Promoters of as many as 125 big and small companies have pledged over 75% of their holdings, according to the latest data available with the exchanges.
As these are offered as either collateral for some financial accommodation or to raise funds in their personal capacity, any further fall in the value of shares thus pledged, makes them vulnerable.
In the case of 15 companies, including Tata Coffee , Gujarat Pipavav Port , Kingfisher Airlines and Tuticorin Alkalies , promoters have pledged their entire stake in the company with financiers to raise funds.
Other prominent companies in which promoters have pledged significant stake with financiers include Gujarat NRE Coke (along with DVR shares), Essar Oil , Dunlop India , Bilcare , Sakthi Sugars , United Spirits , Orchid Chemicals , Uflex and Kouton Retails . Mr Arun Kejriwal of KRIS Securities said that the degree of vulnerability depends on the institutions with which promoters have pledged their shares.
He said if the shares are pledged with banks, then they would not face much pressure, as banks generally offer time to promoters to put up additional collateral.
In that case, the promoters could bring in other assets as collateral.
However, if the shares are pledged with non-banking finance companies or other entities, promoters may not enjoy much latitude.
There is a high possibility that the shares may be put on the block if the promoters either fail to put up additional securities or redeem a portion of their loan immediately.
The lenders might simply offload the stake in the market should the share prices fall below their threshold limits.
Going forward, retail investors have to take this as a critical input for their investment decision.
They have to be extremely careful about small companies because the sustainability power of large companies for margin calls is relatively better,said Mr Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Head of Research and Chief Strategist with SMC Global Securities.
A lot of the promoter funding is done by NBFCs, which have an appetite for high risk funding at high interest rates. Their own cost of funding has gone up after the rate hikes, and promoters' ability to pay back borrowed money is under question, resulting in a sell-off in many cases,� said a research report from Swastika Investmart.
Orchid Chemicals case
It may be recalled that in 2008, Mr Raghavendra Rao, Managing Director of Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals, saw shares pledged by him with Indiabulls Financial Services and Religare Enterprises flooding the market when the company's share price fell and he could not put up additional collateral security in time.
The promoters had borrowed to increase their stake in the company.
Great Offshore case
While the takeover threat was averted in the case of Orchid Chemicals, Great Offshore, a company once owned by Mr Vijay Sheth and his associates, saw a management restructuring resulting in his eventually losing control after he failed to redeem the pledge.
The promoters' stake ended up in the hands of Bharati Shipyard, which acquired management control over the operations of the company.
In all, about 900 companies' promoters have pledged their stake, but half of them have pledged less than 25% of their shares.
Policy-makers in New Delhi and Mumbai are not convinced, but global banks and hedge funds with significant interests in India are deeply concerned that the European sovereign debt crises will adversely impact the country's financial system. They have sounded out mandarins in North Block and Mint Street that European banks' exposure to India could be as high as 14-15 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). In absolute terms, this is approximately $150 billion.
A global banker, who did not wish to be quoted, told that the de-leveraging risks of European banks for India were being underestimated by the Finance Ministry and the Planning Commission. European banks have actively participated in funding India Inc through external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and trade credit during the last two years.
"Of the approximately $120 billion exposure, trade credit alone accounts for about $36 billion," the banker said. Post-2008 global financial crisis, when credit turned cheap across the world on the back of coordinated stimulus by governments, India Inc borrowed almost $46 billion from European banks alone in just two years.
When contacted, senior government officials said the situation was not as scary as was being feared by some. "Over the next 12 months, it is true payments to the tune of $120 billion are due. Take the worst case scenario that there will be no foreign inflows over the next 12 months. So, our forex reserves will dip from $300 billion to $180 billion. Even if we assume that we need $120 billion to cover a year's import, we have 50 per cent more reserves," said a senior Planning Commission official.
"Most of the credit is rolled over or extended by European banks. But they are not doing it anymore," said another banker, who recently had an interaction with senior officials in the Finance Ministry, the Planning Commission and the Reserve Bank of India. This has forced Indian corporates to borrow at higher costs from domestic banks. "Many Indian companies are moving onshore. This trend is likely to accelerate in the coming months," the banker said.
According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), European banks' claims against India stood at $159 billion at the end of June 2011. This is almost 55 per cent of the total international claims of $289 billion on India by banks of all foreign countries reporting to BIS.
"What happens if the crisis worsens and European banks require capital for themselves. The first casualty will be emerging economies such as India. They will stop extending trade credit, start selling participatory notes, syndicated loans and corporate bonds," the hedge fund manager, who manages $2 billion in equity investments, pointed out.
Indian banks will be required to take such assets on their books. Financial market pundits say some part of the domestic credit growth during the year is a result of offshore (foreign) credit being converted into onshore (domestic) credit. In other words, Indian banks have already started buying some of the assets sold by European banks, resulting in a higher credit growth.
But, another government official said, this assumes that the economy will move to a high-growth trajectory immediately, resulting in high demand for credit. "The impact of monetary tightening on demand will persist for a while. So, we do not expect any rush for credit. The credit growth is expected to remain muted over at least the next six months," the official said. "Only if the domestic banking sector is expected to meet the entire demand for credit, we may face a liquidity pressure. But remember, even in 2008, we managed the crisis through just enhanced liquidity adjustment facilities (LAF)," the official added.
"Policy-makers in India do have a sense that things can turn out to be bad," said a foreign analyst. "But can it get ugly?" One of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of India resisted cutting the cash reserve ratio (CRR) despite demands from various quarters in the recent monetary policy review was its sense of a build-up of liquidity pressures in the coming months. "RBI is the only institution that is alive to the adverse impact that the Euro zone crisis can have on India," the analyst said, based on interactions with officials in the central bank.
Such demands on the Indian banking sector already stressed due to a phenomenal exposure to infrastructure sector will call for additional capital infusion. But, given the government's fiscal position, setting aside more funds for banks is easier said than done. "The government is yet to take a call on subscribing to the State Bank of India's rights issue primarily because of fiscal considerations," said an Indian banker.
Top software exporter Tata Consultancy Services surpassed Reliance Industries on the last trading day of the year to become the country's most-valuable firm, capping a gloomy year for shareholders of the energy major controlled by India's richest man Mukesh Ambani.
Reliance, for long the darling of Indian investors, was briefly knocked off its four-year long perch as the country's most-valuable company in August -- first by state-run Coal India and then by Oil & Natural Gas Corp -- before regaining it.
TCS, part of the salt-to-software Tata conglomerate, is the first private-sector company to overtake Reliance in market value.
Shares in Reliance, which owns the world's largest refinery complex, fell 2.7% on Friday to their lowest level since March 2009. The stock lost 34.5% in 2011, underperforming a 24.6% fall in the benchmark index.
At Friday's close, Reliance was valued at about USD 42.7 billion, while TCS commanded a market value of USD 42.8 billion, despite its shares closing 0.4% lower.
"This leadership game is becoming like a musical chair," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global securities in New Delhi.
"If the underperformance in Reliance shares continues, it will become difficult for them to regain the top position again."
Reliance's growth outlook has been marred by falling gas output from its huge KG D6 gas fields, off India's east coast, which has drawn criticism from the country's upstream regulator, investors and analysts.
A USD 7.2 billion deal to sell a 30% stake in 23 oil and gas blocks to BP Plc struck earlier this year failed to impress shareholders, who are also looking for more clarity on the company's move to enter new areas such as retail and telecoms.
"KG D6 has sort of become a drag," Thunuguntla said. "And also, they have somehow got into a long-gestation trap in all their businesses -- be it oil and gas, retail or telecom."
"They are sitting on a huge cash pile and need to deploy it at the right place. Holding cash is again not good," he said.
TCS, which competes with companies such as Infosys Ltd and Wipro in providing software services to western clients, saw its share price jump nearly 12% in the December quarter, compared with a 6% drop in the benchmark index. TCS has shed 0.4% on the year.
Global technology spending outlook remains uncertain with no easy fix seen to the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and concerns about the US economy, but a sharp fall in the Indian rupee helps these exporters who get most of their revenues in foreign currencies while bulk of their spends are in rupee.
Sell year-end rally; tough markets over next six months; expect index to correct to 14,500
India has been the worst-performing market this year, falling a third in US$ terms. Peaking inflation and a consequent pause in RBI rates are a positive which will likely help the traditional December rally. However, we continue to expect a tough market over the next six months and expect a correction of the Sensex to 14,500 as growth concerns take center-stage:
1. GDP growth to slow; downgrades likely:
We expect FY13 GDP to slow to 6.8% and consensus to cut GDP forecasts over the next few months. GDP growth in the next few quarters is likely to come even lower at around 6.5%. A slower GDP will be led by: (a) a slowing global economy, (b) impact of high rates and (c) slowing investment spend.
2. Earnings downgrades to continue:
We continue to expect earnings downgrades, led by slowing sales and sustained margin pressure from rising labor and interest costs. We expect the bottom-up Sensex EPS of Rs1,275 to be downgraded to Rs1,200 (growth of under 10% vs. expectations of nearly 15%).
3. Valuations will see slight de-rating:
Based on analysts' forecasts, markets at 13x one-year forward PE are at a slight discount to long-term averages. Slow down in GDP and earnings growth as well as falling RoEs will likely lead markets to trade lower.Secondly, on a relative basis, India trades at a 27% PE premium to GEM markets, higher than a 10-year average of 17%.
Markets stop panicking when policymakers start panicking; year-end index 19,000
The good news is that we could get some positive returns in 2012 if policymakers take steps to reverse the economic slowdown. like a) aggressive rate cuts by RBI: we expect rate cuts from April 2012 (though slow given stick inflation); markets typically rally 3-6 months after the rate-cut cycle starts, and (b) policy reform by the Government.
Sector overweights: Pharma, autos and banks
We play a mix of defensives (through pharma rather than staples) and consumer-related rate sensitives through autos and private sector banks.
Global - Economy and Market
Initial unemployment claims hit lowest rate since April 2008, Consumer confidence perks up, house prices sag
First-time jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week by 4,000, to 364,000, the Labor Department said. That's the smallest total since April 2008. Improving labor market conditions lifted U.S. consumer confidence to an eight month high in December, but persistently weak house prices remain an obstacle to faster economic growth.
Optimism about U.S. economy keeps oil futures elevated
Oil futures are priced near a two-week high as traders speculate that the U.S. recovery is gaining strength and growth will stimulate demand for energy. In electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for February delivery was worth $99.53 a barrel Tuesday. Futures gained 6.6% last week
Brazil replaces U.K. as world's sixth-largest economy
Brazil's economy is the world's sixth biggest, replacing Britain, the Center for Economics and Business Research reported. The research organization confirmed a forecast by the International Monetary Fund.
Spain will suffer another recession, official says
Spain's economy is contracting this quarter and will shrink further in 2012, sending the nation into recession, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said. The nation's gross domestic product, fourth largest in the eurozone, will fall 0.2% to 0.3% this quarter and about the same in the first quarter, he said.
Feisty Italy union chief stands between Monti and reform
ROME - A formidable battle is taking shape over the future of Italy's labour market between Prime Minister Mario Monti, a detached, professorial economist and Susana Camusso, the pugnacious, chain-smoking leader of the country's largest trade union.
China and Japan move to reduce dependence on U.S. dollar
China and Japan signed a deal to allow direct trading of their currencies. The arrangement is part of the nations' move to scale back exposure to the U.S. dollar. China and Japan are the world's second- and third-largest economies, respectively.
India - Economy and Market
Record foodgrains production in 2011 facilitates Food Security Bill
The agriculture sector performed exceedingly well in 2011, with record foodgrains production of over 240 million tonnes.
Nov infrastructure output up 6.8 pct y/y
NEW DELHI - India's infrastructure sector output grew 6.8 percent in November from a year earlier, sharply higher than the annual growth of 3.7 percent in November last year, government data showed on Monday.
Short on revenue, government may go for larger market borrowings
The government is finding it difficult to meet direct tax target due to industrial slowdown and may go in for larger market borrowings.
Import of sensitive items up 40 per cent in April-September
Led by edible oils, import of sensitive items shot up 39.9 per cent to Rs 48,274 crore in the April-September period of this fiscal.
Pulses imports result in Rs 1,201 crore loss to state firms: CAG
State-owned agencies - MMTC, STC, NAFED and PEC has suffered losses of Rs 1,201 crore on import and sale of pulses between 2006 and 2011.
European financial woes likely to cut apparel exports by 15%
Orders from Italy and Spain have almost become nil and could reduce India's total apparel exports by 15%
National Highways Authority of India set to roll out ETC system from next year
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) plans to roll out the Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) system pan-India from next year.
NHAI to garner Rs 10,000 crore from market for projects ,NHAI to award Rs 15,000 crore order in FY13
NHAI plans to award construction orders worth up to 15,000 crore in the next fiscal, deviating from its strategy of awarding projects through PPP route.
The National Highways Authority of India will raise Rs 10k cr through public issue of "Tax Free Secured Reedeemable Non-Convertible Bonds"
India's roads sector seems headed for consolidation
India's roads sector seems headed for consolidation, with smaller and more aggressive bidders piling up orders that have run into viability issues.
Technology News –
Tata Communications bets big on cloud technology
Tata Communications is betting big on cloud technology to help clients increase productivity and cut costs on the back of solutions.
BT Group to exit from Tech Mahindra, directors resign
BT Group owns a little over 23% equity in Tech Mahindra and contributes 37% to company's revenue.
IT majors to see lower Q3 revenue growth, says brokerage
Brokerage firm Edelweiss Securities has revised it Q3 revenue growth forecast for the top four IT companies downwards to 2-3% from an expectation of 5% at the beginning of the quarter.
Snapdeal, the e-commerce site has broken growth records in 2011; What next?
There are key issues plaguing e-commerce & Snapdeal is no exception. How will it differentiate services from competitors?
E-governance project helps check grassroot pension fraud in Bangalore
A bank correspondent will now be sent to each pensioner's house with a card-reader where the pensioner would swipe his smart card.
Social media site Facebook tops search charts
Popular social media site Facebook was the most searched for word on the internet during 2011 for the third year running, according to a new research.
Online shopping jumps 16.4 pct on Christmas Day
A growing number of shoppers in the U.S. apparently need only the briefest of breaks before diving back in, especially if they can log in to shop.
Samsung eyes 15 per cent rise in handset sales next year: Report
South Korea's Samsung Electronics aims to raise its global handset sales by 15 percent next year by boosting its smartphone sales.
Samsung Electronics Co. buys out Sony's stake in LCD joint venture
Samsung will pay 1.08 trillion won ($935 million) in cash for Sony's stake in S-LCD Corp., a venture formed in 2004, the Suwon.
Intel prepares to launch smartphones powered by its chips
After decades at the bleeding edge of PC technology, Intel is in race to design the brains of a new crop of tablets and smartphones.
2011 Year of tech, tweets, tablets and telecom
Most of the action happened in telecom, with 3G and other milestones. IT crossed a landmark, too. Here are five top tech trends of 2011.
First-time jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week by 4,000, to 364,000, the Labor Department said. That's the smallest total since April 2008. Improving labor market conditions lifted U.S. consumer confidence to an eight month high in December, but persistently weak house prices remain an obstacle to faster economic growth.
Optimism about U.S. economy keeps oil futures elevated
Oil futures are priced near a two-week high as traders speculate that the U.S. recovery is gaining strength and growth will stimulate demand for energy. In electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for February delivery was worth $99.53 a barrel Tuesday. Futures gained 6.6% last week
Brazil replaces U.K. as world's sixth-largest economy
Brazil's economy is the world's sixth biggest, replacing Britain, the Center for Economics and Business Research reported. The research organization confirmed a forecast by the International Monetary Fund.
Spain will suffer another recession, official says
Spain's economy is contracting this quarter and will shrink further in 2012, sending the nation into recession, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said. The nation's gross domestic product, fourth largest in the eurozone, will fall 0.2% to 0.3% this quarter and about the same in the first quarter, he said.
Feisty Italy union chief stands between Monti and reform
ROME - A formidable battle is taking shape over the future of Italy's labour market between Prime Minister Mario Monti, a detached, professorial economist and Susana Camusso, the pugnacious, chain-smoking leader of the country's largest trade union.
China and Japan move to reduce dependence on U.S. dollar
China and Japan signed a deal to allow direct trading of their currencies. The arrangement is part of the nations' move to scale back exposure to the U.S. dollar. China and Japan are the world's second- and third-largest economies, respectively.
India - Economy and Market
Record foodgrains production in 2011 facilitates Food Security Bill
The agriculture sector performed exceedingly well in 2011, with record foodgrains production of over 240 million tonnes.
Nov infrastructure output up 6.8 pct y/y
NEW DELHI - India's infrastructure sector output grew 6.8 percent in November from a year earlier, sharply higher than the annual growth of 3.7 percent in November last year, government data showed on Monday.
Short on revenue, government may go for larger market borrowings
The government is finding it difficult to meet direct tax target due to industrial slowdown and may go in for larger market borrowings.
Import of sensitive items up 40 per cent in April-September
Led by edible oils, import of sensitive items shot up 39.9 per cent to Rs 48,274 crore in the April-September period of this fiscal.
Pulses imports result in Rs 1,201 crore loss to state firms: CAG
State-owned agencies - MMTC, STC, NAFED and PEC has suffered losses of Rs 1,201 crore on import and sale of pulses between 2006 and 2011.
European financial woes likely to cut apparel exports by 15%
Orders from Italy and Spain have almost become nil and could reduce India's total apparel exports by 15%
National Highways Authority of India set to roll out ETC system from next year
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) plans to roll out the Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) system pan-India from next year.
NHAI to garner Rs 10,000 crore from market for projects ,NHAI to award Rs 15,000 crore order in FY13
NHAI plans to award construction orders worth up to 15,000 crore in the next fiscal, deviating from its strategy of awarding projects through PPP route.
The National Highways Authority of India will raise Rs 10k cr through public issue of "Tax Free Secured Reedeemable Non-Convertible Bonds"
India's roads sector seems headed for consolidation
India's roads sector seems headed for consolidation, with smaller and more aggressive bidders piling up orders that have run into viability issues.
Technology News –
Tata Communications bets big on cloud technology
Tata Communications is betting big on cloud technology to help clients increase productivity and cut costs on the back of solutions.
BT Group to exit from Tech Mahindra, directors resign
BT Group owns a little over 23% equity in Tech Mahindra and contributes 37% to company's revenue.
IT majors to see lower Q3 revenue growth, says brokerage
Brokerage firm Edelweiss Securities has revised it Q3 revenue growth forecast for the top four IT companies downwards to 2-3% from an expectation of 5% at the beginning of the quarter.
Snapdeal, the e-commerce site has broken growth records in 2011; What next?
There are key issues plaguing e-commerce & Snapdeal is no exception. How will it differentiate services from competitors?
E-governance project helps check grassroot pension fraud in Bangalore
A bank correspondent will now be sent to each pensioner's house with a card-reader where the pensioner would swipe his smart card.
Social media site Facebook tops search charts
Popular social media site Facebook was the most searched for word on the internet during 2011 for the third year running, according to a new research.
Online shopping jumps 16.4 pct on Christmas Day
A growing number of shoppers in the U.S. apparently need only the briefest of breaks before diving back in, especially if they can log in to shop.
Samsung eyes 15 per cent rise in handset sales next year: Report
South Korea's Samsung Electronics aims to raise its global handset sales by 15 percent next year by boosting its smartphone sales.
Samsung Electronics Co. buys out Sony's stake in LCD joint venture
Samsung will pay 1.08 trillion won ($935 million) in cash for Sony's stake in S-LCD Corp., a venture formed in 2004, the Suwon.
Intel prepares to launch smartphones powered by its chips
After decades at the bleeding edge of PC technology, Intel is in race to design the brains of a new crop of tablets and smartphones.
2011 Year of tech, tweets, tablets and telecom
Most of the action happened in telecom, with 3G and other milestones. IT crossed a landmark, too. Here are five top tech trends of 2011.
India will allow individual foreign investors direct access to its stock market from Jan. 15, the government said on Sunday, the latest step to liberalise Asia's third-largest economy after a year of big losses on the benchmark Sensex index.
An Indian stock broker watches his computer screen at brokerage company at the Mumbai Stock Exchange.
Previously, foreign nationals were limited to investing in India's equity market through indirect routes such as mutual funds, or through institutional vehicles.
"The central government has decided to allow qualified foreign investors to directly invest in (the) Indian equity market in order to widen the class of investors, attract more foreign funds, and reduce market volatility," the government said in a statement.
Analysts said the decision to allow foreign nationals to invest in Indian equities was a positive move but it was unlikely to result in an increased flow of overseas funds in the near-term due to weak market conditions.
"At a time when the foreign institutions are reducing their exposure to India, it would not be prudent to expect foreign individuals to start investing in our markets," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, research head at brokerage SMC Global Securities.
"We can see some impact of this decision when the stock market conditions improve," he said.
In the past 20 years India has gradually opened its economy to foreign cash. The economy is now faltering after growing at an annual average of about 8 percent for several years.
The rupee shed 24 percent of its value against the dollar last year and the current account deficit is widening.
Many economists predict growth below seven percent for the fiscal year that ends on March 30.
Indian shares posted their first annual fall in three years in 2011 as a combination of near double-digit inflation, high interest rates, slowing domestic growth and policy inaction turned off investors already shaken by global headwinds.
Foreign fund inflows, a major driver of Indian stocks, dried up with net outflows of about $380 million as of Wednesday, a far cry from record inflows of more than $29 billion in 2010 that had powered a 17 percent rise in the benchmark index, following an 81 percent surge in 2009.
An Indian stock broker watches his computer screen at brokerage company at the Mumbai Stock Exchange.
Previously, foreign nationals were limited to investing in India's equity market through indirect routes such as mutual funds, or through institutional vehicles.
"The central government has decided to allow qualified foreign investors to directly invest in (the) Indian equity market in order to widen the class of investors, attract more foreign funds, and reduce market volatility," the government said in a statement.
Analysts said the decision to allow foreign nationals to invest in Indian equities was a positive move but it was unlikely to result in an increased flow of overseas funds in the near-term due to weak market conditions.
"At a time when the foreign institutions are reducing their exposure to India, it would not be prudent to expect foreign individuals to start investing in our markets," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, research head at brokerage SMC Global Securities.
"We can see some impact of this decision when the stock market conditions improve," he said.
In the past 20 years India has gradually opened its economy to foreign cash. The economy is now faltering after growing at an annual average of about 8 percent for several years.
The rupee shed 24 percent of its value against the dollar last year and the current account deficit is widening.
Many economists predict growth below seven percent for the fiscal year that ends on March 30.
Indian shares posted their first annual fall in three years in 2011 as a combination of near double-digit inflation, high interest rates, slowing domestic growth and policy inaction turned off investors already shaken by global headwinds.
Foreign fund inflows, a major driver of Indian stocks, dried up with net outflows of about $380 million as of Wednesday, a far cry from record inflows of more than $29 billion in 2010 that had powered a 17 percent rise in the benchmark index, following an 81 percent surge in 2009.
Almost $6.3 trillion was erased from global stock markets this year as the euro zone financial crisis reverberated across the world in the latter half of 2011, calling into question the future of the world’s largest currency bloc.
Global stock market capitalization dropped 12.1 percent to $45.7 trillion according to Bloomberg data, while the euro ended the year as the worst performing major currency after finally starting to succumb to the continent’s financial and economic woes in December.
The euro had proved resilient for much of the year – burning hedge funds that bet on a steeper decline – but on Friday touched a 10-year low against the Japanese yen, and is near lows against the dollar last touched a year ago.
“Investors were more optimistic at the start of the year, but as the year progressed they were forced to come to grips with the debt levels in the western world,” said Navtej Nandra, the international head of Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm.
The S&P 500 is flat this year while the FTSE 100 has only dropped 5.5 percent. But the Eurofirst 300 gauge of blue-chip European companies has lost 11 percent, led by the French and Italian exchanges. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has shed a fifth of its value despite strong growth in China and other emerging markets.
Asian equity markets were hit particularly hard with Japan’s Nikkei index losing 17.3 percent this year, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index 20 percent and the Shanghai Composite 22 percent.
Assets considered to be relative havens amid the turmoil have fared better. UK government yields hit a record low on Friday and gilts were the best performing major government bonds in 2011 – notching up 17 percent returns, compared with US Treasuries’ 9.8 percent returns and 10 percent for German Bunds.
Despite efforts by policymakers to shore up the euro zone, analysts and bankers expect next year to start on a glum note, as Europe continues to grapple with its debt crisis.
One of the biggest immediate tests will be the hundreds of billions of euros worth of government and bank debt that comes due in the first three months of the year.
Countries on Europe’s periphery, on the other hand, face funding costs that remain at near record highs, despite a series of summits that have unveiled various measures to restore investor confidence in the euro zone.
There is more than 457 billion euros of euro zone government debt due to be repaid in the first quarter of 2012, according to calculations by Citigroup. Italy has to repay almost 113 billion euros in the first three months of next year – at a time when its funding costs remain elevated.
“Markets would love to think that this will be solved swiftly, but dealing with all these problems will take time,” said Philip Poole of HSBC Asset Management. “Bond yields will remain high until it’s clear how deep the euro zone recession will be and austerity packages are more fully implemented.”
The European Central Bank lent 489 billion euros to more than 500 banks earlier this month to ease concerns over bank funding, but has so far fought pressures to more actively buy euro zone government bonds directly.
While the US economy is showing signs of recovery and most emerging market countries are still growing at a healthy clip, some investors fear that China’s economy could be facing a “hard landing” next year, posing yet another danger to the fragile global economy.
