspiracy of optimism needs its daily fix, there is of course a hopey-changey silver lining:
"We look for a classic V-shaped recovery in the July-to- September period and after," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. "A self-sustaining recovery in production, an increase in government consumption and reconstruction demand centered around public works will likely support the economy."
Frontal lobe bleeding may now commence.
Opnext, Inc ( NASDAQ: OPXT ) reported Q4 earnings ended march 31 2011. Company has reported $ 95.3 million in revenues, down 2% compared to the previous quarter ( QoQ ) while 24 % up on YOY basis. Stock jumped more than 30 % to $ 2.44 in the morning trade.
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| Opnext Inc |
Company announced that for the first quarter of 2012, it expects revenues to be between $93-$97 million. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report revenues of $99 million for the first quarter of 2012.
( Source: Reuters )
Acorda Therapeutics Inc ( NASDAQ: ACOR ) gets conditional approval for its multiple sclerosis drug Fampyra from European Medicine Agency's committee for medicinal products for human use.
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| Acorda Therapeutics |
Stock of the company jumped more than 20 % in the pre market trade and might stay above $30 during the intraday session.
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) is developing and marketing Fampyra outside the U.S. under a licensing agreement from Acorda, which currently sells the drug in the U.S. under the trade name Ampyra.
In January, European regulators had recommended against approving the drug, which helps improve walking in adults with multiple sclerosis.
But Acorda said Friday Biogen expects to obtain a conditional marketing authorization for Fampyra within 67 days. A conditional marketing authorization is renewable annually and Biogen will be required to provide further data to the committee.
Approval in Europe would trigger a $25 million milestone payment from Biogen to Acorda, which may receive additional payments of up to $375 million based on the achievement of future regulatory and sales milestones. Acorda also receives a double-digit royalty from Biogen based on net sales of Fampyra outside the U.S.
Acorda will pay 7% of the Biogen milestone payments to Elan Corp.'s (ELN, ELN.DB) Elan Pharma International Ltd. unit under existing agreements.
Acorda reported first-quarter Ampyra sales $46.8 million.
( Source: WSJ )
According to the data from World Gold Council, China's demand of gold rose 21% YoY to 142.9 tons and outpaced India, the largest market of gold bars and coins in the first quarter of 2011.Chinese investors bought 93.5 tonnes of gold between January and March in the form of coins, bars and medallions, a 55 per cent increase from the previous quarter and more than double the level of a year earlier according to the data. The rise in Chinese gold consumption has been stimulated by the deregulation of the country’s gold market, which has led to an increase in the number of banks importing gold and the number of specialist shops that sell it.
Some investors are betting on improved economic conditions in the West and interest rate hike. They are considering to cut the exposure in Gold.While, some fund managers considering to move away from gold and accumulating diamond and gem set jewelry.
For Example, George Soros’s hedge fund sold almost all its holdings in the largest gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, in the first quarter, according to a regulatory filing this week.
"Gold no longer satisfies status demand, you need bling, you need something shiny, you need diamonds, " says Eddie Tam who runs the hedge fund CAI Global.The fund, which returned 48 percent last year has increased its exposure to two high-performing Hong Kong listed jewelry stocks - Look Fuk whose shares have surged 261 percent over one year and Chow Sang Sang, which is up 80 percent over the same period.
"The strong gold and diamond prices of late as well as the mounting inflationary pressures bode well for Hong Kong jewelers in terms of both revenue and margins."
Jewelry chains enjoy a 10 percent profit margin on gold, but hedge fund manager Tam says they can make 3 to 5 times more on gem set jewelry.
So far, the bulk of jewelry chains’ revenues still come from gold. A spokesman for Chow Sang Sang told CNBC, 55 percent of their sales come from gold and just 35 percent from non-gold jewelry. The rest comes from watches.
But Tam expects this product mix to change, with diamonds and gem set jewelery set to grow as advertising campaigns try and influence more Chinese men to buy diamond engagement rings.
According to De Beers, diamond sales grew 25 percent in China in 2010 and the country is now tied with Japan as the second-biggest consumer of diamonds, with the U.S. taking the top spot. Tam says China's demand for diamonds is about to go non-linear because of income growth and will soon hit high double-digit percentage increases, if not triple digits.
Despite being bullish, Bank of China says investors need to be wary of two risks. For one, same store sales may drop if China experiences a major slowdown caused by a downturn in the property sector. And two, both companies have large inventories of gold and diamonds that could decline in value if jewelry prices drop.
( Source: Financial Times, CNBC )
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is planning to make his second visit to China as the world's No. 1 social networking company trying to expand into China.
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But China, where the government exercises tight control over online information, has proven hard to crack for Western Internet companies. Last year Google partially withdrew from China following a spat over online censorship and cyber attacks that Google said originated in China.
"Our company mission is really clear, which is we want to connect the whole world," said Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg at the Reuters Global Technology Summit on Thursday. "And it's impossible to think about connecting the whole world right now without also connecting China."
"Despite what you may have read, Mark and I actually really agree on the importance of China," Sandberg said.
Sandberg said the timing and the agenda of Zuckerberg's return trip to China was undetermined, but that the 27-year-old Facebook co-founder, who is studying Chinese, would probably return this year.
"We don't know exactly what he'd do, but certainly engagement is really important. Plus, Mark really likes tech entrepreneurs," she said. "He likes meeting with them always, everywhere he goes."
( Source: Reuters )
NIFTY Performed on Wednesday:
Markets edged higher in the afternoon session and ended the day on a positive note after engineering conglomerate L&T (Larsen & Tourbo) reported 17% rise in the fourth quarter profit. The S&P CNX Nifty ended at 5,428.10, up 7.50 points or 0.14 %.
The Nifty futures closed and settled finally at 5424.80, up by 0.75 points or 0.01 %.
Positional Trend with Levels
(Updated on 20-5-2011)
Buying Zone 5370-5490
(This zone is trend changer which can lead to nifty up direction for positional, mean this support is able to move NIFTY 5578 above for shortly)
After the crossing 5600…NIFTY will enter into the bullish zone for targets 5755-5811 in 1-3 months only)
Just, Concentrate on Closing or Breaking…!
Breaking of this support is not dangerous for long term investor because next support available for to move up for Nifty to move up… which is between 5240-5278!
Yes, Short term trade can take short position after breaking 5370 for targets 5300-5278…?
Technical Data-Sheet on NIFTY:
Last (19/05) close@5428 (+8 points)
Last high@5452 low@5411
Weekly high@5605 low@5401
5DMA@5466
20DMA@5614
50DMA@5644
200DMA@5756
5-DAY RSI 28 AND 14-DAY RSI 36.
Refresh your memory…?
On Friday, We sold NIFTY Future 5611-5629…! And Given Targets 5476 to subscribers and yahoo Group me.
Target achieved on Tuesday with Touched 5422
Yes, you can still hold with stoploss 5429 and Read below msg…!
What for Today…?
Technical Data-Sheet on NIFTY:
Last (19/05) close@5428 (+8 points)
Last high@5452 low@5411
Weekly high@5605 low@5401
5DMA@5466
20DMA@5614
50DMA@5644
200DMA@5756
5-DAY RSI 28 AND 14-DAY RSI 36.
Refresh your memory…?
On Friday, We sold NIFTY Future 5611-5629…! And Given Targets 5476 to subscribers and yahoo Group me.
Target achieved on Tuesday with Touched 5422
Yes, you can still hold with stoploss 5429 and Read below msg…!
What for Today…?
Hurdle at 5441 level. If Bulls can able to get past this level, then expect short covering up to 5465-5467 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5490-5492 zone by non-stop.
Multiple Support at 5410-5412 zone & at 5414 level. Bulls will not allow Bears to dominate below these levels. If broken, then selling may continue up to 5404 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5386-5388 zone by non-stop.
Below 5377-5379 zone, expect panic up to 5353-5355 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, cross above 5498-5500 zone can take it up to 5523-5525 zone by non-stop. Best Oppurtunity for Bulls to Offload their positions and have caution.
Multiple Support at 5410-5412 zone & at 5414 level. Bulls will not allow Bears to dominate below these levels. If broken, then selling may continue up to 5404 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5386-5388 zone by non-stop.
Below 5377-5379 zone, expect panic up to 5353-5355 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, cross above 5498-5500 zone can take it up to 5523-5525 zone by non-stop. Best Oppurtunity for Bulls to Offload their positions and have caution.
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| Daily Digest Stockinvestips |
1) Con-way ( NYSE: CNW) upgraded from hold to buy by Stifel Nicolaus.
2) Validus Holdings ( NYSE:VR ) upgraded from hold to buy by Stifel Nicolaus.
See More here
Downgrades for May 19 2011 Thursday:
1) AGL Resources ( NYSE: AGL ) downgraded from buy to neutral by UBS.
2) Citi Trends ( NASDAQ : CTRN) downgraded from buy to neutral by Longbow.
3) OfficeMax ( NYSE: OMX ) downgraded from outperform to perform by Oppenheimer.
4) Staples ( NASDAQ : SPLS ) downgraded from outperform to perform by Oppenheimer.
5) Suntech Power ( NYSE : STP ) downgraded from buy to neutral by Collins Stewart.
See More here
Coverage Initiated for May 19 2011 Thursday:
1) ExlService ( NASDAQ: EXLS ) coverage initiated with outperform by Oppenheimer.
2) Genpact ( NYSE: G ) coverage initiated with outperform by Oppenheimer.
3) PennantPark Floating Rate Capital ( NYSE: PFLT ) coverage initiated with buy by Stifel Nicolaus.
4) SandRidge Mississippian Trust I ( NYSE: SDT ) coverage initiated with perform by Oppenheimer.
5) WNS ( NASDAQ: WNS) coverage initiated with perform by Oppenheimer.
Tech Five: Technology Headlines for March 19 2011 ( Thursday ) !!
1. Apple's cloud music service (possibly to be called iCloud) is looking more like a done deal--"multiple" sources are saying Apple's just signed a deal with EMI and is close to signing Sony and Universal too. Considering we've heard a while back that Warner is already on board, this means that unlike Google's or Amazon's attempts, Apple's cloud iTunes will, when it arrives, have very broad industry backing...which could let it sew up the market.
2. Microsoft has made an official attempt to rebuff Intel's claims that Windows 8 will be fragmented and lack backwards compatibility: Intel's words were "factually inaccurate" and "misleading." We don't know which bits in particular, nor what MS's plans actually are...so this story now has an even more unusual angle--Intel and Microsoft have been close allies for decades. Are they now falling out?
3. The U.K. authorities seem set to support a revamp of the nation's 300-year-old copyright laws, in a move that may set a global precedent. An independent review has this week concluded that IP protection laws were founded in a century when most of today's innovations weren't even conceivable--and the U.K.'s creative industries, "high technology businesses," and smaller enterprises needed new laws so their progress wasn't "impeded."
4. Google's Eric Schmidt has warned against facial recognition technology being used in certain ways online--such as automatically scanning faces in imagery to aid its search systems. The tech has extreme privacy-violating risks, and it's "surprising accuracy" makes it more worrying--to the point it becomes "creepy" and it's unlikely, Schmidt says, that Google will be doing it soon. "Some company" will though, he warned, intimating Facebook.
5. In a study commissioned by the Wall Street Journal, the social media "Like" and share phenomenon has spread very far across the Web: One third of the top 1,000 most visited websites have Facebook's "Like" button in place, 25% have an option from Google, and 20% bear Twitter's code. Meanwhile TV shows have received 1.65 billion Likes on Facebook--suggesting that Facebook may be more important to the TV industry than we had thought.
( Source: Fast Company )
1. Apple's cloud music service (possibly to be called iCloud) is looking more like a done deal--"multiple" sources are saying Apple's just signed a deal with EMI and is close to signing Sony and Universal too. Considering we've heard a while back that Warner is already on board, this means that unlike Google's or Amazon's attempts, Apple's cloud iTunes will, when it arrives, have very broad industry backing...which could let it sew up the market.
2. Microsoft has made an official attempt to rebuff Intel's claims that Windows 8 will be fragmented and lack backwards compatibility: Intel's words were "factually inaccurate" and "misleading." We don't know which bits in particular, nor what MS's plans actually are...so this story now has an even more unusual angle--Intel and Microsoft have been close allies for decades. Are they now falling out?
3. The U.K. authorities seem set to support a revamp of the nation's 300-year-old copyright laws, in a move that may set a global precedent. An independent review has this week concluded that IP protection laws were founded in a century when most of today's innovations weren't even conceivable--and the U.K.'s creative industries, "high technology businesses," and smaller enterprises needed new laws so their progress wasn't "impeded."
4. Google's Eric Schmidt has warned against facial recognition technology being used in certain ways online--such as automatically scanning faces in imagery to aid its search systems. The tech has extreme privacy-violating risks, and it's "surprising accuracy" makes it more worrying--to the point it becomes "creepy" and it's unlikely, Schmidt says, that Google will be doing it soon. "Some company" will though, he warned, intimating Facebook.
5. In a study commissioned by the Wall Street Journal, the social media "Like" and share phenomenon has spread very far across the Web: One third of the top 1,000 most visited websites have Facebook's "Like" button in place, 25% have an option from Google, and 20% bear Twitter's code. Meanwhile TV shows have received 1.65 billion Likes on Facebook--suggesting that Facebook may be more important to the TV industry than we had thought.
( Source: Fast Company )
Pharmaceutical Headlines for 19 may 2011 ( Thursday )
• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) to Acquire Phadia AB for $3.5 Billion Cash More...
• Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX) Raises $31.5 Million More...
• Biotech Firm, Gallus Biopharmaceuticals to Add 160 Jobs In Missouri More...
• AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) Drug Slows Ovarian Cancer Progression in Phase 2 Study More...
• Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) Pill Slows Prostate Cancer and Ovarian Tumors in Study More...
• Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Presents New Phase 3 Data Showing Axitinib Significantly Extended Progression-Free Survival Compared With Sorafenib In Patients With Previously-Treated Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma More...
• Enzon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ENZN) Ditches PEG-SN38 for mCRC but Continues Development in Other Cancers More...
• Baxter Canada Slashes 135 Jobs, Closes Sherbrooke, Quebec, Plant More...
• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) to Acquire Phadia AB for $3.5 Billion Cash More...
• Maquet Cardiovascular LLC Receives 510(k) Clearance and CE Mark for CARDIOROOT More...
• Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Receives FDA Approval for Molecular Test for Hepatitis C More...
( Source: Biospace )
