* Interested buying is seen in Vedanta counters. Keep a tab on Sterlite, Sterlite Tech, Sesa Goa and Hindustan Zinc.
Consider the current rates as the ensuing 52-week's low says a marketman.
* The broad market upmoves was sharper than the benchmark scrips last week. This week, it may be the turn of the benchmarks to dance to the bull tune.
* Bank Nifty has not yet taken off. It is just warming up. That's the feeling of punter pundits.
* An eminent fund manager who was bearish and disappointed with the government's inaction is changing his perspective and was heard talking of buying into select FMCGs, infrastructure stocks, banking stocks and IT. His mantra is simple.....a sector can't give you money….it is the right stock in that sector which rewards you.
* Metals already show signs of recovery. The heat shall continue next week too. That means a rise of at least 50% by
December 2012!
* Himachal Futuristic was locked in upper circuit. Is it Mukesh Ambani's telecom connection at work?
* Genus Power Infrastructure has chalked out a restructuring plan to merge its 40% unlisted associate paper company with itself and then demerging it into a separate listed entity. Buy and hold for 6-9 months.
* Pratibha Industries has decided to sell off its SAW Pipes business to focus only on the water EPC segment. Scrip may shoot up once the deal is done.
* PSL has bagged fresh orders worth Rs.924 crore in Q3FY12 and hopes to get more in Q4FY12. A relatively safe bet at current levels.
* To enhance shareholder value, Ansal Housing has decided to buy back shares at a maximum of Rs.45 per share utilizing upto Rs.11.25 crore. Keep a watch.
* With a likely EPS of Rs.5 on FV of Re.1, Surya Pharma is the cheapest fastest growing pharma company.
* Some low-and-moderately priced banking stocks such as Dena Bank, UCO Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank, Syndicate Bank, IDBI Bank and Indian Overseas Bank are excellent buys for decent gains in the medium-to-long-term, says a banking analyst with a reputed brokerage house.
* Liberty Phosphate is likely to post an EPS of Rs.30 in FY12. The share is going cheap in the fertilizer space.
* Operators shown a keen interest in Manugraph India, which is set to post an EPS of Rs.12 on its small equity of Rs.6 crore. The share can gain 50% in the medium-term from the current level.
* KPIT Cummins are being eyed by some HNIs in anticipation of its FY12 EPS of about Rs.14-15. The share is poised to advance by 20% in the near future.
* Phillips Carbon Black, which recently completed its expansion and a captive power plant, is likely to register an EPS of above Rs.33 in FY12. The shares can be bought for a decent rise.
* Globus Spirits can be bought on its strong fundamentals and improving results. It may record an EPS of Rs.18 in FY12 and further expansion is underway.
* Zensar Technologies is doing well and is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.35 in FY12. This is the cheapest blue chip in the IT space.
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Global - Economy and Market
Mass S&P downgrade, Greek debt impasse hit euro zone
BERLIN/ATHENS - Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro- zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their coveted triple-A status but not EU paymaster Germany, in a Black Friday the 13th for the troubled single currency area.
S&P cut the ratings of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus by two notches and the standings of France, Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch each.
The move puts highly indebted Italy on the same BBB+ level as Kazakhstan and pushes Portugal into junk status.
Very part of U.S. economy is improving except housing, Fed says
Economic activity is accelerating in every region of the U.S. and in every sector of the economy except housing, the Federal Reserve said in its anecdotal Beige Book report. The central bank said retail sales, manufacturing and the services sector are doing especially well.
It's earnings versus Europe for stocks
NEW YORK - Stock investors will return to a tug of war between signs of domestic strength and overseas concerns next week as a batch of critical earnings reports look to add credence to the idea the economy is improving, while credit rating downgrades in Europe will keep that region's difficulties in view.
U.S. corporate dividends are on track to set a record in 2012 U.S. companies are likely to raise dividends to a record of more than $252 billion this year, according to Standard & Poor's. Firms included in the S&P 500 index paid $240.6 billion in dividends in 2011, the most since 2008.
Bank of England keeps benchmark rate at record low
The Bank of England maintained its record-low interest rate of 0.5% and did not announce further stimulus. However, the central bank is expected to take steps in February to stimulate the economy. "Overall, £50 billion more [quantitative easing] next month seems to us to be virtually 'baked in the cake,' " said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec.
Italy bond auction fails to match Spanish success
MILAN - Italy's three-year debt costs fell below 5 percent but its first bond sale of the year failed to match the success of a Spanish auction the previous day, reflecting the heavy refinancing load Rome faces over the next three months.
Dip in China's FX reserves may hasten policy shift
BEIJING - China's official reserves slipped to $3.18 trillion in the final quarter of 2011, signalling that the days of rampant export-led accumulation of foreign currency are numbered and that new monetary policy steps may be needed to counter capital outflows.
China's home prices will keep falling, analysts say
Real estate investment will plummet and home prices will continue to fall in China through the first half of the year, analysts said.
China's property market will undergo a fundamental change this year as government-subsidized homes force prices down, according to the State Council's Development Research Center.
China rejects ban on Iranian oil;
Japan signals support China rejected U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's request that it support tightened economic sanctions on Iran, including cutting off oil imports from the nation. Japan promised to try scaling back oil imports from Iran but stopped short of agreeing to a ban.
Analysis: Economic downturns create opportunities for startups Recessions and other economic downturns lead to more business startups.
More than half of the Fortune 500 companies were launched during such conditions. "When people suddenly have less money to spend, clever entrepreneurs may see an opportunity to set up businesses that give them what they want more cheaply or efficiently," according to The Economist.
India - Economy and Market
Indian economy likely to grow between 7-7.5 pc in FY'12: Kaushik Basu
Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu today said economic growth in the current fiscal could be around 7-7.5 per cent, down from 8.5 per cent a year ago.
Caps set for foreign retail investment in India shares
MUMBAI - Individual foreign investors will be allowed to directly buy up to 5 percent of an Indian company, or 10 percent in aggregate, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday, adding details to an announcement the government made in early January.
Manufacturing sparks big revival in Industry growth after hitting 28-month low NEW DELHI: A strong pullback in manufacturing helped industrial performance stage a smart recovery in November after falling to a 28-month low in the previous month, to the relief of harried policymakers who had begun to worry whether their battle with inflation and an adverse environment had choked off growth.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by a better-than-expected 5.9% in November, rebounding from October's 4.7% contraction (restated from -5.1%) and boosting hopes that a broadbased industrial revival could follow sooner rather than later.
RBI's Basel-III norms may negatively affect loan growth: S&P
REUTERS - The Reserve Bank of India's proposed guidelines for implementing Basel-III norms may "negatively affect" credit growth of a few Indian banks though it will strengthen their capitalisation and credit profiles, Standard and Poor's said.
India forex reserves fall to $293.541 bln
MUMBAI - India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $293.541 billion as of January 6, down from $296.688 billion in the previous week, the Reserve Bank of India said.
Inflation seen falling to 7.5 pct in December
REUTERS FORECAST - India's headline inflation probably fell sharply to
7.5 percent year-on-year in December from 9.11 percent in the previous month, helped by easing food prices, a Reuters poll showed.
West Bengal receives Rs 3000 crore worth investment proposals
West Bengal's effort to woo investors received a boost with Rs 3,000 crore worth of investment proposals which trickled in on Thursday.
Bihar to construct road on Indo-Nepal border
To be completed by 2016, the estimated cost of Rs 1782 crore will be borne by the Centre, state road construction minister Nand Kishore Yadav told reporters here.
Government approves road projects of Rs 5,388 crore in three states
Govt approved three road projects in the states of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh entailing a total investment of Rs 5,388.36 crore.
India to launch spoken web service for farmers
The Indian government is planning to launch a spoken web service that will provide an interactive medium for the farming community.
Punjab Agriculture University experts motivate farmers to adopt resource conservation technologies PAU experts have laid emphasis on the judicious use of fertilisers, harmful effects of paddy straw burning, saving environment and use of 'Leaf Colour Chart LCC for maize, rice and wheat crops.
Technology News –
CSC, a $16 billion IT services giant expands in India
On the back of two strategic acquisitions, the $16.2 billion technology services firm CSC has now announced the opening of its 18th delivery centre in India.
BMC Software to integrate Future Group stores
Future Group today said it has roped in BMC Software to standardise and automate its infotech and delivery processes on a single platform.
Mobile phone cameras: Softwares to enhance utility of the camera
The next time you buy a phone, pay careful attention to its camera. With the right software, you will be able to do a lot more than just take pictures and videos.
Worldwide PC shipments to suffer in 2012 thanks to Thailand floods, says Gartner
Worldwide PC shipments, which suffered a 1.4% decline in December quarter after two quarters of positive growth, are set to suffer significantly during the coming quarters.
Samsung plans hybrid cameras, seeks big sales rise
Samsung aims to more than quadruple sales of small, interchangeable lens cameras this year, as it seeks to move up-market to compete with stronger Japanese rivals.
Samsung aims to more than quadruple sales of small, interchangeable lens cameras this year, as it seeks to move up-market to compete with stronger Japanese rivals.
Apple buys Israeli technology firm Anobit for $500 mn
Apple said it had bought Israel's Anobit, a maker of flash storage technology whose chips it already uses in gadgets such as the iPad.
Apple said it had bought Israel's Anobit, a maker of flash storage technology whose chips it already uses in gadgets such as the iPad.
Info Edge launches common online MBA application platform
Info Edge today launched a common online application form 'The Common App' on its education portal Shiksha.com.
Google wins biggest ever enterprise deal from Spanish bank BBVA
Google won its largest enterprise contract ever from Spanish bank BBVA as the owner of the world’s most popular Web search engine.
In an effort to halt expansion of Japan's massive public debt, Japan's Prime Minister Seeks Doubling National Sales Tax.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan's public debt load, the world's largest, is critical after Standard & Poor's downgraded credit ratings on France, Austria and seven other European nations.
Europe's fiscal situation "isn't a house burning on the other side of the river," Noda said on TV Tokyo Holdings Corp.'s program on Jan. 14. "We must have a great sense of crisis."
Noda reshuffled his cabinet last week, aiming to win support for doubling Japan's 5 percent national sales tax by 2015 to trim the soaring debt. S&P said in November Noda's administration hadn't made progress in tackling the public debt burden, an indication the credit-rating company may be preparing to lower the nation's sovereign grade.
Japan's government, which has enjoyed borrowing costs that are around 1 percent, wouldn't be able to manage its finances if bond yields surged to 3 percent, Noda said last week. The country risks seeing a spike in government bond yields unless it controls a debt load set to approach 230 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Nov. 28.
'Worse and Worse'
Japan's finances are "getting worse and worse every day, every second," Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said in an interview on Nov. 24. Asked if this means he's closer to lowering Japan's credit rating, he said it "may be right in saying that we're closer to a downgrade."
S&P rates Japan AA- and has had a negative outlook on the rating since April. Ogawa said Japan needs a "comprehensive approach" to containing its debt burden, which the government has projected will exceed 1 quadrillion yen ($13 trillion) in the year through March as the nation pays for reconstruction costs from March's record earthquake.
The International Monetary Fund has said a gradual increase of Japan's sales tax to 15 percent "could provide roughly half of the fiscal adjustment needed to put the public-debt ratio on a downward path."
No Winning Play for Japan
If Japan hikes taxes and reduces spending, the Yen will strengthen, and Japanese exports sink.
Demographics and balance of trade issues suggest there will still be insufficient buyers of Japanese bonds that need to be rolled over. Raising taxes in a global recession is not a wise thing to do as it will inhibit growth.
On the other hand, if Japan turns to printing, which I believe it eventually will, Japan would likely go into an inflation spiral.
Massive Debt Rollover Problem
There are no winning plays for Japan, given a debt load set to hit 230 percent of gross domestic product. The US would be advised to pay attention.
The prevailing popular opinion on Japan is that it has suffered two "lost decades" – implying minimal economic growth and falling asset prices , and is typically held as an example of a dire economic condition to try and avoid. While Japan has indeed suffered economically from the bursting of its bubble in 1990, and it faces some serious structural issues today, the popular perception does not quite hold up to closer scrutiny. Richard Koo (Nomura Research Institute) and Daniel Gross (Director of the Centre for European studies) have written on this topic and I summarise below their key arguments:
Daniel Gross:
-Japan has indeed had a low economic growth of 0.6% over the last decade when compared to a growth rate of 1.7% experienced by the US. However, a large part of Europe had similar growth rates over the last decade – notably Germany at 0.6%, Italy's at 0.2% - with only France and Spain performing a bit better.
-Additionally, comparing GDP growth rates can be misleading as they do not take demographics into account. The best method to compare growth rates of developed countries is the GDP per working-age population (WAP-defined as population aged 20-60) which measures the true productive potential of a country and how efficiently it has utilised that potential.
-On the basis of this measure, Japan's GDP/WAP growth rate has exceeded that of the US by about 0.5% per annum, and that of most of Europe. This is because Japan's working-age population has been declining by 0.8% while that of the US has be increasing by about the same rate.
-Japan should be held, not as example of stagnation, but rather of how to squeeze maximum growth from limited potential.
-Another indication that Japan has efficiently utilised its potential is its unemployment rate which has remained constant over the last decade (and never exceeded 5.5%) , while the unemployment rate in the US has approached 10%.
-A good rule of the thumb to estimate average long term GDP growth rates of the G-7 countries is to add 1% of productivity gains to the growth rate of the working-age population. As German and Italian working-age populations start to decline rapidly after 2015, they can be expected to face a Japan like scenario. By contrast, the US, UK and France should continue to experience growing (albeit slowly) working-age populations and there relatively higher GDP growth rates.
Richard Koo:
-Japan faced a severe balance sheet recession in 1990 with the bursting of its real estate and stock bubbles – the loss of wealth due to steep falls in real estate prices (down 87%) and stocks, was equivalent to 3 years of its 1989 GDP – by contrast, the US only lost one year of its 1929 GDP, in terms of wealth, during the Great Depression.
-With the ensuing massive deleveraging by the corporate sector by repayment of debt – equivalent to 6% of GDP - and household savings of 4% , Japan could have lost 10% of GDP every year like the US did during the Great Depression.
-However, Japan managed to avoid a depression due to its aggressive fiscal spending which managed to keep GDP above its 1990 peak and unemployment below 5.5% (see chart below) . The government spending maintained incomes in the private sector and allowed businesses and households to pay down debt .
- The government cumulatively borrowed about 460 trillion yen (92% of its GDP) from 1990-2005 to save a potential loss of GDP of about 2,000 trillion yen (assuming GDP would have gone back to its pre-bubble 1985 peak without government action). This happened without crowding out of the private sector, inflation or high interest rates as the private sector continued to deleverage until 2005.
I above analysis is compelling- Japan has managed to do quite well despite some serious headwinds-foremost among them being their declining working-age population and a lack of natural resources. They are an extremely egalitarian society, with a rich cultural history, and continue to enjoy comfortable living standards and a high life expectancy – perhaps something for all developed nations to aspire towards rather than decry!
Year in Review and Predictions for 2012 :
Have provided below charts (via Macromon) which illustrate 2011 performances for a range of major equity markets as well as some bonds, currencies and commodities. Following a simplistic (yet surprisingly accurate) method of predicting performance for the year ahead based on the "reversal of fortunes" principle, it would suggest out-performances by the following asset classes in 2012:
India, China, Japan, Brazil, Hong Kong, France, Germany and Commodities.
On gold:
In the words of the 85 year old market veteran and doyen of newsletter writers – Richard Russell:
"Below are the last day of the year quotes for gold.
2000-$273.60
2001-$279.00
2002-$348.20
2003-$416.10
2004-$438.40
2005-$518.90
2006-$638.00
2007-$838.00
2008-$889.00
2009-$1,096.50
2010-$1,421.40
2011 -$1,566.80
2001-$279.00
2002-$348.20
2003-$416.10
2004-$438.40
2005-$518.90
2006-$638.00
2007-$838.00
2008-$889.00
2009-$1,096.50
2010-$1,421.40
2011 -$1,566.80
"This year's close for gold marks the 11th year for a higher year-end gold closing. To my knowledge this is the longest bull market of any kind in history in which each year's close was above the previous year. This fabulous bull market will not end with a whisper and a fizzle. I continue to believe that the upside gold crescendo of this bull market lies ahead. We are watching market history.
Standard & Poor's Takes Various Rating Actions On 16 Eurozone Sovereign Governments |
| Publication date: 14-Jan-2012 05:36:27 HKT |
- In our view, the policy initiatives taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone.
- We are lowering our long-term ratings on nine eurozone sovereigns and affirming the ratings on seven.
- The outlooks on our ratings on all but two of the 16 eurozone sovereigns are negative. The ratings on all 16 sovereigns have been removed from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 5, 2011 (except for Cyprus, which was first placed on CreditWatch on Aug. 12, 2011).
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 13, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today announced its rating actions on 16 members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) following completion of its review. We have lowered the long-term ratings on Cyprus, Italy, Portugal, and Spain by two notches; lowered the long-term ratings on Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia, by one notch; and affirmed the long-term ratings on Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. All ratings have been removed from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Dec. 5, 2011 (except for Cyprus, which was first placed on CreditWatch on Aug. 12, 2011). . See list below for full details on the affected ratings. The outlooks on the long-term ratings on Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain are negative, indicating that we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that the rating will be lowered in 2012 or 2013. The outlook horizon for issuers with investment-grade ratings is up to two years, and for issuers with speculative-grade ratings up to one year. The outlooks on the long-term ratings on Germany and Slovakia are stable. We assigned recovery ratings of '4' to both Cyprus and Portugal, in accordance with our practice to assign recovery ratings to issuers rated in the speculative-grade category, indicating an expected recovery of 30%-50% should a default occur in the future. Today's rating actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone. In our view, these stresses include: (1) tightening credit conditions, (2) an increase in risk premiums for a widening group of eurozone issuers, (3) a simultaneous attempt to delever by governments and households, (4) weakening economic growth prospects, and (5) an open and prolonged dispute among European policymakers over the proper approach to address challenges. The outcomes from the EU summit on Dec. 9, 2011, and subsequent statements from policymakers, lead us to believe that the agreement reached has not produced a breakthrough of sufficient size and scope to fully address the eurozone's financial problems. In our opinion, the political agreement does not supply sufficient additional resources or operational flexibility to bolster European rescue operations, or extend enough support for those eurozone sovereigns subjected to heightened market pressures. We also believe that the agreement is predicated on only a partial recognition of the source of the crisis: that the current financial turmoil stems primarily from fiscal profligacy at the periphery of the eurozone. In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the eurozone's core and the so-called "periphery". As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers' rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues. Accordingly, in line with our published sovereign criteria, we have adjusted downward our political scores (one of the five key factors in our criteria) for those eurozone sovereigns we had previously scored in our two highest categories. This reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of European policymaking and political institutions have not been as strong as we believe are called for by the severity of a broadening and deepening financial crisis in the eurozone. In our view, it is increasingly likely that refinancing costs for certain countries may remain elevated, that credit availability and economic growth may further decelerate, and that pressure on financing conditions may persist. Accordingly, for those sovereigns we consider most at risk of an economic downturn and deteriorating funding conditions, for example due to their large cross-border financing needs, we have adjusted our external score downward. On the other hand, we believe that eurozone monetary authorities have been instrumental in averting a collapse of market confidence. We see that the European Central Bank has successfully eased collateral requirements, allowing an ever expanding pool of assets to be used as collateral for its funding operations, and has lowered the fixed rate to 1% on its main refinancing operation, an all-time low. Most importantly in our view, it has engaged in unprecedented repurchase operations for financial institutions, greatly relieving the near-term funding pressures for banks. Accordingly we did not adjust the initial monetary score on any of the 16 sovereigns under review. Moreover, we affirmed the ratings on the seven eurozone sovereigns that we believe are likely to be more resilient in light of their relatively strong external positions and less leveraged public and private sectors. These credit strengths remain robust enough, in our opinion, to neutralise the potential ratings impact from the lowering of our political score. However, for those sovereigns with negative outlooks, we believe that downside risks persist and that a more adverse economic and financial environment could erode their relative strengths within the next year or two to a degree that in our view could warrant a further downward revision of their long-term ratings. We believe that the main downside risks that could affect eurozone sovereigns to various degrees are related to the possibility of further significant fiscal deterioration as a consequence of a more recessionary macroeconomic environment and/or vulnerabilities to further intensification and broadening of risk aversion among investors, jeopardizing funding access at sustainable rates. A more severe financial and economic downturn than we currently envisage (see "Sovereign Risk Indicators", published Dec. 28, 2011) could also lead to rising stress levels in the European banking system, potentially leading to additional fiscal costs for the sovereigns through various bank workout or recapitalization programs. Furthermore, we believe that there is a risk that reform fatigue could be mounting, especially in those countries that have experienced deep recessions and where growth prospects remain bleak, which could eventually lead us to the view that lower levels of predictability exist in policy orientation, and thus to a further downward adjustment of our political score. Finally, while we currently assess the monetary authorities' response to the eurozone's financial problems as broadly adequate, our view could change as the crisis and the response to it evolves. If we lowered our initial monetary score for all eurozone sovereigns as a result, this could have negative consequences for the ratings on a number of countries. In this context, we would note that the ratings on the eurozone sovereigns remain at comparatively high levels, with only three below investment grade (Portugal, Cyprus, and Greece). Historically, investment-grade-rated sovereigns have experienced very low default rates. From 1975 to 2010, the 15-year cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in investment grade was 1.02%, and 0.00% for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category or higher. During this period, 97.78% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' at the beginning of the year retained their rating at the end of the year. Following today's rating actions, Standard & Poor's will issue separate media releases concerning affected ratings on the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance companies, public finance, and structured finance sectors in due course. RELATED CRITERIA
- Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, June 30, 2011
- Criteria For Determining Transfer And Convertibility Assessments, May 18, 2009
- Introduction Of Sovereign Recovery Ratings, June 14, 2007
RELATED RESEARCH
- Standard & Poor's Puts Ratings On Eurozone Sovereigns On CreditWatch With Negative Implications, Dec. 5, 2011
- Trade Imbalances In The Eurozone Distort Growth For Both Creditors And Debtors, Says Report, Dec. 1, 2011
- Standard & Poor's RPM Measures The Eurozone's Great Rebalancing Act, Nov. 21, 2011
- Who Will Solve The Debt Crisis?, Nov. 10, 2011
- Ireland's Prospects Amidst The Eurozone Credit Crisis, Nov. 29, 2011
RATINGS LIST
To From
Austria (Republic of) AA+/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Belgium (Kingdom of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
AA/Negative/A-1+ AA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Cyprus (Republic of) BB+/Negative/B BBB/Watch Neg/A-3
Estonia (Republic of) AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+
Finland (Republic of) AAA/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
France (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
AA+/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Germany (Federal Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
AAA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Ireland (Republic of) BBB+/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2
Italy (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
BBB+/Negative/A-2 A/Watch Neg/A-1
Luxembourg (Grand Duchy of) AAA/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Malta (Republic of) A-/Negative/A-2 A/Watch Neg/A-1
Netherlands (The) (State of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
AAA/Negative/A-1+ AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+
Portugal (Republic of) BB/Negative/B BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3
Slovak Republic A/Stable/A-1 A+/Watch Neg/A-1
Slovenia (Republic of) A+/Negative/A-1 AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+
Spain (Kingdom of) A/Negative/A-1 AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+
N.B.--This does not include all ratings affected.
Today's worst kept secret just hit the wires, as S&P announces that it has officially downgraded France
FRANCE CUT TO AA+ FROM AAA BY S&P, OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
"we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating further in 2012 or 2013″
"we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating,"
One notch, but the negative outlook means a future downgrade is likely.
Full statement below:
France's Unsolicited Long-Term Ratings Lowered To 'AA+'; Outlook Negative
Overview
Standard & Poor's is lowering its unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France to 'AA+'. At the same time, we are affirming our unsolicited short-term sovereign credit rating on France at 'A-1+'.
The downgrade reflects our opinion of the impact of deepening political, financial, and monetary problems within the eurozone, with which France is closely integrated.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative.
Rating Action
On Jan. 13, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. At the same time, we affirmed the unsolicited short-term sovereign credit rating at 'A-1+'. We also removed the ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on Dec. 5, 2011. The outlook on the long-term rating is negative.
Our transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment for France, as for all European Economic and Monetary Union (eurozone) members, is 'AAA', reflecting Standard & Poor's view that the likelihood of the European Central Bank restricting nonsovereign access to foreign currency needed for debt service is extremely low. This reflects the full and open access to foreign currency that holders of euro currently enjoy and which we expect to remain the case in the foreseeable future.
Rationale
The downgrade reflects our opinion of the impact of deepening political, financial, and monetary problems within the eurozone.
The outcomes from the EU summit on Dec. 9, 2011, and subsequent statements from policymakers lead us to believe that the agreement reached has not produced a breakthrough of sufficient size and scope to fully address the eurozone's financial problems. In our opinion, the political agreement does not supply sufficient additional resources or operational flexibility to bolster European rescue operations, or extend enough support for those eurozone sovereigns subjected to heightened market pressures.
We also believe that the agreement is predicated on only a partial recognition of the source of the crisis: that the current financial turmoil stems primarily from fiscal profligacy at the periphery of the eurozone. In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the eurozone's core and the so-called "periphery." As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers' rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues.
Accordingly, in line with our published sovereign criteria, we have adjusted downward the political score we assign to France (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions," published on June 30, 2011). This is a reflection of our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of European policymaking and political institutions (with which France is closely integrated) have not been as strong as we believe are called for by the severity of what we see as a broadening and deepening financial crisis in the eurozone.
France's ratings continue to reflect our view of its wealthy, diversified, and resilient economy and its highly skilled and productive labor force. Partially offsetting these strengths, in our view, are France's relatively high general government debt, as well as its labor market rigidities. We note the government is addressing these issues through, respectively, its budgetary consolidation strategy and structural reforms.
Outlook
The outlook on the long-term rating on France is negative, indicating that we believe that there is at least a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating further in 2012 or 2013 if:
Its public finances deviated from the planned budgetary consolidation path. Budgetary measures announced by the French government to date may be insufficient to meet deficit targets in 2012 and 2013, should France's underlying economic growth in these years fall below the government's current forecast of 1% and 2%, respectively. If France's general government deficit were to remain close to current levels, leading to a gradual increase in the net general government debt to surpass 100% of GDP (from just above 80% currently), or if economic growth were to remain weak for an extended period, it could lead to a one-notch downgrade.
Heightened financing and economic risks in the eurozone were to lead to a significant increase in contingent liabilities, or to a material worsening of external financing conditions.
Conversely, the ratings could stabilize at current levels if the authorities are successful in further reducing the general government deficit in order to stabilize the public debt ratio in the next two to three years and in implementing reforms to support economic growth.
MS on Oil & Gas
We downgrade our Industry View to Cautious due to
1) negative outlook for Refining and Petrochemical margins, and
2) higher subsidy burden due to a weaker rupee.
-- Our top pick is Cairn India for its production growth and free cash flow
-- Avoid OMCs, Reliance and Essar due to their refining exposure
MS cuts RIL's rating to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'; Cuts price target to Rs 650 from Rs 921
MS downgrades HPCL to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'; Cuts price target to Rs 205 from Rs 407
MS downgrades Essar to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'; Cuts price target to Rs 50 from Rs 97
MS downgrades BPCL to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'; Cuts price target to Rs 418 from Rs 683
MS cuts OIL price target to Rs 1,286 from Rs 1,600; Keeps 'overweight' rating
MS raises Cairn India's price target to Rs 413 from Rs 359; Keeps 'overweight' rating
MS_Oil & Gas_Jan 13.pdf
