The real estate market in India is an ideal example of the subversion of demand-supply economics.
Everyone knows the real demand for both residential and commercial real estate is currently low. Inventories are piling up with builders and not even half of new launches are being sold in major cities. But prices still remain stubbornly high.
According to the makaan.com property index, prices have nationally dropped by around 1 percent last month, with cities like Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Hyderabad seeing bigger falls.
But one needs to follow the trend for a longer period to figure out if there is going to be any meaningful price correction where demand materialises. In all probability, it won’t happen.
On the one hand, consumers are not ready to buy at the given price and if prices fall, investors will likely default on their payments.
Samantak Das, research head at property firm Knight Frank, tells us why. “The basic reason is this: the real estate market is driven mainly by investors and not end-users or consumers.”
Investors comprise of 50-52 percent of total absorption. So when a builder is building 100 flats, he could sell 50 flats at one go to an investor at, say, Rs 5,000 per sq ft. Now even if his other flats are not getting a good response he cannot afford to bring prices below Rs 5,000, for it would mean negative returns for the investor, on whom his maximum sales depend.
And these investors are not generally you and me buying a second flat for investment, but non-resident Indians or even politicians channelising their black money into the sector. “Their lobby is so strong that negative returns on their investments by pulling down prices simply cannot be done,” says Pankaj Kapoor, managing director of property research firm Liases Foras.
Says Kapoor: “Indian realty is in a Catch-22 situation where, on the one hand, consumers are not ready to buy at the given price. And if prices fall, investors will likely default on their payments.”
So why have the prices risen so much in the first place? The answer mostly lies in foreign capital entering Indian markets. Foreigners are not directly allowed to buy land, but the foreign money entering the housing sector is used for nothing else but buying land.
Construction costs constitute just 10-20 percent of a property’s price, with land accounting for the major balance — depending on where the property is located. Now, in residential buildings, customers themselves pay in phases, funding their own construction, which means the initial investment by the builder or private equity fund goes into buying the land. Between the financial year 2008 and till September this around, more than Rs 43,000 crore of foreign investment has flown into the housing sector.
Such capital flows have pushed prices up, with the weighted average price of a flat in Mumbai now being more than Rs 1 crore. Liases Foras estimates that even if interest rates come down to 9 percent from the 14-15 percent at present, the realty market needs to undergo a 33 percent price correction to go back to 2009 levels.
When a developer calculates returns on a flat, he has a certain velocity of sales in mind, which means he estimates the flats will be sold in a given timeframe. When the private equity investor is roped in, their margins increase the prices. When prices are held high, the sales velocity is bound to go down. The return on equity for the private equity investor falls and the consumer is hurt because of high prices.
In fact, private equity funds worth $3 bn-$5 bn are expected to exit real estate investments in 2012, Jones Lang LaSalle says. But the returns could be really low, hovering around even 2-3 percent, says Kapoor. So if both consumers and funds are losing, who is pocketing the gains is a question that needs to be answered.
The second question: if so much money has been transferred to the sector, what is the asset creation? Liases Foras estimates suggest that incremental construction floor space has gone down over the last two years in all major cities except Pune. Kapoor explains: “This tells us that land has almost been treated as a derivative that is traded with. It changes hand from owner to builder to PE funds and rises in value through the process. But nothing is created. With all capital being lost, realty has become the mother of all scams.”
Third, there have been controversial deals for floor space index (FSI) where a higher number of floors has been allowed for a single apartments. In such cases, the cost per flat must come down as the cost of the land remains the same. But this benefit has not been passed on to the customer, thus inflating the total value of the land.
In all this, common people have lost out. In the last 10 years, the percentage of Mumbai population living in slums has gone up from 55 percent to 70 percent. If one looks at it closely, almost the whole of the incremental population has gone to slums because of unaffordable housing. Are not foreign funds and direct investments supposed to do exactly the opposite?
What we have today is a system only for investors, who can get full tax exemptions on interest if they rent the property out. But a first time buyer has exemption only up to Rs 1,50,000 on interest payments. A new regulator for the realty sector is welcome — which is now being promised by the Real Estate Regulation and Development Bill, which must bring under its purview all the stake holders in the realty story.
If the regulator turns out to be a toothless tiger who is hand-in-glove with politician and builder lobbies, no good will come of it. India needs structural changes in its opaque realty sector to give its people what should be a basic right: a roof over one’s head.
A typical day for 45-year-old Star includes walking the dog, straightening her 8-year-old son's room and running a load of laundry.
It also includes stepping into her home office to work as a phone sex operator.
"I look at what I do as a business," Star, a single mom, told "Good Morning America." "It happens to deal with sex."
Star, who asked that we not give her last name or hometown, is one of thousands of moms in the U.S. who work as phone sex operators, and the numbers are growing at dramatic rates.
In the last 18 months alone, the number of mothers of young children pursuing sex work has jumped 400 percent, according to ratracerebellion.com, an organization that helps mothers find work-at-home jobs of all kinds, ranging from writing assignments to telemarketing.
Chris Durst runs Ratracerebellion.com. Durst has tracked the working habits of moms for more than a decade, and, while she says there's always a spike in the number of moms pursuing phone sex work after Labor Day, the last two years have shown unprecedented levels of interest.
The reason, she says, is the dismal state of the economy.
"Most sound a little embarrassed," she told "Good Morning America" of the moms who reach out to her, in search of phone sex work." "They say, 'I've tried everything. It's come to the point my family is on food stamps. We can't make the rent and are facing foreclosure. This is the fastest way for me to get my family back on my feet again.'"
Phone sex lines used to be run out of call centers. But today, the calls are typically taken from women, working out of their homes. Phone sex lines take pains to ensure that callers have no idea where the women answering the phones are based, or what their real names are.
Many of the mothers working as phone sex operators told "GMA" that, while they would like to work outside of the sex industry, those jobs are not currently available.
"I've applied to probably 20 to 30 jobs at like Walmart or Subway or a fast-food place," one mother, Aubrey, who asked that her last name not be used, said. "I just haven't gotten picked up in my area."
Aubrey, 22, and the mother of a 3-year-old son, says working as a phone sex operator is difficult, and often disturbing.
"There was a lot of having to get used to just, you know, the weirdoes out there," she said. "There is basically anything you could think of. There's married men with children. There's divorced men. Sometimes, every once in a while, there's a couple that'll call," she said. "More recently, there's actually been a few women calling."
Aubrey said she at times feels disgusted speaking intimately with strangers while her son sleeps down the hall.
"This is nothing I'd ever thought I'd be doing, ever," she said.
Working as a phone actress is as far as the 22-year-old says she is willing to go in adult entertainment.
"I'd never want to take off my clothes for anyone, or actually, you know, fulfill these fantasies for anyone," she said.
Aubrey's goal is to save enough money to finish her schooling and get a job as a medical transcriptionist.
"I'm definitely doing it for my child," she said. "We need the extra money to make sure he has everything he needs."
Financial Incentives Lure Stay-at-Home Moms
The women are typically paid $10 to $50 per hour, but many can make much more.
Lynn, a mother of three who also asked that her last name not be used, told "GMA" that she often considers getting out of the phone sex business, but says the finances of leaving don't make sense.
"I make more money per hour that way than I would at another job," she said. "I've made over $1,000 in the course of a day."
Lynn says that the work can often prove draining. She, like many phone sex operators, plays five different characters on various phone lines, to satisfy the interests of callers with very different interests. But she notes the flexibility of her hours, which she can set, and the ability to work from her living room are big incentives to stay with the phone sex job.
The financial benefits of her work have not been lost on her husband, Mike, who has come to accept what she does for a living.
"That she has the ability to bring in a little extra each month, and sometimes a lot extra each month, and be able to not have to worry about how and where we're going to get food or if the electric bills are going to be shut off, that's a big deal," he said. "That overrides any sort of other worries I might have."
Society Remains Divided
Durst's organization, Ratracerebellion.com, reports that some of the phone sex companies that employ women like Lynn, Aubrey and Star, take better care of their employees than do traditional, brick-and-mortar companies.
According to the site, some of the companies offer the women benefits. Many pay their employees by direct deposit every week or every other week. For women who do not have bank accounts, some of the phone sex companies pay directly to a gift card. Many additionally offer free training.
But while a growing number of moms may be pursuing phone sex work, society, as a whole, seems to still have reservations when it comes to mothers of minors working in the business.
"I don't know that I would want to promote that to my children," said one New York City mom.
"It's probably not the most appropriate," said another, when asked by "GMA" whether she thought it was acceptable for the mother of a young child to get paid to speak intimately with strangers.
Star says she knows many people want to judge her for what she does. To them, she insists, her line of work does not make her a bad mom.
"I get to spend time with my son," she said. "I have to go into the office when I work, but the office is just one room away from my living room. I take calls for half-an-hour and I'm back to my son again."
Star says her 8-year-old son has only a vague idea of what her occupation entails. So far, she's only told him that she gets paid to talk on the phone. But she says that she is prepared to come clean when he eventually asks more detailed questions.
For now, she, Lynn and Aubrey say they'll continue to attend to their children and work as phone sex operators, all in an effort to keep their children clothed, fed and with a roof over their heads.
"Your priority as a mother is to financially and emotionally be there for your children," mom-of-three, Lynn, told "GMA." "Phone sex helps me provide financial support for them."
Global - Economy and Market
WASHINGTON - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits hit a 3-1/2 year
low last week, bolstering views the economy was gaining momentum, even though third-quarter growth was revised down.
U.S. existing-home sales rose 12% last month, Realtors report
Sales of existing homes in the U.S. increased 12% in November from November 2010, the National Association of Realtors said. The inventory of unsold homes fell from a nine-month supply in July to a seven-month supply last month, the trade group said.
Fitch again warns U.S. debt burden threatens AAA rating
NEW YORK - Fitch Ratings on Wednesday warned again that the United States' rising debt burden was not consistent with maintaining the country's top AAA credit rating, but said there would likely be no decision on whether to cut the rating before 2013.
ECB's 3-year loan offer draws record borrowing from banks
More than 500 European banks took €489 billion from the European Central Bank through its first three-year loan offering. The amount is enough to refinance most of the debt lenders have maturing next year. "The perceived stigma attached to central bank borrowing has not prevented eurozone banks from making extensive use of the ECB's offer," said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group. "The take-up of loans is massive."
Gold posts biggest gain this month as U.S. dollar weakens
A falling U.S. dollar sent investors to gold, which on Tuesday gained the most this month. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery rose 1.3%, to $1,617.60 an ounce.
Spain's borrowing cost falls sharply in auction
Spain's $7.3 billion debt auction ended with a huge decline in the nation's borrowing cost. Three-month bills priced at 1.74%, compared with 5.11% in a sale of comparable debt in November. The average yield on six-month debt fell from 5.227% to 2.44%.
India - Economy and Market
Food inflation at 4-month low of 1.8%
Food inflation has fallen to low single digits, the government's official data finally catching up with the talk of glut and plunging prices.
Economy to grow by 7.5 pc next fiscal, says Fitch
Economy is likely to grow by 7.5% in 2012-13 and public finances of various state governments are likely to see consolidation during the next fiscal.
New companies bill tightens regulations regarding subsidiaries
The new cos bill has tightened the provision relating to the way subsidiary cos are defined, ensuring that larger number of firms are brought under reporting ambit.
With higher wages, workers slip out of social security net
NEW DELHI: A new malaise has begun to infect India's labour market. The weakest sections of the workforce now earn more money with state governments hiking minimum wages, but they are no longer eligible for mandatory social security benefits like provident fund, pension and life insurance.
Indian loans caught in Euro squeeze
Nearly $160 billion worth of Indian borrowings from Europe faces an uncertain future as the continent's banks embark on panic deleveraging.
Moody's upgrades long-term Re bonds to investment level
Global rating agency Moody's upgraded government's long-term rupee bonds rating to investment grade (Baa3)from speculative grade (Ba1) .
US PE fund GCA plans to invest $200 mn in India
MUMBAI: San Francisco-based private equity fund Gerken Capital Associates is looking to foray into the Indian markets with an initial corpus of $200 million. The company, which manages assets worth $1 billion, has appointed Alok Gupta, former chief of Axis Private Equity, as managing director of its India operations. GCA, which manages funds for institutional and high net-worth clients, will enter India with its emerging markets private equity fund of funds
Investors in renewable energy sector planning to turn part-time farmers
US-based Kiran Energy, SGFT and Gurgaon-based Moser Baer are some of the project developers inclined towards agriculture.
Over 7 lakh tonnes of foodgrain damaged in decade: RTI info
As much as 7.42 lakh tonnes of foodgrain, worth Rs 330.71 crore, was damaged in the past 10 years in the country due to various reasons.
RBI eases borrowing norms to ease liquidity crunch
MUMBAI: In order to ease the liquidity situation, the Reserve Bank of India today allowed banks to borrow additional amount from it under the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), a new lending window which was opened by the central bank in the current fiscal.
Technology News –
Indian start-ups: Light robots for physically-challenged
Start-up makes exoskeletans, or light robots, which can help the physically-challenged walk again.
New iPhone 4S? No thanks, say cash-conscious Europeans
'In UK, the US and Aus, Apple's new iPhone continues to fly off the shelf in the run-up to Christmas. However, this trend is far from universal.'
HCL Infosystems hikes PC prices by 10-15 %
HCL has increased prices of desktops, laptops and servers by 10-15 per cent September onwards, as depreciating rupee has pushed up its imports bill.
Intel-powered smartphone, tablet to enter market in 2012
Smartphones and tablets running Intel's chips will enter the mobile market early next year, posing a challenge to the dominance of Apple's iPhone and iPad.
Yahoo considers trimming its 40% stake in Alibaba
Internet giant Yahoo is considering trimming its 40% stake in Alibaba Group to about 15%, two persons briefed on the matter said.
EBay buys German technology company BillSafe
EBay will combine it with its PayPal online payments service, in a move to strengthen its e-commerce capabilities in Northern Europe.
India monitoring US call centre bill: Nirupama Rao
Rao said, "We are currently making a detailed analysis of the impact of the bill on the BPO industry and are in touch with Nasscom and related Indian govt deptts."
TCS, Infosys, Wipro and others planning to reduce onsite work by up to 5%
BANGALORE: India's top outsourcing firms plan to reduce the amount of work performed onsite by their staff travelling on temporary visas in the US, as they battle increased immigration scrutiny and push harder to increase profitability by shipping more work offshore.
Oracle misfires in fiscal Q2 raising tech worries
Oracle stumbled in its latest quarter as the business software maker struggled to close deals, a signal of possible trouble ahead.
The countdown to the apocalypse is on.
We're one year away from Dec. 21, 2012, the date that the ancient Mayan Long Count calendar allegedly marked as the end of an era that would reset the date to zero and signal the end of humanity.
But will it?
There have been many end of times predictions over the years. Christian radio host Harold Camping faced widespread ridicule when his predictions that the world would end twice this year - on May 21, and then on Oct. 21 - failed to materialize.
But in the flurry of doomsday predictions - there have been similar dire warnings about the world coming to an end from various cultures, including Native Americans, the Chinese, Egyptians and even the Irish - the supposed Mayan prophecy seems to have held the most sway with believers.
The Mayan civilization, which reached its height from 300 A.D. to 900 A.D., had a talent for astronomy. Advanced mathematics and primitive astronomy flourished, creating what many have called the most accurate calendar in the world.
The Mayans predicted a final event that included a solar shift, a Venus transit and violent earthquakes.
Their Long Count calendar begins in 3,114 B.C., marking time in roughly 394-year periods known as Baktuns. Thirteen was a significant, sacred number for the Mayas, and they wrote that the 13th Baktun ends on Dec. 21, 2012.
The doomsday theories stem from a stone tablet discovered in the 1960s at the archaeological site of Tortuguero in the Gulf of Mexico state of Tabasco that describes the return of a Mayan god at the end of a 13th period.
"The Maya are viewed by many westerners as exotic folks that were supposed to have had some special, secret knowledge," said Mayan scholar Sven Gronemeyer. "What happens is that our expectations and fears get projected on the Maya calendar."
Gronemeyer, of La Trobe University in Australia, compares the supposed Mayan prophecies to the "Y2K" hype, when people feared all computer systems would crash when the new millennium began on Jan. 1, 2000.
For some reason, Gronemeyer says, people have ignored evidence that dates beyond 2012 were recorded.
The blogosphere exploded with more speculation when Mexico's archaeology institute acknowledged on Nov. 24 a second reference to Dec. 21, 2012, on a brick found at other ruins.
"Human beings seem to be attracted by apocalyptic ideas and always assume the worst," Gronemeyer said.
Believers have taken the end-of-the world fears to the Internet with hundreds of thousands of websites and blogs. Yet others are capitalizing on the heightened interest. Films depicting the end of the world - including the 2009 movie, "2012? - are contributing to the mounting hype as well as to misinformation, experts say.
In southern Mexico, the heart of Maya territory, a yearlong celebration is planned.
Mexico's tourism agency expects to draw 52 million visitors by next year only to the regions of Chiapas, Yucatan, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Campeche. All of Mexico usually lures about 22 million foreigners in a year.
It's selling the date, the Winter Solstice in the coming year, as a time of renewal. Many archeologists argue that the 2012 reference on a 1,300-year-old stone tablet only marks the end of a cycle in the Mayan calendar.
"The world will not end. It is an era," said Yeanet Zaldo, a tourism spokeswoman for the Caribbean state of Quintana Roo, home to Cancun. "For us, it is a message of hope."
For those who are thinking about how to spend what could be their last year on earth, here's another message of hope: According to recent research, the mythological date of the "end of days" may be off by 50 to 100 years.
To convert the ancient Mayan calendar to the Gregorian (or modern) calendar, scholars use a numerical value (called the GMT). But Gerardo Aldana, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has said the data supporting the widely-adopted conversion factor may be invalid.
Aldana isn't the only detractor.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration - yes, that's NASA - has also weighed in on the issue.
The agency's scientists posted answers to the most popular questions about the end-of-times theory associated with the prophecy.
"Remember the Y2K scare? It came and went without much of a whimper because of adequate planning and analysis of the situation. Impressive movie special effects aside, Dec. 21, 2012, won't be the end of the world as we know," the 2009 web page post says.
The answers addressed questions about whether there were any known threats to the Earth and the truth about the calendar.
One of answers posted was to the question of the possible approach of Nibiru (or Planet X or Eris), a supposed wayward planet that is said could pose a threat to Earth. The answer was a definitive rejection of the idea.
"Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax," scientists wrote. "There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles."
Also Read
WILL 2012 REALLY BRING WORLD'S END? HERE ARE SOME OMENS TO SUPPORT IT
Also Read
WILL 2012 REALLY BRING WORLD'S END? HERE ARE SOME OMENS TO SUPPORT IT
ABC News' Susan Donaldson James and The Associated Press contributed to this story.
By now, you must have heard a lot of speculations on the supposed end of the world in 2012.
If you believe in it, we couldn't agree with you more. For those that don't, read the article. After all, we don't wanna end up saying 'we told you so' when you're inches away from your grave. Read on to find our reasons on why the world will end in 2012.
Global Warming - You didn't care then, its too late now
Our scientists had always told us about the ill-effects of global warming and Al Gore and Leo Di Caprio also sent us constant reminders of how we should try and use less water and use eco-friendly substances etc. We know you didn't try to save the earth from global warming and now is thus, the time to face the music.
Seriously, do you want more proof of the fact that that the world is slowly reaching its end? With over a hundred earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, terror attacks, hailstorms, floods, volcanic eruptions, landslides, etc we have a "titanic" reason to worry.Worldwide Mess - There's a reason for this MessTranslates to the major social, political and economic mess that's going on around the world. Some of the major events that have shook the world and also claimed lives are the Egyptian Revolution, the Libyan Civil War, the Occupy Wall Street Movement, London Riots and our home-grown Anna Hazare movement, apart from many other revolutionary movements in various other countries is indicative something larger that might be in store for us.
This is where it really starts getting eerie. The world is indeed going to end according to the predictions made by Mayan astrologers, Hindu mythology, the Bible and Nostradamus. All of them suggest the same fate for 2012 i.e. the beginning of the end of the world. Who cares if a few supposed 'intelligent thinkers' don't believe in it? The predictions of Nostradamus were accurate with respect to the London Fire of 1966, the II World War and 9/11.
2011 is already ending on a mournful note since it has seen the death of a lot of influential personalities. A number of our loved celebs left this world. Steve Jobs died, so did Tiger Pataudi and Amy Winehouse and Dev Anand and Jagjit Singh and Elizabeth Taylor and many others. Co-incidentally, this was also the year which saw the death of Osama bin Laden and Muanmar Gaddafi. What more do you want us to say? You're next?
A few years back leaks had been found in the earth's magnetic poles giving rise to speculations that it would lead to some massive upheaval on the planet. This year again, reports have flown about the shift in the earth poles which has again given us reason to believe in the theory. 2013 Doesn't Sound Right Those of you that don't think 13 is an unlucky number, we're not talking to you. Those that do only have to imagine the significance of the year 2012. Isn't it way too uncanny that the astrologers don't see the world stepping into 2013? The number 13 itself gives the inkling of a bad omen. So, it is only obvious that the world is coming to an end on 2012, right?
Manmohan Knows - He knew all Along
This explains his silence in the face of the socio-political unrest that has hit the country. Therefore, while everyone is screaming about the country being a banana republic and the all the politicians being corrupt, etc. etc. Manmohan is basking in the warmth of his secret knowledge. So, dear Mr. Prime Minister, now that we have revealed you secret, what do you have to say to that?
The last U.S. soldiers rolled out of Iraq across the border into neighboring Kuwait at daybreak Sunday, whooping, fist bumping and hugging each other in a burst of joy and relief. Their convoy's exit marked the end of a bitterly divisive war that raged for nearly nine years and left Iraq shattered, with troubling questions lingering over whether the Arab nation will remain a steadfast U.S. ally.
The mission cost nearly 4,500 American and well more than 100,000 Iraqi lives and $800 billion from the U.S. Treasury. The question of whether it was worth it all is yet unanswered.
The last convoy of MRAPs, heavily armored personnel carriers, made a largely uneventful journey out except for a few equipment malfunctions along the way. It was dark and little was visible through the MRAP windows as they cruised through the southern Iraqi desert.
When the convoy crossed the border into Kuwait around 7:45 a.m. local time, the atmosphere was subdued inside one of the vehicles, with no shouting or yelling. Along the road, a small group of Iraqi soldiers waved to the departing American troops.
"My heart goes out to the Iraqis," said Warrant Officer John Jewell, acknowledging the challenges ahead. "The innocent always pay the bill."
NATO Training officers stand during a ceremony marking the official closure of NATO training mission in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, Dec. 17, 2011.
Soldiers standing just inside the crossing on the Kuwaiti side of the border waved and snapped photos as the final trucks crossed over.
"I'm pretty excited," said Sgt. Ashley Vorhees. "I'm out of Iraq. It's all smooth sailing from here."
The war that began in a blaze of aerial bombardment meant to shock and awe the dictator Saddam Hussein and his loyalists ended quietly and with minimal fanfare.
U.S. officials acknowledged the cost in blood and dollars was high, but tried to paint a picture of victory — for both the troops and the Iraqi people now freed of a dictator and on a path to democracy. But gnawing questions remain: Will Iraqis be able to forge their new government amid the still stubborn sectarian clashes? And will Iraq be able to defend itself and remain independent in a region fraught with turmoil and still steeped in insurgent threats?
Many Iraqis, however, are nervous and uncertain about the future. Their relief at the end of Saddam, who was hanged on the last day of 2006, was tempered by a long and vicious war that was launched to find nonexistent weapons of mass destruction and nearly plunged the nation into full-scale sectarian civil war.
Some criticized the Americans for leaving behind a destroyed country with thousands of widows and orphans, a people deeply divided along sectarian lines and without rebuilding the devastated infrastructure.
Some Iraqis celebrated the exit of what they called American occupiers, neither invited nor welcome in a proud country.
Others said that while grateful for U.S. help ousting Saddam, the war went on too long. A majority of Americans would agree, according to opinion polls.
The low-key exit stood in sharp contrast to the high-octane start of the war, which began before dawn on March 20, 2003, with an airstrike in southern Baghdad where Saddam was believed to be hiding. U.S. and allied ground forces then stormed across the featureless Kuwaiti desert, accompanied by reporters, photographers and television crews embedded with the troops.
The final few thousand U.S. troops left in orderly caravans and tightly scheduled flights. They pulled out at night in hopes it would be more secure and left in time for at least some of the troops to join families at home for the Christmas holidays.
Before the final convoy departed Saturday evening from Camp Adder base near Nasiriyah in southern Iraq, the vehicles lined up in an open field to prepare. Soldiers went through last-minute equipment checks to make sure that radios, weapons and other gear were working.
Gen. Lloyd Austin, the commanding general for Iraq, walked through the rows of vehicles talking to soldiers over the low hum of the engines. He thanked them for their service and reminded them to stay vigilant on their final mission.
"I wanted to remind them that we have an important mission left in the country of Iraq. We want to stay focused and we want to make sure that we're doing the right things to protect ourselves," Austin said.
The final troops completed the massive logistical challenge of shuttering hundreds of bases and combat outposts, and methodically moving more than 50,000 U.S. troops and their equipment out of Iraq over the last year — while still conducting training, security assistance and counterterrorism battles.
As of Thursday, there were two U.S. bases and less than 4,000 U.S. troops in Iraq — a dramatic drop from the roughly 500 military installations and as many as 170,000 troops during the surge ordered by President George W. Bush in 2007, when violence and raging sectarianism gripped the country. All U.S. troops were slated to be out of Iraq by the end of the year, but officials are likely to meet that goal a bit before then.
"The biggest thing about going home is just that it's home," Staff Sgt. Daniel Gaumer, 37, from Ft. Hood, Texas said before the convoy left Camp Adder. "It's civilization as I know it, the Western world, not sand and dust and the occasional rain here and there. It's home."
Spc. Jesse Jones, a 23-year-old who volunteered to be on the last convoy, said: "It's just an honor to be able to serve your country and say that you helped close out the war in Iraq. ... Not a lot of people can say that they did huge things like that that will probably be in the history books."
The total U.S. departure is a bit earlier than initially planned, and military leaders worry that it is a bit premature for the still maturing Iraqi security forces, who face continuing struggles to develop the logistics, air operations, surveillance and intelligence-sharing capabilities they will need in what has long been a difficult region.
Despite President Barack Obama's earlier contention that all American troops would be home for Christmas, at least 4,000 forces will remain in Kuwait for some months. The troops will be able to help finalize the move out of Iraq, but could also be used as a quick reaction force if needed.
Obama stopped short of calling the U.S. effort in Iraq a victory in an interview taped Thursday with ABC News' Barbara Walters.
"I would describe our troops as having succeeded in the mission of giving to the Iraqis their country in a way that gives them a chance for a successful future," Obama said.
The U.S. plans to keep a robust diplomatic presence in Iraq, foster a deep and lasting relationship with the nation and maintain a strong military force in the region.
U.S. officials were unable to reach an agreement with the Iraqis on legal issues and troop immunity that would have allowed a small training and counterterrorism force to remain. U.S. defense officials said they expect there will be no movement on that issue until sometime next year.
Obama met in Washington with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki last week, vowing to remain committed to Iraq as the two countries struggle to define their new relationship.
Ending the war was an early goal of the Obama administration and will allow the president to fulfill a crucial campaign promise during a politically opportune time. The 2012 presidential race is roiling and Republicans are in a ferocious battle to determine who will face off against Obama in the election.
Capt. Mark Askew, a 28-year-old from Tampa, Florida who was among the last soldiers to leave, said the answer to the question of whether the Iraq war was worth the cost will depend on what type of country and government Iraq ends up with years from now, whether they are democratic, respect human rights and are considered an American ally.
"It depends on what Iraq does after we leave," he said, speaking before the final convoy departed. "I don't expect them to turn into South Korea or Japan overnight."
http://www.cfainstitute.org/ethics/Documents/global_market_sentiment_survey_report.pdf
New York , New York, United States, 15 December 2011
CFA members from across the globe remain pessimistic about the prospects for capital markets in the coming year, according to the CFA Institute 2012 Global Market Sentiment Survey. The survey measures the mood of more than 2,500 CFA charterholders and members on the outlook for world capital markets and the ongoing struggles associated with the global credit crisis. To review the executive summary and full survey results, visitwww.cfainstitute.org/gmss.
"Investors remain terribly concerned about the prospects for market performance and ethics in 2012, and it is difficult to envision a return to strong economic performance without prompt attention to restoring investor confidence," said Kurt Schacht, CFA, managing director for market policy at CFA Institute. "Industry participants must act to give investors reason to trust in the fairness of markets again, and regulators worldwide need to intensify efforts to deal effectively with ongoing systemic disruptions. With the exception of a few local markets, there is very little to cheer about in 2012."
Survey Indicates Somber Mood for World Markets
Significant highlights of the global survey include:
"Investors remain terribly concerned about the prospects for market performance and ethics in 2012, and it is difficult to envision a return to strong economic performance without prompt attention to restoring investor confidence," said Kurt Schacht, CFA, managing director for market policy at CFA Institute. "Industry participants must act to give investors reason to trust in the fairness of markets again, and regulators worldwide need to intensify efforts to deal effectively with ongoing systemic disruptions. With the exception of a few local markets, there is very little to cheer about in 2012."
Survey Indicates Somber Mood for World Markets
Significant highlights of the global survey include:
Equities expected to underperform other asset classes. Globally, 59 percent of respondents predict that asset classes other than equities will be top performers in 2012. However, U.S. respondents are more optimistic, with a majority predicting global equity markets to be top performers.
Sovereign debt crisis likely to continue. More than 75 percent of respondents see no improvement in the current sovereign crisis in 2012. This sentiment is widely shared across the globe.
Outlook for the global economy is poor. Only 34 percent of respondents expect the global economy to expand, while 29 percent think the global economy will actually contract.
Perception of integrity of capital markets remains dismal. More than 75 percent of respondents see no improvement in integrity in the markets in 2012. Of those surveyed, 22 percent think the integrity of global capital markets will be worse in the coming year (a nine-point increase from last year), while 22 percent feel it will be better (a 10-point decrease from last year).
Lack of progress in global capability to detect and mitigate systemic risks.Compared to just 23 percent in 2011, 38 percent of respondents see improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk as the most needed regulatory/industry action in 2012, vs. other options such as improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations.
One Bright Spot: the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) see reason for optimism about local economic prospects. Respondents in BRICs, and in Australia, overwhelmingly predict economic expansion in their home markets in 2012. The outlook is much different in Europe, where 85 percent or more respondents in key countries see no prospect of economic growth.
U.S. Attitudes Break With Global Consensus on Key Issues
Though much of the survey results were relatively consistent worldwide, U.S. respondents take a unique view on several issues, including the potential for equity returns. Key divergence in U.S. attitudes include:
Only 12 percent of U.S. respondents believe the U.S. market economy will contract, vs.23 percent who expect the global market economy to contract.
U.S. respondents are more optimistic about equity markets than the rest of the world. At56 percent, the United States is the only country in which a majority predicts global equity markets to be top performers.
When asked to select the most urgently needed regulatory or industry action, 28 percentof U.S. respondents chose improved regulation and oversight, vs. 38 percent of respondents worldwide. As the second most urgent priority, 32 percent of U.S. respondents ranked effective enforcement of existing laws and regulations, vs. 22 percent of respondents worldwide.
At 26 percent, U.S. respondents represent the greatest percentage of those who believe that companies with increased cash on their balance sheets should begin or increase dividend payments, rather than retain the cash for other business opportunities.
The CFA Institute 2012 Global Market Sentiment Survey was created to seek input from CFA Institute members and gather feedback on market sentiment, performance and market integrity issues in the coming year. The survey was conducted online from 2-11 November 2011.
About CFA Institute
CFA Institute is the global association for investment professionals. It administers the CFA and CIPM curriculum and exam programs worldwide; publishes research; conducts professional development programs; and sets voluntary, ethics-based professional and performance-reporting standards for the investment industry. CFA Institute has more than 100,000 members, who include the world's 96,000 CFA charterholders, in 133 countries and territories, as well as 135 affiliated professional societies in 58 countries and territories. More information may be found at www.cfainstitute.org.
The global economy has been one victim of the recent crisis of European sovereign debt, but Europe's banking sector and the investors who have financed it will be the next. A great deal of pushing and shoving has forced European authorities to accept that there is a problem in their banking sector. Some are working hard to understand the problems and others see themselves as immune, though they probably are not; but all have been tempted to let political factors influence decisions that need to be based on sound economic and regulatory footings.
You can Bank of It - European Banks need tons of Money - GMO.pdf
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Find below some of our observations-
Capital Goods & Infra Sector
· In the construction space, valuations are cheap but order inflows and competition is a concern. In addition , the average debtor days for construction companies is on the rise reaching 200 days.
· In the Infrastructure space Road, T&D are areas where order inflow is relatively strong.
· Problems continue to persist in order book, execution of projects and operating margins.
· Our view is that one should not look at capital goods space at these levels as more pain is expected there.
· Government paralysis has severely affected firms like IVRCL and Nagarjuna
· Companies such as Voltas and L&T having some exposure to middle east will help them to ward off the domestic blues.
Pharmaceutical Sector
· Moderation in expected growth rate (low double digit) is visible in the Pharma sector after the rapid growth seen over the last 2-3 years.
· Increasing competitive pressures and trade discounts are putting further pressure on margins of the companies.
· Specialties / chronic therapeutics will be less impacted in the domestic market. Select players could benefit from domestic market consolidation. Sales force in the domestic market has increased by manifold over the last few years.
· Inorganic growth would continue over the next 6-12 months in order to bridge the gap in expectations. However, acquisitions in emerging markets / US will be key growth avenue. Sun Pharma is the only company to have added value through acquisitions. Rest players have broadly not been very successful with acquisitions.
· US Pharma market is also seeing some growth moderation. Base effect, patent cliff impact just about to start on US business.
· Emerging markets contribution to generics markets is set grow at 15% for next 5-10 year . Their market share is expected to reach 27% from the current global share of 18%
2 of 2 File(s)
tfp20111215INFLATION .pdf
IIFL_DM_14122011.pdf
