Daily Silicon Valley Reporter
YouTube Extends Partner Program Reach. YouTube has extended the reach of its YouTube Partner program to 20 countries. This means anyone from those countries who wants to make money off videos on YouTube (and has monetized one already) can access tips to expand the reach of their audience.
Facebook Updates Addresses With Usernames. Facebook is making a few adjustments to its user URLs, to top off everyone's home page addresses with a custom username. If you haven't picked a vanity URL yet, Facebook will assign you one, which will also double up as the first bit of your Facebook email address. This change will kick in over the next few weeks, before which you will still be able to custom-pick your username.
French Designer At Work On Apple's Upcoming Project. Design at Apple has always been a big deal. Famous French designer Philippe Starck has now said in a radio interview that a "big project" that he's been working on with Apple that's "quite revolutionary" will be out in another 8 months. While this makes good sense given Apple's obsession with aesthetics, for now it's not at all clear what that product will be, or how enormous its implications are.
North Korea Rocket Launch Fizzles. North Korea stuck its neck out yesterday, and, in violation of UN Security Council regulations, launched a long-range rocket. Its flight was short-lived, though--the rocket broke apart and fell into the sea a few moments after liftoff. But that was time enough to raise a fair amount of international alarm.
Google Proposes Stock Split. Google announced Q1 results yesteday, revealing $10.65 billion in revenue (a 24% increase year-on-year) and a profit of $10.08 per share (a shade higher than the $9.64 analysts had predicted). The company also announced a stock restructuring plan involving a 2-for-1 stock split, which would create a non-voting class of share. This ultimately means cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin would maintain control of the company.
Germany Stays Firm On iCloud Push Ban. Germany has upheld its decision to ban Apple's suspend notifications for iCloud and MobileMe users, due to a patent lawsuit filed by Motorola Mobility. Apple first suspended the service in February, while lodging a complaint with the EU about Motorola's patent practices. Thanks to additional complaints from Microsoft--Motorola petitioned to ban the sale of the Xbox and other products--the EU is now investigating Motorola.
Barnes & Noble Launches Night-time Nook. B&N's newest Nook is a reader built for the dark, letting pre-snooze readers comfortably flick through their bedtime reading after the lights are out. The reader, costing $136, comes with GlowLight front-lit tech that's easier on the eyes, and is supposed to not disturb others sleeping next to you.
YouTube Extends Partner Program Reach. YouTube has extended the reach of its YouTube Partner program to 20 countries. This means anyone from those countries who wants to make money off videos on YouTube (and has monetized one already) can access tips to expand the reach of their audience.
Facebook Updates Addresses With Usernames. Facebook is making a few adjustments to its user URLs, to top off everyone's home page addresses with a custom username. If you haven't picked a vanity URL yet, Facebook will assign you one, which will also double up as the first bit of your Facebook email address. This change will kick in over the next few weeks, before which you will still be able to custom-pick your username.
French Designer At Work On Apple's Upcoming Project. Design at Apple has always been a big deal. Famous French designer Philippe Starck has now said in a radio interview that a "big project" that he's been working on with Apple that's "quite revolutionary" will be out in another 8 months. While this makes good sense given Apple's obsession with aesthetics, for now it's not at all clear what that product will be, or how enormous its implications are.
North Korea Rocket Launch Fizzles. North Korea stuck its neck out yesterday, and, in violation of UN Security Council regulations, launched a long-range rocket. Its flight was short-lived, though--the rocket broke apart and fell into the sea a few moments after liftoff. But that was time enough to raise a fair amount of international alarm.
Google Proposes Stock Split. Google announced Q1 results yesteday, revealing $10.65 billion in revenue (a 24% increase year-on-year) and a profit of $10.08 per share (a shade higher than the $9.64 analysts had predicted). The company also announced a stock restructuring plan involving a 2-for-1 stock split, which would create a non-voting class of share. This ultimately means cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin would maintain control of the company.
Germany Stays Firm On iCloud Push Ban. Germany has upheld its decision to ban Apple's suspend notifications for iCloud and MobileMe users, due to a patent lawsuit filed by Motorola Mobility. Apple first suspended the service in February, while lodging a complaint with the EU about Motorola's patent practices. Thanks to additional complaints from Microsoft--Motorola petitioned to ban the sale of the Xbox and other products--the EU is now investigating Motorola.
Barnes & Noble Launches Night-time Nook. B&N's newest Nook is a reader built for the dark, letting pre-snooze readers comfortably flick through their bedtime reading after the lights are out. The reader, costing $136, comes with GlowLight front-lit tech that's easier on the eyes, and is supposed to not disturb others sleeping next to you.
We have seen that profit booking has began at the start of the April after S&P 500 touched multi year high . All of a sudden the optimism vaned and stock has reacting to the fundamental problems related to the Europe and more specifically spain and italy.
If we look at the first quarter, we have pretty much solid data from jobs, labor market and easy monetary policies from central banks and moreover the LTRO 1 & LTRO 2 ( European central bank funded ultra cheap money to european banks drawn in to the risky assets i the markets ) The effect seems to be vanished and again bond yield of the countries like spain and italy have started rising sharply from last week.
Investors wanted the correction since march but market has been resilient due to the optimism and liquidity.
Now the scene favors the bears as those debt problems from Europe were started making a headlines and provide an entry point to those investors who almost missed the first quarter rally. But according to the sentiment, investors should wait for deeper correction as Europe problem may aggravated and stocks may see some more correction lasting throughout april and may as it is known as " Sell in May" event.
S&P 500 has broken the 1370 key level, although it has reacted sharply on the next day and closed above it but according to the action on friday, market just hold the 1370 levels and this move will be viewed as a lower top, lower bottom formation. which will ultimately make the stock market to go lower levels. Next support for S&P 500 is 1330.
Trade the markets accordingly and don't just get invested fully in this corrective phase as you might get 10% deeper correction.
If we look at the first quarter, we have pretty much solid data from jobs, labor market and easy monetary policies from central banks and moreover the LTRO 1 & LTRO 2 ( European central bank funded ultra cheap money to european banks drawn in to the risky assets i the markets ) The effect seems to be vanished and again bond yield of the countries like spain and italy have started rising sharply from last week.
Investors wanted the correction since march but market has been resilient due to the optimism and liquidity.
Now the scene favors the bears as those debt problems from Europe were started making a headlines and provide an entry point to those investors who almost missed the first quarter rally. But according to the sentiment, investors should wait for deeper correction as Europe problem may aggravated and stocks may see some more correction lasting throughout april and may as it is known as " Sell in May" event.
S&P 500 has broken the 1370 key level, although it has reacted sharply on the next day and closed above it but according to the action on friday, market just hold the 1370 levels and this move will be viewed as a lower top, lower bottom formation. which will ultimately make the stock market to go lower levels. Next support for S&P 500 is 1330.
Trade the markets accordingly and don't just get invested fully in this corrective phase as you might get 10% deeper correction.
Facebook is set to raise capital with its upcoming initial public offering, which has a target valuation on the social-media giant as high as $110 billion.
Here are the detailed analysis of some figures.
When will the IPO take place?
All reports point to May of this year. Dates of May 17 or May 24 have been mentioned by people close to the matter.
Bankers and Facebook management are currently looking at a target date of May 16 or May 17 to price the deal — with trading commencing the following day.
What might push the deal back to May 24 is Facebook’s recent $1 billion acquisition of Instagram. The Securities and Exchange Commission has to okay the deal, and while that’s expected there could be some unforeseen complications that push the May 17 date back a week or so.
Facebook filed for its IPO on Feb. 1, 2012.
How much will shares of Facebook cost?
Recent transactions on the private market put estimates of the price of a single Facebook share at between $38 and $40.
What exchange is Facebook going to list on?
Facebook has chosen the Nasdaq over the New York Stock Exchange. The NYSE is widely seen as the home of the traditional “blue chip” company, while the Nasdaq’s reputation is more associated with Silicon Valley — and more to Facebook’s image.
Who is handling the IPO for Facebook?
Some 31 banks are advising on the deal, but the main players are Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan,Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Barclays and Allen & Company.
How much money is Facebook expected to raise with the IPO?
At least $5 billion, according to most analysts’ estimates. That would make it the largest Internet-related IPO on record.
When can investors jump in to buy Facebook stock?
The moment the stock debuts on the Nasdaq.
However, many market experts say that the problem with immediately jumping into an IPO is that insiders, such as hedge fund managers, are buying up shares that push up the price.
Normal traders are advised to wait for a couple of days for the stock price to settle back down.
The General Motors IPO of two years ago is cited as a recent example of seeing a stock price initially go up $6 or $7 higher than the IPO the first day, and then settle back down a day or two later.
How big and profitable is Facebook?
The eight-year-old firm has more than 840 million members, and nearly half a billion people around the world log into Facebook every day, according to the latest statistics.
Facebook had revenues of $3.8 billion in 2011, with an operating profit of $1.5 billion.
What happens legally when a firm like Facebook goes public?
The company falls under the guidelines of the SEC.
Facebook will have to follow disclosure rules like holdings and transactions of insiders or the officers and directors of the company. It will have to disclose its financial status on a regular basis and come under surveillance by the SEC on its trading practices. And of course — it will have to hold shareholder meetings.
( Source : CNBC )
Here are the detailed analysis of some figures.
When will the IPO take place?
All reports point to May of this year. Dates of May 17 or May 24 have been mentioned by people close to the matter.
Bankers and Facebook management are currently looking at a target date of May 16 or May 17 to price the deal — with trading commencing the following day.
What might push the deal back to May 24 is Facebook’s recent $1 billion acquisition of Instagram. The Securities and Exchange Commission has to okay the deal, and while that’s expected there could be some unforeseen complications that push the May 17 date back a week or so.
Facebook filed for its IPO on Feb. 1, 2012.
How much will shares of Facebook cost?
Recent transactions on the private market put estimates of the price of a single Facebook share at between $38 and $40.
What exchange is Facebook going to list on?
Facebook has chosen the Nasdaq over the New York Stock Exchange. The NYSE is widely seen as the home of the traditional “blue chip” company, while the Nasdaq’s reputation is more associated with Silicon Valley — and more to Facebook’s image.
Who is handling the IPO for Facebook?
Some 31 banks are advising on the deal, but the main players are Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan,Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Barclays and Allen & Company.
How much money is Facebook expected to raise with the IPO?
At least $5 billion, according to most analysts’ estimates. That would make it the largest Internet-related IPO on record.
When can investors jump in to buy Facebook stock?
The moment the stock debuts on the Nasdaq.
However, many market experts say that the problem with immediately jumping into an IPO is that insiders, such as hedge fund managers, are buying up shares that push up the price.
Normal traders are advised to wait for a couple of days for the stock price to settle back down.
The General Motors IPO of two years ago is cited as a recent example of seeing a stock price initially go up $6 or $7 higher than the IPO the first day, and then settle back down a day or two later.
How big and profitable is Facebook?
The eight-year-old firm has more than 840 million members, and nearly half a billion people around the world log into Facebook every day, according to the latest statistics.
Facebook had revenues of $3.8 billion in 2011, with an operating profit of $1.5 billion.
What happens legally when a firm like Facebook goes public?
The company falls under the guidelines of the SEC.
Facebook will have to follow disclosure rules like holdings and transactions of insiders or the officers and directors of the company. It will have to disclose its financial status on a regular basis and come under surveillance by the SEC on its trading practices. And of course — it will have to hold shareholder meetings.
( Source : CNBC )
From last week AT&T have started unlocking the Iphones officially who met prerequisite conditions set by the company
The conditions are as follows:
1) Customer's account is on good standing
2) Iphone is officially bought and off contract ( means contract already ended or paid early termination fees )
3) If it's more than one Iphone on the same name of the person ( Family plan ), it is also available to unlock if it met above requirements.
Now based on this criteria, company will decide that Iphone is eligible to unlock or not.
How to proceed to unlock
You can either choose calling customer care or online chat with representative.
He/she will check the eligibility as you need to provide IMEI No of Iphone.
then, if you are eligible, he/she will file a case for you. Please make sure that your case has been filed and you get case ID no with expected resolution date ( Sometimes they just send you an email saying that your IPhone is eligible to unlock and you need to connect it to itunes with internet connection in your computer and restore your IPhone and you are done. It will not work directly. you need to file a case and an detailed email with IMEI No and Phone Number will be received after few days and after that email, you will be able to unlock )
Now once case is filed they will give you maximum time for the answer ( Approximately 7 days ). Then you will receive a detailed email with IMEI No and Phone Number of your Iphone with instructions.
Instructions are nothing complicated but pretty much straight forward. You need to connect IPhone with computer and open ITunes. Make sure to have internet connection. Detect the IPhone in ITunes and restore it. It will automatically restore your IPhone and Instructions will show that Your IPhone has been unlocked. There is not any unlock code or anything you need to enter or required.
Usually the process will take 4 to 5 days, once you file the case after confirming the eligibility.
Finally the resolution will be good for all good profile customers.
Note that I have unlocked two of my devises already and it is my self experience.
The conditions are as follows:
1) Customer's account is on good standing
2) Iphone is officially bought and off contract ( means contract already ended or paid early termination fees )
3) If it's more than one Iphone on the same name of the person ( Family plan ), it is also available to unlock if it met above requirements.
Now based on this criteria, company will decide that Iphone is eligible to unlock or not.
How to proceed to unlock
You can either choose calling customer care or online chat with representative.
He/she will check the eligibility as you need to provide IMEI No of Iphone.
then, if you are eligible, he/she will file a case for you. Please make sure that your case has been filed and you get case ID no with expected resolution date ( Sometimes they just send you an email saying that your IPhone is eligible to unlock and you need to connect it to itunes with internet connection in your computer and restore your IPhone and you are done. It will not work directly. you need to file a case and an detailed email with IMEI No and Phone Number will be received after few days and after that email, you will be able to unlock )
Now once case is filed they will give you maximum time for the answer ( Approximately 7 days ). Then you will receive a detailed email with IMEI No and Phone Number of your Iphone with instructions.
Instructions are nothing complicated but pretty much straight forward. You need to connect IPhone with computer and open ITunes. Make sure to have internet connection. Detect the IPhone in ITunes and restore it. It will automatically restore your IPhone and Instructions will show that Your IPhone has been unlocked. There is not any unlock code or anything you need to enter or required.
Usually the process will take 4 to 5 days, once you file the case after confirming the eligibility.
Finally the resolution will be good for all good profile customers.
Note that I have unlocked two of my devises already and it is my self experience.
Among the key findings this year:
• In 2011, 53 global issuers defaulted, down from a record high of 265 in 2009 and 81 defaults in 2010.
• Overall, credit stability was more volatile in 2011, with an increase in both upgrades and downgrades relative to 2010.
• All but one of the 44 companies that began the year with active ratings in 2011 and subsequently defaulted, came from the speculative-grade universe.
Based on 31 years of data and updated annually, the Annual Default and Rating Transition Study tracks the incidence of default and rating changes for industrial, utilities, financial service institutions and insurance companies around the world. It uses transition matrices, Lorenz curves, and cumulative default statistics to examine the correlation between Standard & Poor's ratings and actual defaults.
http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/ratings/DefaultStudy.pdf
2011 Annual Global Corporate Default and Ratings Transition Study
Standard & Poor's global corporate ratings in 2011 have remained in line with their strong historic record, and have continued to serve as effective indicators of default risk of rated credits worldwide on both relative and absolute bases.
Assessing management is a vital skill if you want to find great companies.
By Owen Richards, author
Someone once told me that the thing he liked in company annual reports was the photographs of the board members and the management team. This enabled him "to check how dorky they look". I'm not sure whether this is particularly helpful in share selections for investment purposes, but in an oft-quoted statement by the US investor Warren Buffett, his preference is always to choose companies that he understands, have an able and honest management, and are being offered at a reasonable price.
It should be fairly simple to meet his first criterion and also to make a judgement on whether the price is reasonable. However, it is more difficult to assess management, although a starting point is to look at the quantitative aspects of their effectiveness from their financial reports. Probably the most common measurements of how well a company is being run is to determine its return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA) and earnings per share (EPS) growth.
These are simple ratios to calculate, and then relate them to the company's market capitalisation and the industry it is in. In all cases, it is important to establish the ratios first and then, as far as possible, compare them with companies in the same industry and which have a similar capitalisation.
Some suggested ratios for a healthy, well-run company are:
ROE of greater than 10 per cent and rising
ROA of greater than 15 per cent and rising
EPS growth of about 10 per cent over the past year and rising for the past 18 months.
Low-capitalisation companies, such as software companies and consultancy firms, which are well run, will probably have much higher ratios.
Figures may not lie, but …
We should now be familiar with the saying "figures don't lie, but liars can figure". Investors should always treat any numerical representation with some caution. Although ROE is probably the most popular quantitative measure of management effectiveness, this ratio (like any other) can be manipulated. Companies can artificially maintain a healthy ROE by increasing debt leverage and using share buybacks funded through accumulated cash, to mask a deteriorating performance.
No single metric is ever perfect and different approaches are always appropriate to get a more accurate representation of management performance.
It is a more complex task to make a qualitative assessment of management - that it meets Buffett's "able and honest" test - but essentially it is critical that management's interests are aligned with those of its investors. There is, at present, substantial general interest in the resignation from a famous US investment bank by a senior executive after 12 years with the company. What is different in this case is that his letter of resignation was effectively printed in the New York Times.
The executive describes the culture of the company as "toxic and destructive" and lays the blame for this on the current CEO and president, who he says have "lost hold of the firm's culture on their watch". He cites their major failing as essentially focusing only on "...how can we make the most possible money?" Some commentators have expressed surprise and said that this is what an investment bank is supposed to do.
And, of course, this is true. But as the executive points out, this cannot be at the expense of their clients whom, as well as being referred to internally as "muppets", are allegedly being sold expensive products that are not appropriate to their needs. Nor is this fair to the shareholders, who must see the company's value deteriorate over time as the client base inevitably declines.
Things to look for
There is no doubt that a company's board acting through the company's management (collectively, "management") will largely determine the shared attitudes and beliefs of the company and how well this aligns with the interests of all its stakeholders and especially its shareholders. Although there is no fixed template, there are some characteristics that investors can look to for guidance on how well they can assess their interests will be best served.
Good management should have substantial ownership in the company, often referred to as having "skin in the game", through shareholdings or options. This indicates the belief that there is no better alternative for their money, and should provide some security for investors in knowing that management is unlikely to perform foolishly in the long term with their own wealth at stake.
Keep an eye on major share purchases or sales by board members. If a number are bailing out of the company within a reasonably close timeframe, look for reasons why; but always be mindful that individuals have to buy houses, educate children and diversify their own holdings.
Look for management that acts as a steward of your interests. The worth of management is not necessarily related to a strong performance within a short time, and a good share price does not necessarily indicate a high-quality company. You want people who can invest in projects and activities that create value for the shareholders in the longer term. Still, where the chairman or CEO of a company is also the major shareholder, there is always a possibility that deals may be done that are more in their personal interest than the company's.
Excellent management surely increases investors' value, but excellence must be paid for. You don't want management that unreasonably increases their bonuses at the expense of the shareholders, or pays their top people outrageous salaries. Diverse industries offer diverse amounts, but you should look for companies that reward its officials with compensations that roughly match similar industries.
Wanted: reasons, not excuses
Honesty takes a number of forms. What you want in a CEO is someone who is not afraid to admit they have made mistakes. If something like an earnings disappointment occurs, you deserve an honest explanation as to why and what is planned to overcome it. Too many companies provide only excuses for poor performance and blame external factors, such as the government or the economy. It can also be useful to check the tenure of management. Look for rock-solid management that has been with the company for years.
You should read the section on management's discussions and analysis in the past couple of annual reports and make an assessment of how thoroughly they follow through on their planning and promises. You may find that many of the plans of management were never implemented.
You want a management that is consistent in words and actions. Look at the company's mission statement and its effectiveness. Good mission statements create efficient managements and usually good returns for shareholders. If all you read is corporate jargon and buzz words, management is not being honest with you.
In many ways, if you are interested in a company where the directors are people of known probity and the company is generally acknowledged as well run, your requirement for assessment may be minimal. If business scandal has touched any one of them, however, exercise caution. It is rare for a leopard to change its spots.
Viewing the financial statements every six months is essential, although they do not always tell the whole story. In the final analysis, companies are staffed and run by people, and it is a wise investor who checks as best as possible the people who set out these financial statements.
About the author
Owen Richards has been a trader for some years and is a contributor to local and overseas trading magazines. He has written this story on behalf of the Australian Investors Association, an independent, non-profit organisation aimed at helping its members become more successful long-term investors.
From ASX
Don't miss ASX's new Corporate Profile series, which provides a short video interview to help companies inform investors. Many of these profiles are for small and medium-size resource companies. Each three-minute video usually features a chief executive who explains their background and experience, and gives an overview of their company's business and growth plans. This helps investors put a "face" to companies and learn more about those running the company on a day-to-day basis, in a simple, user-friendly format.
© Copyright 2012 ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691. All rights reserved 2012.
A lot has been said and written about the delisting prospects for Indian arms of various MNCs listed on the Indian bourses, for 2 years now... and stocks have got re-rated in expectancy of such moves. Therefore, rather than re-iterating the broad rationale, which has already been over-emphasized by media and brokerages alike, I'd like to restrict my views on Fresenius Kabi to specifics.
Fresenius Kabi Oncology is 90% owned by the German parent through its Singapore subsidiary and there is time until 3rd June 2013 to either reduce their holding to 75% or to delist the stock.
I would stick my neck out to virtually rule-out the first option (doing a QIP to divest 15% stake) and say that delisting is the ONLY option. Here's my logic
The 10% public holding is widely distributed among 41,817 shareholders, of which 39,635 are retail investors (ironically, as the face value per share is INR 1, this category covers shareholders holding shares having market value up to INR 1.53 crores and hence not strictly retail) - there is no shareholder (institutional or otherwise) who owns more than 1% of the company - total institutional holding is just 2.67%, scattered across 20 investors
Fresenius Kabi Oncology (formerly Dabur Pharma) has NO investor relations machinery in India and this has been the case ever since they acquired the company from the Burmans and NO IR activities have been carried out at all (all information sharing is to be done only at a parent level, as far as interacting with investors / media goes and the global team has repeatedly declined to share strategy for specific countries - in fact, the communication is restricted to what is contained in the standardized global business updates in the form of press / investor releases / annual reports etc)
The Indian subsidiary has absolutely ZERO coverage from a research perspective, which is a logical result of the complete secrecy on the operations and unwillingness to talk to investors / media and absolutely ZERO visibility with investors
As a part of the acquisition, Fresenius also acquired rights to all existing products developed and commercialized by Dabur Research Foundation (DRF) and the team of scientists
The Indian operations have been highly R&D focused and the company spent INR 45.47 crores in FY11 [which is more than 30% of its EBITDA (pre-R&D)] which is significantly higher than the proportionate R&D spends of the average Indian corporate
Investors in India are not sophisticated enough and do not have an appetite for the risks and rewards associated with such R&D spends as has been demonstrated with a lot of companies which focus on building their own pipeline of research products; valuing them involves placing a probability adjusted option value to various research initiatives and companies such as Suven Lifesciences are trading at huge discounts to fair values - benefits can't be captured in the increasingly limited time frames that most public market investors look for these days and most private market investors do not have a mandate from their investors wide enough to allow them to take such risks - retail investors anyways are extremely headline focused (and fail to see beyond the numbers; unfortunately this is true for a number of institutional investors too, who are taking a myopic view towards research)
In the case of Fresenius of course, there is no information that has been shared with investors to showcase the potential upsides from the ongoing R&D initiatives and therefore, there is no way to ascribe a value to it
Purely based on earnings, the stock seems richly valued at 36.87x annualized FY12 EPS and EV of 36.62x annualized FY12 EBITDA
While there are positive developments in terms of potential CRAMs revenues from the Group, just like other strategic initiatives for India, there has been complete secrecy on the potential financial upsides
Under the current regulatory environment, the only route available for Fresenius to prune its stake in the Indian operations to 75%, should they wish to do so, is a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), which would mean a significantly higher amount of disclosures to enable price discovery
There is no reason to believe that the parent is prepared to make the level of disclosures required for any capital raising exercise, leave alone a QIP issuance
There is no reason to believe that the parent has any inclination to prune its holding in the Indian operations but has in fact made all the noises in terms of signalling that they see increased importance for the India operations from a global context
Even if one hypothetically assumes that they decide to go down the route of a QIP, I have serious doubts on institutional interest in the stock at these levels, which means the parent would have to sell at a significant discount.
Fresenius Group does not generally list subsidiaries separately in any geography - the fact that the Indian arm is listed is due to the historical fact - it does however have multiple listings in Germany and on other European bourses for the 3 main business units which it broadly aligns itself under.. the business listed in India is a part of Kabi (which is one of the 3 business units)
The group already has an unlisted operational entity in India, which is wholly-owned for the other business units
As indicated earlier, the parent has been increasing focus on India as can be demonstrated by the following initiatives in May 2011:
The parent took a strategic call to leverage the R&D and manufacturing competencies by entering into CRAMS agreements with the parent and its affiliates for future products without affecting existing product business and Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs).
It also decided to enter into a distribution agreement with the listed company for selling and marketing products of Fresenius Kabi India Private Limited (the unlisted arm) in India.
While it is difficult to pin-point the revenue potential from these strategic initiatives, I don't think it would be an over-statement to say that it could be more than USD 100mn over the next 2 years, from here on in.
Now that I think the case for why delisting is a fait accompli on the Fresenius Kabi Management's mind has been made, let's focus on the modalities and timelines as I see it. As per the regulations, a reverse book building process will have to be initiated and at least 50% of the public shareholding i.e. 5% additional stake needs to be acquired.
Given how widely scattered the shareholding is and given the strategic value of the Indian business in the overall scheme of things and the hanging sword of June 3, 2013, I wouldn't be surprised if intention to delist could be made public in the near future and process initiated within the next 3-4 months.
The risks of a failed delisting offer are too high and the marginal cost of potentially 'over-paying' for the Indian operation is too low for the parent and I would expect them to settle for a delisting price of INR 225 per share, a premium of 47% over the current market price. From a future earnings potential point-of-view as well as asset base point-of-view, I wouldn't say that paying 25x potential FY14 earnings is unacceptable (assuming a 50% CAGR in earnings over 2 years).
The stock has outperformed the markets in recent months but it still merits accumulation at every decline and I would say a 10% allocation to one's portfolio is advisable.
It is a matter of common knowledge that Swelect Energy Systems (formerly Numeric Power Solutions) listed on both BSE and NSE has sold its UPS business to affiliates of Legrand France S.A. for an aggregate consideration of INR 829 crores (including USD 4.5mn for the Singapore subsidiary). Pursuant to announcement of the sale in early Feb '12, the stock did run up for a couple of days, hitting a high of 308/309. However, given that the deal was subject to various approvals and more importantly, owing to concerns about how the promoters would use the cash, the stock corrected shortly thereafter and was later transferred to T group. The stock is languishing at 260 levels with thin trading volumes.
Before I share my views on the company and how I see the story going ahead, I'd like to issue a caveat that I have always liked the company, as most value investors have and I own the stock, therefore, my views should be considered as biased.
I believe this is a perfect time to buy the stock.
First the situation angle for the 'positional traders' - April 10th (tomorrow) is the last date of consummation of the transaction, mutually agreed upon between Numeric and Legrand. Therefore, I would assume an announcement on this front and receipt of cash is imminent. I would also assume that calling of a board meeting for declaration of a special dividend (which the promoters have been clear will be the mode used to distribute some of the cash) is also imminent. While no one knows how generous these guys would be in terms of distribution of the cash, my personal take is that the dividend would be 125-150 bucks a share. The above announcements should be sufficient to result in a 50-60 buck up-move in the stock. The fact that the stock was transferred to T group should in fact be looked as a blessing in disguise as the speculative element built into the stock is therefore low.
Now the more important fundamental call for 'investors'. I have a positive bias towards promoters based in Chennai; given that they more often than not have corporate governance standards better than those prevalent in Hyderabad or Delhi and err on the side of conservatism rather than being adventurous. More specifically, I have always liked the Numeric management, given that like many other Chennai based companies, they have never been 'capital market savvy' and have built the entire business organically from internal accruals, without any dilution whatsoever, besides the negligible sum they raised through an IPO. That's an enviable track record to have for a promoter for sure. Moreover, promoters do not have any unrelated business interests (to my knowledge) and have stayed away from the temptation to invest in real estate and such areas (which is often seen as the easiest way to deploy large pools of capital). If one looks around for parallels, we have seen how Chennai based Amrutanjan has created value for shareholders post sale of some of its surplus assets.
If one looks at the flipside, markets gave a thumbs down to Piramal when they announced the sale of their business to Abbott and hammered the stock down to 340 levels but as clarity has emerged on some of their plans to deploy the cash, the stock did bounce back almost 40% from those levels. In case of Piramal of course, while I believe they will create shareholder value over the long-term, some of the calls they have taken are quite adventurous, to say the least - be it the Vodafone deal or be it direct lending to real estate companies from the listed company. (Yes, the latter is indeed true, although they haven't publicly spoken about it - interactions with their NBFC subsidiary clearly point in this direction). The extreme case would be companies promoted by relatively obscure promoters like Geecee Ventures (formerly Gwalior Chemicals), which have decided to use the book to invest in third-party businesses using a PE approach.
Coming to Swelect Energy (market cap ~INR 260 crores), here's how I would look to value the business:
Consolidated net debt as of FY11 was INR 23 crores and post this transaction, the company would have net cash of INR 650+ crores.
Their residual (non-UPS) business did INR 111 crores in FY11 and while the business-wise split is not readily available, my sense is it would be largely the project management and LED lighting businesses. The skill sets that Numeric used in growing the UPS business should be quite handy in terms of growing the LED lighting business. I'm fairly bullish on this piece delivering steady growth. The solar project management business (EPC contracts and O&M services) is a fast growing business and has seen advent of many serious players in the last two years. There is also a steel foundry business, manufacturing mainly alloy steel castings and valves - specifically for the oil and gas industry, housed in a subsidiary Amex Alloys - expected to do a top line of INR 35 crores this fiscal. In a nutshell, I would conservatively peg the value of these residual businesses at INR 100 crores.
The company has sold only 3 of its 9 manufacturing facilities to Legrand as part of the deal - the real estate value of the remaining facilities could easily be another INR 50 crores. (but some of these could be used for the LED lighting business)
The green energy business looks particularly exciting, given that Tamil Nadu is probably the best place for setting up of wind farms and the company has plans to increase capacity from 1.5MW to 10MW. On the solar side, while they are again looking to invest in the generation side of the business, detailed business plans are still in the works. They are the 3rd company in India and 1st in Tamil Nadu to get REC accreditation for its two 1MW solar PV plants in Tamil Nadu. In other words, they will get market trade-able renewable energy certificates for the power this Coimbatore plant generates - it is expected to start pumping electricity into the grid as early as this month. The equity value of the existing business on the renewable side (based on up and running capacities) should be INR 20 crores.
The next generation seems to be adequately qualified to drive the renewable energy business and I believe Mirunalini Chellappan, the daughter of the promoter has been working on preparing a blue print for Numeric's foray in this space for over 3 years now, since her induction into the business.
I would continue to place my bet on the Management in terms of their execution capabilities on energy efficient lighting solutions and renewable side.
Over the next 1 year, I would expect the company to begin trading closer to cash value and depending on how the strategy plays itself out, over the next 3 years, investors could see more value accretion.
I'd conclude by saying that to my mind, the stock merits a 10% portfolio allocation with a buy and hold strategy for investors with an upside potential of 100% over a 12 month period.
Background
Based on a global survey of investment bankers, private equity companies, and financial analysts, Deloitte's study The Leadership Premium: How companies win the confidence of investors puts a quantitative metric on the effectiveness of leadership to help businesses understand the impact that leadership can have on their performance and market value.
Key findings
The report reveals that the quality of senior leadership—including core capabilities as well as personal qualities such as honesty and integrity—has a direct, and measurable, impact on analysts' assessments of whether companies have been successful and will be successful in the future.
More than 50 percent of stock market analysts surveyed routinely factor leadership into their valuations—and 80 percent award a premium for particularly effective senior teams.
The report indicates that analysts look for three core components when assessing an organisation's leadership strength:
Strategic clarity – a clear vision of what the organisation needs to achieve.
Successful execution – proven ability to meet objectives.
A culture of innovation – commitment to enterprise; an environment for ideas.
In addition, analysts look for two attributes that support these components: effective corporate governance and effective leadership characteristics.
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uk-con-winning-confidence-of-investors.pdf