An ET Wealthanalysis of nearly 1,200 firms reveals that the companies which provide regular dividends also offer higher capital appreciation for investors.
Investors love high-dividend stocks because they fulfil two basic needs. These stocks provide a regular income and are relatively less volatile than other scrips. The dividend yield acts as a safety cushion that prevents the scrip from going into a free-fall. However, these are not the only reasons you should consider the dividend yield stocks. ET Wealthanalysed nearly 1,200 listed companies and found that in the past three years, the companies that have paid regular dividends have also offered high capital appreciation to investors.
The dividend discount model says that the price of a stock is the present value of the future dividends discounted at an appropriate rate. If the discount rate is constant, an increased stream of dividends will lead to a higher value, and vice versa. In other words, the companies that boost their dividend payment are likely to outperform the stocks that have contracting dividends. This implies that the stocks that pay dividends are not only a good source of regular income, but are also better wealth creators than other stocks and investment avenues.
To test this theory, we analysed 1,183 companies and studied their dividend payment patterns for the past three financial years. The stocks that had not paid any dividend in the past three years were excluded from the analysis. This left us with 586 stocks. Next, we categorised these stocks into two groups. The first included companies that had consistently increased their dividends in the past three years. The second group comprised firms which had either reduced their dividends or where the payout had remained stagnant in the past three years.
The importance of dividend payout was clear when we analysed the price performance of these two groups between 31 March 2009 and 29 July 2011. In the first group, the stock prices of the companies that had increased the dividend payment had appreciated by 286% on an average. The share prices in the second group, which included companies with falling or stagnant dividends, had risen by 129% on average. During the same period, the Sensex, which also included companies that had not paid any dividend, rose by 87.44%. All these returns are in absolute terms.
This underlines the market's perception of dividend payout. Both groups contained dividend paying stocks, but the first group generated more than twice the returns delivered by the second group. Also, both managed to outperform the broader market. Whether they increase or decrease the dividend payout, the stocks that give a regular income will be able to outperform the general market substantially.
Does this mean that dividend stocks always outperform other stocks? Says Sudhakar Shanbhag, chief investment officer, Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Insurance: "When the dividend yield is higher than the risk-free interest yield, these stocks will outperform. Also, in a volatile or bearish market, the company's fundamentals will hold these stocks in good stead." The yield of the benchmark government bond is considered a proxy for the risk-free rate. In India, the 10-year government bond yield has averaged 8.1% in the past year.
However, people should not invest in such stocks blindly because some companies tend to pay dividends just to soothe their shareholders. So, investment in such firms may not be fruitful in the long run. Says Shanbhag: "The best way to look for such anomalies is by checking whether the dividends are from the current cash profits."
This helps separate the chaff from the grain. The dividend should have been paid from the company's operating profit. It makes little sense to distribute cash to shareholders when the company isn't making any.
We also analysed the dividend payments according to sectors (see graphic). So, which were the most generous dividend payers and which were the most niggardly? The IT industry was the most generous, with its dividend payments increasing by over 2,318 crore in 2010-11 compared with 2009-10. Banks came next with an increase of 2,158 crore, followed by the pharma industry. The tobacco industry made the unkindest cut, reducing its dividend by 351 crore.
We have identified five fundamentally sound dividend paying companies that can make for good, stable investments. All five are established players in their respective sectors and are included in the S&P CNX Nifty. The share prices of these stocks have been hammered down due to the global crisis. This only makes them more attractive for the long-term investor. Among these five stocks, Bajaj Auto tops with its 100% dividend growth in 2010-11 over the previous year.
Tata Motors
India's largest automobile manufacturer designs, manufactures, assembles and finances automobiles of all shapes and sizes. In the April-June quarter of 2011-12, Tata Motors' consolidated revenue grew 24.1% y-o-y to 33,570 crore. JLR's volume grew by 4.9% y-o-y to 62,090 vehicles. The prices in the commercial vehicles as well as passenger vehicles segments rose by approximately 2% in the beginning of the quarter. The company's JLR segment is likely to perform well due to large investments in research and development (R&D), and savvy product segmentation. The demand from China and other emerging markets will remain firm even if the demand from developed markets slips (due to concerns over recession). The stock presents a good buying opportunity.
ICICI Bank
The financial powerhouse and its subsidiaries offer a wide range of services, including commercial banking, retail banking, project and corporate finance, life and general insurance, venture capital and private equity, investment banking and broking services. The bank reported robust results for the first quarter of 2011-12, with net profit growing by 29.8% y-o-y to 1,332 crore. The asset quality is continuously improving at both the delinquency and recovery level. Its net interest income grew 21% y-o-y, supported by a steady loan growth. Looking at the consolidated results that include the performance of subsidiaries, its consolidated net profit grew 52.8% y-o-y and 6.3% q-o-q led by a strong core performance in banking, life insurance and general insurance. The stock is an attractive buy.
Bajaj Auto
This two- and three-wheeler manufacturer is wellknown for its R&D, product development, engineering and low-cost manufacturing skills. In the first quarter of 2011-12, its net revenue grew 23% y-o-y to 4,780 crore. The volume grew 17.7% y-o-y to 1.09 million units, driven by a 16% y-o-y growth in motorcycles and a 30% y-o-y growth in threewheelers. The company has increased its stake in Austria's KTM Power Sports AG to 39.26% and might consider taking it up to 49%. Moreover, the increasing penetration in rural markets and replacement demand from urban markets makes the industry dynamics favourable. At the current price, the stock is available at a good valuation.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories
This global pharma company has proven research capabilities and presence across the value chain. It conducts research in diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular diseases, anti-infective products and inflammation. The company reported higher-than-expected results in the April-June quarter of 2011-12, with its overall net profit growing by 25.1% y-o-y to 262 crore. The company has entered into strategic alliances with GSK and Valent Pharma that will assist in its longterm growth. At its current price, the stock presents an attractive investment opportunity.
Larsen & Toubro
India's largest engineering and construction company posted an impressive first quarter results, with its revenue up by 21% y-o-y to 9,480 crore. Its net profit increased by 12% y-o-y to 740 crore. Its order book includes large orders like the 1,200 crore Hyderabad Metro, 1,700 crore for the four-laning of National Highway 14 between Beawar and Pindwara, in Rajasthan, and a 1,400 crore power plant for PPN. L&T is fundamentally the strongest company in the industry and makes for a good buy at current levels.
News Highlights - Week of 26 August - 2 September 2011
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the Philippines fell to 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q11-the fourth straight quarter of slowing growth. The 2Q11 data brought the country's GDP growth in 1H11 to 4.0% y-o-y following 4.6% growth in 1Q11. The slowdown in GDP growth was due to faltering global demand that curbed exports and investments. Despite the global slowdown, the Philippine economy benefited from a robust rebound in the agriculture sector; the sustained, albeit slowing, performance of the manufacturing sector; and balanced growth in the services sector. On the demand side, consumer spending also boosted GDP with growth of 5.4% y-o-y in 2Q11.
*Japan's industrial production rose 0.6% in July from the previous month, the slowest monthly growth rate since March. In the Republic of Korea, industrial output in July grew at the slowest pace in 10 months, 3.8% y-o-y, as annual growth rates in manufacturing and producers' shipments fell. In Viet Nam, industrial production surged 5.8% y-o-y and 4.3% month-on-month (m-o-m).
*Retail sales in Hong Kong, China grew 29.1% y-o-y to HKD35.2 billion in July on account of robust local consumption and tourist spending. In Viet Nam, the total value of retail sales of goods and services increased 22.2% to VND1,224 trillion (USD59.7 billion) in the first 8 months of the year.
*Consumer price inflation for the Republic of Korea accelerated to 5.3% y-o-y in August, the highest level in 3 years, mainly triggered by a sharp increase in food prices. In Thailand, consumer price inflation in August rose to 4.3% y-o-y, the highest level since September 2008, spurred by escalating food costs.
*The Republic of Korea's trade surplus plunged to USD821 million in August from USD6.3 billion in the previous month, amid strong import growth and only modest export growth. In Thailand, the current account surplus widened to USD3.6 billion in July from USD2.5 billion in June, as the trade surplus for the month increased to USD2.7 billion from USD1.9 billion in the previous month.
*The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced its plan to include the margin deposits of commercial banks-the deposit paid by clients to secure the issuance of banker's acceptance and letters of credit-as part of the reserve requirement in order to mop up excessive liquidity. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Viet Nam issued its decision, effective 1 September, to increase foreign currency reserve requirement ratios for demand deposits and time deposits.
*Last week, notable bond issuances from the People's Republic of China included commerical paper from Sinohydro Group (CNY1 billion), Shaanxi Regional Electric Power (CNY1 billion), and Metallurgical Corporation of China (CNY3 billion). In the Republic of Korea, steel producer Posco priced a KRW500 billion 5-year bond at a coupon rate of 3.99%. In Thailand, Glow Energy Public Company Ltd. issued a 10-year bond worth THB5.6 billion with a 5.0% coupon.
*Government bond yields fell last week for all tenors in Viet Nam and for most tenors in the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. Yields rose for all tenors in the PRC and for most tenors in Thailand. Yield movements were mixed in Hong Kong, China; and were mostly unchanged in Indonesia. Yield spreads between 2- and 10- year maturities widened in the Philippines and Thailand, while spreads narrowed in most other emerging East Asian markets.
Michael Lewis gets skewered on his Vanity Fair piece on Germany, by Scott Locklin:
Michael Lewis is the preeminent financial journalist of our age. In many ways, Michael Lewis is the
only financial journalist of our age. No other author on finance is so widely read. His articles are widely taken as something like the conventional wisdom. This is a great tragedy, as, despite the fact that Michael Lewis is unarguably a great writer, he's a terrible journalist. Reading a Michael Lewis article on finance is much like watching the evening news. It gives you the impression that you're well informed, but in reality, you've been deceived by noise.
The entire piece is a good read, and reveals that:
• Germany didn't have a financial crisis,• Lewis is overboard on the turd thing. Without revealing the source, the funniest comment I heard was that his kid is getting potty trained, which makes him overexposed to poop. I don't find that hard to believe :)• Lewis didn't talk about how Germany managed to not get wet when it was raining all over the world. Yeah, that's true. For the stories don't tell you enough.• Lewis' Iceland piece left out the villains. (Read)• There is a toilet museum in Delhi!◦ He wrote, in 2007, about how the "growing derivatives markets" brought stability to the economic systemThe Sarbanes-Oxley Act sticks a wrench in the American market for initial public offerings, and the capital-raising business simply removes itself to London and Hong Kong. Thailand installs capital controls and the markets force it to reverse its policy, virtually overnight -- again with nary a ripple. The Brazilian real is now less volatile than the Swiss franc; Botswana's debt is now more highly rated than Italy's. Oil prices double, the U.S. housing market tanks -- no matter what happens, financial markets adjust quickly and without hysteria. …
There are obviously a few things to worry about just now in the world, but the inability of traders to find a sensible price for the spread between European junk and European Treasuries isn't one of them.
◦ Uh oh.◦ Janet Tavakoli totally kills him for that, saying he mangled facts in his eagerness to create a story. Janet was one of those that predicted the crisis and maintains, with strong evidence, that wall street banks behaved recklessly, and knowingly frauded customers.
I've felt for a while since that Vanity Fair article that Lewis held something back. There were obviously enough juicy tidbits to work with – with Deutsche Bank being one of the major players in the worldwide crisis, with German banks levered
more than 50 to 1 (which implies that a 2% drop in asset values will wipe them out) and consequently, with their banking system allowing them to lie and borrow against collateral that, in other less blind countries, would classify as toilet paper. No, they have indeed not had a financial crisis, but they are like a pig that keeps getting fatter and looks healthier until…that day.
The drama of Europe will have to be written. I will look forward to books by Roger Lowenstein, Niall Ferguson, Frank Partnoy and yes, even Michael Lewis. Because to piece the story together, you have to read more than one book, and read more than one web site. Of the lot, I would (now) give Lewis the least importance. He is entertaining, but indeed has dropped in my mind after the above articles. I'll read his books, but won't expect to get the full story.
(Note: I have recommended his book "
Panic" on the right sidebar of this blog. It consists of writing from a number of authors, not just Lewis. I still think his other books are good reads.)
Read the full article at
"The size of local currency bond markets in emerging East Asia continued to expand in the first half of this year, rising to USD5.5 trillion at the end of June, 2.4% higher in local currency terms than at the end of March, and 7.7% more than at the end of June 2010. The overall emerging East Asian market's growth was driven by corporate bonds, which grew by 4.4% quarter-on-quarter. The PRC's corporate bond market grew at a more rapid pace of 6.3% in the same period and is now the region's largest corporate bond market."
Read the full report - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_sep_2011.pdf?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
Read the news release - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_news_release_sep_2011.pdf?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
Read past issues - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/regional/abm.php?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
Read the full report - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_sep_2011.pdf?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
Read the news release - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_news_release_sep_2011.pdf?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
Read past issues - http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/regional/abm.php?src=newsletter&id=Vd7k9wdkOhnXujvrtQLVzHQl3Ygf9j
A whole-time board member of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the stock market regulator, has complained to the government that he and his family are at "grave" risk after his letter to the Prime Minister complaining against Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the minister's advisor Omita Paul, and his chairman U K Sinha, was sent to the finance ministry — and his identity leaked.
In that first letter sent on June 1, K M Abraham, a 1982 IAS Kerala-cadre officer — his term in SEBI ended on July 20 — alleged that Mukherjee and Paul put pressure on Sinha to "manage" some high-profile corporate cases and, in the process, undermined the regulator's integrity.
Abraham's letter referred to several enforcement cases against groups including Sahara, Reliance Industries Ltd and ADAG companies, Bank of Rajasthan and MCX-SX, a new stock exchange that currently offers trading facilities in currency derivatives.
"While reviewing these cases in his three months as Chairman SEBI, Shri U K Sinha has directly or indirectly, referred to how these cases are sensitive and are engaging the attention of the Union Minister for Finance or Smt Omita Paul, Advisor to the Finance Minister," Abraham alleged.
Sinha had replaced C B Bhave as SEBI chairman on February 18 this year.
A fortnight after receiving Abraham's letter, the PMO sent a copy to Economic Affairs Secretary in the finance ministry, R Gopalan, for his comments. Expressing anguish at this, Abraham wrote again to the Prime Minister on June 24.
"I couldn't have gone to the Finance Minister who (as U K Sinha disclosed) had conveyed his interest in a few cases in SEBI to the Chairman personally.
Giving a copy of my letter that bears specific references to corporate houses, to the Finance Ministry, under the present circumstances can have the unintended consequence of exposing our lives and safety to grave risks," he said.
Sinha did not respond to an email sent by The Indian Express almost 10 days ago.
When contacted, Paul said: "I do not know Abraham. I have never spoken to him. The Finance Ministry has sent its response on the issue to the PMO, the Department of Personnel and Training and the Central Vigilance Commissioner."
Paul referred the newspaper to a Finance Ministry official, who said that Abraham was "perhaps raising these issues" because he was trying to deflect allegations against him.
These relate to his purchase of a flat in Mumbai built by Kohinoor Planet Construction Ltd. The flat is in the same complex where the National Stock Exchange, an entity regulated by SEBI, bought commercial space, raising questions of conflict of interest.
Further, the official said, Abraham may have been cut up with the Ministry for not extending his tenure by another two years and with the new SEBI chairman for not clearing a file relating to his appointment as Director in the National Institute of Securities Market. He was the only candidate shortlisted by a search committee set up during Bhave's tenure.
The institute is a public trust set up by SEBI to add market quality through educational initiatives.
Upon receiving Abraham's letter from the PMO, Gopalan wrote to Sinha on June 21 seeking his comments. After two reminders from the ministry on June 29 and July 5, Sinha replied that Abraham's allegations are "completely baseless, motivated and are an attempt to tarnish the image of the government; apart from being a malicious attack on me as Chairman of Sebi".
In his July 8 letter, Sinha also said Abraham was "under severe stress and tension" for the last one month or so.
"He appears to be suffering from an insecurity complex which has got aggravated after some media articles regarding CBDT probing certain properties purchased by him and by (one) Mr M S Sahoo, other whole-time member," Sinha wrote to the ministry. He, however, said in the letter that Sebi — after verification of facts on Abraham's purchase of the flat — sent reports on February 11, March 14, May 9, May 25 and July 4 that "the allegations are not true".
Sinha added: "His (Abraham's) behaviour is being erratic and he seems to be under some delusion about threat to his family."
When contacted, Abraham said: "I had applied for a Provident Fund loan from the government for purchasing the flat." Further, he said, there are thousands of entities regulated by SEBI and each of them may have commercial space in Mumbai. "Does that mean, I cannot buy a flat in any complex where an entity regulated by SEBI has bought space?"
In his June 1 letter to the Prime Minister, Abraham had said: "Sinha mentioned that 'they are not interested in too many cases in SEBI', and if he is able to 'manage' these few cases, then it becomes 'easy' for him." On a few occasions, he wrote, the SEBI Chairman mentioned that, "the 'Big Man' (which he then clarifies is the Union Finance Minister) is interested, and that he has personally told him so".
Several times, he wrote, "the Chairman has aired his sad frustration that the 'Lady' (referring to Smt Omita Paul, Advisor to the Union Finance Minister) is controlling everything — and all such things are being done at her instance… I have heard him mention that it is so difficult to interact with the Finance Ministry."
After proposing cures to the menace of corruption, TOI approached some of India's best brains and asked them for suggestions on ways to curb the one problem that is agitating the mind of every Indian. Each of them was asked to suggest three remedies. Here is what these eminent professionals, representing various sections of society, had to say
NARESH CHANDRA
FORMER CABINET SECRETARY
TACKLE THE MENACE from the inside, since outside agencies can't do much.
UNNECESSARY CONCENTRATION on agencies such as the CVC and the CAG should go.
HOLD THE SUPERVISOR responsible. Strengthen vertical controls in property registration offices or in DDA or at municipal corporations.
K SRINATH REDDY
CHIEF | PRIME MINISTER'S HEALTH PANEL BLUE-COLLAR CORRUPTION needs better pay scales and income security, strict monitoring and swift grievance redressal.
WHITE-COLLAR CORRUPTION calls for robust regulatory system, vigilance & prompt prosecution. GO FOR transparent systems, limit discretionary patronage & enable effective action by Lokpal.
WHITE-COLLAR CORRUPTION calls for robust regulatory system, vigilance & prompt prosecution. GO FOR transparent systems, limit discretionary patronage & enable effective action by Lokpal.
TSR SUBRAMANIAN
FORMER CABINET SECRETARY
Different methods have to be used to tackle corruption at different levels but the Lokpal is not a one-point solution.
WHERE THE LOKPAL can help is in asking politicians and senior bureaucrats to step down if it finds that primafacie there is evidence against them. This will put pressure on the judiciary to act fast. IF YOU EXTEND the Lokpal to the lower level then the system will collapse. So you need strong local-level systems. You can create a local level, may be divisional level system, which works under the supervision of the state Lokayukta and ensure quicker decisions.
AT THE SAME TIME, it is important to have a system to eliminate political interference starting from the local level.
V M KATOCH
DIRECTOR GENERAL | ICMR E-GOVERNANCE IS KEY to ridding corruption. Once everything becomes online, there will be little opportunity for corruption. A perfect example is that of railway tickets. ALL GOVT PROJECTS must betime-bound. Fixed time for all projects failing which a strict penalty for those involved.
ALL THOSE INVOLVED in technical evaluation of bids must have clear well-defined instructions, especially on rejection criteria. No committee should have the power to relax any rules midway.
HARISH SALVE
SENIOR COUNSEL
ELECTORAL REFORMS to eliminate the corrupt and criminals.
TRANSPARENCY in leasing out national resources.
DELINK PSUs from ministries, run them by professionals and list them.
DOWNSIZE GOVT and pay realistic salaries.
RAM JETHMALANI
MP | RAJYA SABHA
THE PRIME MINISTER MUST BE DIRECTLY ELECTED by people and be accountable for corruption in his council of ministers.
THE JUDICIARY MUST BE COMPLETELY purified to eliminate advocates with political leanings becoming judges.
IT IS CRITICAL TO IMPROVE CHARACTER and efficiency of investigating.
PRAKASH SINGH
FORMER DG | UP POLICE & BSF DEPOLITICISE and rejuvenate state polices' anti-corruption and vigilance departments. REINVENT CBI, free it from governmental control.
AUDIT GOVERNMENT'S FUNDING
and social funding in a very transparent manner.
IQBAL CHAGLA
SENIOR COUNSEL
CIVIL SOCIETY cannot impose a law on the nation. That is the job of the Parliament. We have stringent laws to deal with corruption. We must enforce them strictly. Action in punishing the guilty must not only be done, but seen to be done, so that it sends out a strong message.
PROSECUTE both, the bribe-taker and bribe-giver.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, people must be self disciplined so that bribery stops. There are no readymade answers but there has to be collective consciousness of what is good and bad.
AJIT DOVAL
FORMER DIRECTOR | IB BEYOND THE LAWS we are discussing at the national level, I am more concerned about the need to improve the situation at the cutting-edge level of administration, offices with which our public have a lot of dealings.
AGENCIES SUCH AS THE CBI, ED
etc that enforce the laws should be made independent, efficient and accountable. SENIOR LEADERSHIP in every department must be held accountable for any corruption detected in their department. This is not covered under the present jurisprudence, but is very important to end corruption. So if a subordinate is caught for corruption then the supervisor must be administratively held accountable.
IN ALL PUBLIC DELIVERY OFFICES
touts must go, they should be brought under the ambit of law. If touts are operating in a department then it must be presumed that officers in that office are responsible for it. It is important to shut out intermediaries from our passport and driving licence offices.
VENU SRINIVASAN
MANAGING DIRECTOR | TVS
Every time there's a scam or an allegation, the first reaction is to increase deterrence. But I feel we need to reduce the opportunity for corruption in the first place. Deterrence comes later.
MY FIRST SUGGESTION is to ensure fair, open and transparent awarding of contracts with regard to infrastructure projects or mining or land acquisition for industry. I have noticed, except for a few exceptions, land acquired for industry has not faced too much of public anger or angst because it has meant jobs and more opportunities. Opaque or ambiguous awarding of contracts leads to public anger and offers a huge opportunity for corruption.
WE NEED TO DO a rethink on the way liberalisation seems to be heading back towards over-regulation. Every ministry is suddenly looking for a regulator with the first whiff of an allegation or scam. A regulator is necessary in a situation where an oligopoly can diddle the public out of their right. It is common globally to have a financial regulator and a food regulator makes sense to ensure standardisation. But regulation should be minimum otherwise we would be going right back to the days of licence-permit raj. PROPER ENFORCEMENT OF LAWS is a must. India does not lack regulation. What we need is free and fair enforcement of those laws. And it can start with traffic laws on the streets. Corruption is not just about money. It is also about ethics in public life. Anything that violates it can trigger public anger.
ANU AGA
FORMER CHAIRPERSON | THERMAX GROUP
POLITICAL PARTY funding should be legitimised. Payments should be made only through cheques
COMPANIES SHOULD ADMIT that there is corruption and admit there is dishonesty and sign a code of right conduct. Since they are pushed into it as companies cannot do without paying it, there should be a mechanism by which they can sit across the table with the government to address it.
GET RID OF the nexus between politicians and builders and mining companies. There should be zero tolerance for it.
RAHUL BAJAJ
CHAIRMAN, BAJAJ AUTO | MP, RAJYA SABHA
ENACTMENT OF A STRONG Lokpal Bill. This should be stronger than the bill introduced by the government in Parliament, but not as strong as that demanded by the civil society through the Jan Lokpal bill.
STATE FUNDING OF ELECTIONS. This should be part of the electoral reform process and must be undertaken urgently. There should be a mechanism to recognise political parties. The state funding should be for only those political parties whose accounts are transparent, clean and audited, and have been submitted to the Election Commission for scrutiny.
ELECTORAL REFORMS.
This should include holding elections to Lok Sabha & state Assemblies simultaneously every five years with no mid-term polls.
HARSH MARIWALA
CMD, MARICO | PRESIDENT, FICCI
BRING IN GOODS & SERVICES TAX
which will remove tax evasion. Corruption takes place when there are multiple levels of taxes.
BRING IN ELECTORAL REFORMS and transparency in the funding process of
political parties.
HAVE A PROPER MECHANISM
for use of discretionary powers; such as the one under which mines are alloted.
RAMAKANT PANDA
SENIOR CARDIAC SURGEON
Corruption is the biggest stumbling block to the country's progress. The fight to eradicate corruption must be multi-pronged & broadbased. Opinion of a wider section of society must be taken into account while not subverting the democratic and parliamentary process.
WE NEED STRONG LOKPAL & LOKAYUKTA laws with teeth but at the same time strong deterrence against misuse (as is happening with RTI where people are using it more for personal gain than fight corruption).
BETTER INSPECTION of criminal records of political aspirants.
INTRODUCING ETHICS and moral education at school and college level.
JM LYNGDOH
FORMER CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER
THE FIRST THING is to change the electoral system. The first-past-the-post system needs to go. If I get one vote more than you I get to represent the entire constituency. This system promotes the use of money. A person who spends more money will wield more power, that's the assumption everybody makes. The firstpast-the-post system is at root of the requirement for much money. That's why in the present system they start looting the budget once they are elected and that money becomes black money. Some of it is invested in the country in real estate and some of it is sent to the tax havens abroad and returns when there is another round of elections. The first-past-thepost system is concerned with re-election and has no concern for good governance.
WE SHOULD GO for proportional representation where it will be a contest between parties. When it is a contest between parties things will tend to get less personalised and use of money is going to be much less.
IN DEVELOPED DEMOCRACIES today, people have realised politicians do not have the time or inclination to handle the more complex aspects of governance. So these complex matters of governance are hived off from the government to autonomous unelected bodies of experts. Issues such as 2G and 3G are complex and should be handed over to an autonomous unelected body of experts and ministers should not interfere with these institutions just as they can't with the Supreme Court and the Election Commission. You need more institutions such as the Election Commission and the Supreme Court in more areas of governance.
KISHORE BIYANI
FOUNDER | FUTURE GROUP
OUR VALUE SYSTEM of the past has to be revived. Honesty, putting the nation first — all these values were an important part of our culture. Corporates should also inculcate values in their employees.
OUR LEARNING
needs to start from home.
WORK ON IMPROVING
salaries and rewards for professionals across the private and public sector.
ABHISHEK MANU SINGHVI
SPOKESPERSON | CONGRESS
METHODICAL DELETION of discretionary powers at all levels.
MARKET VALUE of land be fixed and dealings below it be scrutinised.
PUNITIVE AND DETERRENT action against corrupt in a time-bound manner.
MEASURES LIKE LOKPAL, strengthening of prosecution, CVC and CBI.
HARSH NEOTIA
CHAIRMAN | AMBUJA REALTY
THERE SHOULD BE a greater transparency in allocation of resources. Complete transparency in the licensing process of oil blocks, iron ore blocks, spectrum allocation, would reduce chances of corruption at macro level.
GOVERNMENT SHOULD TRY to eliminate shortages. As long as there is a shortage, there will be corruption. TEN YEARS AGO, one had to bribe officials for a telephone line because it was not easily available. Now nobody pays a bribe.
BIMAL JALAN
FORMER RBI GOVERNOR
WE NEED TO REDUCE the "economic incentives" for politics. Those who join the government cannot defect without having to seek re-election. The pre-2003 procedure for elections to Rajya Sabha should be restored.
ANOTHER POLITICAL PRIORITY is to provide highest priority for hearing of cases of elected leaders with criminal antecedents. Their cases should be mandatorily decided within six months after their election. Such a procedure would effectively "reverse" the incentive for criminals to choose politics in order to delay investigation of their cases and possible conviction.
IF UPSC CAN APPOINT civil servants through a competitive and open system for life-time employment, there is no reason why a similar autonomous agency, like Public Sector Enterprises Board (PSEB) cannot be given full powers of supervision over the management of public enterprise with accountability to ministries concerned.
LOUD & CLEAR A supporter of Anna Hazare during the jail bharo andolan at Azad Maidan in Mumbai, soon after the anticorruption crusader was arrested in New Delhi earlier this week
The US economy created no jobs and the unemployment rate held steadily higher at 9.1 percent in August, fueling concerns that the US is heading for another recession.
It was the first time since World War II that the economy had precisely net zero jobs created for a month.
Economists had been expecting the report to show a net of 75,000 jobs created, an unusually low number considering the US is technically more than two years removed from the end of the last recession.
Stocks sold off sharply following the report, while bond prices rose and the US dollar fell nearly 2 percent against the Swiss franc.
Markets had been closely watching the August report in hopes that the employment picture would begin to show signs of recovery.
Stocks have slumped more than 10 percent since the beginning of May as concerns grew that the debt and deficit problem was beginning to overwhelm hopes of a recovery following the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
Private payrolls actually rose 17,000, but that was offset by continued shrinkage in government. The number of people unemployed remained unchanged at 14 million.
It was a dismal way to kick off the Labor Day weekend when Americans are supposed to be celebrating work, not bemoaning the lack of it.
"We're in this very flattish-type phase," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab in San Francisco. "The only relatively good news, and I would emphasize 'relatively,' is we're not in firing mode, not in a job-loss mode. We're in an extraordinarily slow job-gain mode."
The unemployment rate that counts those not looking for work rose to 16.2 percent, tied for the highest in 2011.
The numbers could have been even worse.
The government's birth-death model, which approximates the amount of businesses created and lost during the month, added 87,000 jobs.
The average duration of unemployment edged lower to 40.3 weeks from its previous record high of 40.4 weeks in July. However, the median level spiked from 21.2 to 21.8 weeks.
Among the more disturbing numbers: the amount of people "marginally attached to the labor force" rose to 2.6 million from 2.4 million. These are workers not included in the unemployment count because they had not sought work in the past four weeks but have looked in the past year.
Health care and mining saw more jobs in the month, but telecommunications and government both posted substantial losses. It was unclear how much impact the Verizon strike, where 45,000 walked off their jobs for two weeks, had on the total count. Many of those workers likely received paychecks during the Labor Department's counting period and may not be included in the number released Friday.
Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs, construction dropped 5,000 and retail lost 8,000.
President Obama is set to deliver a speech to Congress on Thursday that will outline the administration's jobs plan as the 2012 election nears.
"There are things that we know work that are waiting for action by the Congress," US Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis told CNBC.
"I do believe that we're going in the right direction, but we need cooperation and it begins with members of the House and the Senate agreeing to do something now," she added.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet past the $2.5 trillion mark through monetary easing measures geared at boosting spending.
However, the economy remains mired at 1 percent growth, and a report this week showedmanufacturing edging towards contraction levels.
"Jobs creation remains weak, because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive and ineffective business regulations, and increased health care mandates and costs do not address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation—the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies," Peter Morici, economist at the University of Maryland, said in an analysis.
The report also showed that job creation in July, which originally came in better than expected, actually wasn't as good as thought. The 117,000 jobs originally announced was cut to 85,000, while June's number fell from 46,000 to a mere 20,000. That makes four consecutive months of sub-100,000 job growth when most economists believe that 150,000 is the minimum number needed to reduce the unemployment rate meaningfully.
"Though much attention is being paid to ‘zero job growth’ in August, the real news in today’s numbers is that job growth is worse than in recent months, and the nation continues to produce far fewer jobs than needed to meaningfully reduce the unemployment rate," Heidi Shierholz, economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., said in a statement. "In fact, in some ways the report was less than zero in that weekly hours fell, as did hourly earnings."
Average hourly earnings slid 3 cents to $23.09 while average weekly hours edged lower to 34.2.
Unemployment rates held steady across the major categories, with whites at 8.9 percent, Hispanics at 11.3 percent and blacks at 16.7 percent. The rate for women is a comparatively low 8.0 percent.
There were 331,000 more people working in August than July. But 430,000 more were in the category of working part-time for economic reasons.
( Source: CNBC )
AUGUST 29, 2011
Traders Seek Salvation From Correlation
Is stock picking a dead art?
It has looked that way in recent weeks, as macro issues such as the solvency of European countries and fears of a global economic slowdown have overshadowed fundamental differences between companies. The consequence is that stocks are moving in tandem, indicating a high degree of correlation.
Based on one-month trailing movements, S&P 500-index stocks have a correlation of 80%, even higher than the 73% peak reached during the crisis in late 2008, says Ana Avramovic of Credit Suisse.
The impact is felt by everyone from small investors to the most sophisticated hedge-fund managers, who often go long and short different stocks rather than bet on market direction. Indeed, Ms. Avramovic points out that hedge funds tend to perform better when correlation declines and suffer when it increases. That explains the conservative tack many funds took in August, when some pushed their cash allocations to 90% or more.
The big fear for investors is that correlation will remain permanently elevated. While August's turbulence can be blamed on specific macro issues, correlation levels have trended higher in the last few years. That suggests structural changes may have played a role.
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One potential reason is the popularity of exchange-traded funds. ETFs account for more than 30% of volume in U.S. stock markets, compared with just 2% in 2000, Credit Suisse says. It's reasonable to expect ETF trading to drive correlation higher because many of the vehicles are tied to stock indexes.
Even so, ETFs were by no means the beginning of index-based trading. Mutual-fund managers have traded baskets of stocks tracking the S&P 500 for decades. Stock index futures began trading in 1982 and they remain far larger than ETFs. According to CME Group, the value of CME E-mini S&P 500 futures traded each day is more than four times the combined volume of SPDR S&P 500 ETF and iShares S&P 500 Index ETF.
Another trend that may have boosted correlation is the decline in structured products. Before the 2008 crisis, banks in Europe and the U.S. created and sold many billions of dollars in structured notes tied to options on single stocks, says Michael Schmanske, head of U.S. index volatility trading at Barclays Capital. The vehicles generated income by selling such options for a premium, in turn creating a larger and broader market for individual-stock options, he says. But for reasons including counterparty risk, structured products went out of favor in the crisis.
The result has been that a range of market participants, from big banks to hedge funds, have adopted more macro-oriented strategies. And even if there's no evidence that high-frequency trading firms are a source of correlation in their own right, they are likely to reinforce it by following other participants and trading products like ETFs.
All that suggests that correlation could remain higher in coming years than before the crisis. The trouble today is that there's no clear path to a resolution of Europe's sovereign-debt crisis or a clean bill of health for the U.S. economy. In both cases, it could take months before investors have real visibility. In the meantime, stock pickers might want to brush up on their macro knowledge.
