European Union leaders agreed on new fiscal rules enshrining tougher budget discipline on Thursday, an EU official said, after the European Central Bank doused hopes of dramatic action on its part to arrest the euro area's debt crisis.
The 27 EU leaders, meeting in Brussels, agreed on automatic sanctions for euro zone deficit offenders unless three-quarters of states vote against the move, and approved a new fiscal rule on balanced budgets to be written into national constitutions.
"There is a deal between leaders on the new fiscal compact," an EU official told reporters after four hours of talks.
However, they were still debating how to strengthen their future permanent rescue fund and whether to give it a banking licence, and had not yet broached the vexed question of whether the new pact requires major changes to the EU treaty.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, the summit chairman, wants all 27 EU states to agree to the rule changes via a minor adjustment to a treaty protocol that could be implemented quickly without requiring full ratification. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded a fully fledged treaty change to give the measures extra weight.
"The Germans are obsessed with how we are going to do things, saying we have to change the treaty. They are totally obsessed. That's why it can get difficult," an EU diplomat said.
ECB President Mario Draghi earlier spooked financial markets by discouraging expectations that the bank would massively step up buying of government bonds if EU leaders agreed on moves towards closer fiscal union.
As soon as the draft summit agreement leaked, a senior German official rejected key measures including letting the future rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, operate as a bank, borrowing from the ECB, and a long-term goal of issuing common euro zone bonds.
Draghi said the bloc's existing bailout facility should remain the main tool to fight bond market contagion, despite its clear limits. It was illegal for the ECB or national central banks to lend money to the IMF to buy euro zone bonds, he said, appearing to veto one firefighting option under consideration.
The ECB did take unprecedented action to support Europe's cash-starved banks with three-year liquidity and cut interest rates back to a record low 1.0 percent to counter a forecast recession brought on by widespread austerity measures.
The euro and world shares briefly rallied on news of the draft summit conclusions, only to fall back on the German rejection. Investors are increasingly convinced only the ECB has the power to protect the euro zone, and were disappointed by Draghi's caution on bond-buying.
"One step forward, two steps back," said Alan Clarke, UK and euro zone economist at Scotia Capital. "The euro zone leaders might as well not bother. Pack their bags, go home, enjoy the weekend and do their Christmas shopping."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy dramatised the danger facing the 17-nation single currency area hours before their eighth crisis summit of the year in a speech to European conservative leaders in the French port city of Marseille.
"Never has the risk of Europe exploding been so big," he said. "If there is no deal on Friday there will be no second chance."
France and Germany used the Marseille meeting to lobby for their plan to amend the European Union treaty to toughen budget discipline, which they want to have ready by March. But several countries are sceptical of full-blown treaty change.
Merkel said on arrival in Brussels: "The euro has lost credibility and this must be won back. We will make clear that we will accept more binding rules."
The new ECB chief said his remark last week that "other elements" might follow if euro zone leaders agreed to seal tougher new budget rules had been overinterpreted as hinting the bank could step up bond purchases.
"I was surprised by the implicit meaning that was given," Draghi said, without offering an alternative interpretation.
The ECB cut its main rate by a quarter-point and flagged a strong chance of recession next year. Draghi admitted the central bankers had been divided even on that decision.
The plight of Europe's banks was also thrown into sharp relief. The European Banking Authority told them to increase their capital by a total of 114.7 billion euros, significantly more than predicted two months ago.
A Reuters poll of economists found that while 33 out of 57 believe the euro zone will probably survive in its current form, 38 of those questioned expected this week's summit would fail to deliver a decisive solution to the debt crisis.
DIVISIONS
Before Draghi spoke, one euro zone source said negotiators were close to agreement for their central banks to lend 150 billion euros to the IMF for firefighting operations.
Although the ECB chief ruled out the IMF buying euro zone bonds, that left the option of lending directly to governments as it more customarily does, although Italy for one has insisted it needs no such assistance.
The EU remains divided over the need for treaty change. Van Rompuy is urging leaders to avoid a laborious full overhaul that could take up to two years and face uncertain ratification.
He wants them instead to slip stricter budget enforcement through in a protocol to existing treaties, a suggestion which infuriated Merkel.
If all 27 EU states do not support more fiscal union by adapting the existing Lisbon treaty, which took eight years to negotiate, then Sarkozy and Merkel want the 17 euro zone countries to go ahead alone with more integration.
Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, speaking for a non-euro state, said: "We want to stick with the 27 concept of course because all of us are members of the European Union and we want to have our influence. We want to keep the European project together."
However, he said there was no support in Sweden for treaty change as of now.
The Franco-German plan would slap automatic penalties on countries that overshoot deficit targets and make countries anchor a balanced budget rule in their constitutions.
"General government budgets shall in principle be balanced. Member states may incur deficits only to take into account the budgetary impact of the economic cycle or in case of exceptional economic circumstances," the draft summit conclusions said.
The sanctions could be stopped only if three quarters of euro zone countries are against them.
Not all euro zone countries are comfortable with all the French and German proposals, with Finland opposed to their call for majority votes on major policy decisions.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, ending a visit to Europe to urge decisive action with talks with new Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, said it was essential for European leaders to strengthen their financial firewall to give economic reforms a chance to work.
Monti is pushing through economic reforms after the euro zone's third biggest economy found itself sucked to the centre of the debt crisis.
With Europe on the brink of collapse, economies all over the world (and in the U.S.) could only be a few short weeks away from TOTAL MELTDOWN!
The situation in Europe is so dire, French President Nicolas Sarkozy recently begged China for a handout.
But even China's given up on Europe, saying "It is up to European countries to tackle their [own] financial problems."
There's simply no way to avoid another financial crisis.
It's not a matter of "if," but when...
Recently on CNBC, veteran investor Jim Rogers said there's a "100% chance" this will happen.
I agree. In fact, I've never been more sure of anything in my life.
But this doesn't mean it's time to panic...
You see, every crisis has a hidden opportunity.
And when Europe crashes -- starting with a Greek default -- a savvy, level-headed, select few could get rich.
Three Times Bigger Than Subprime
You see Greece isn't the only European country in trouble...
Ireland and Portugal are on the brink of default too.
The financial situation in Italy is so bad, Berlusconi was forced to end his 17-year reign as Prime Minister. He's been replaced by Mario Monti, a Goldman Sachs alumni.
Spanish and French bond yields soared to record highs recently, which means they're getting more and more desperate for people to lend them money.
And in Great Britain the government, business, bank and household debt is a staggering 497% of GDP (almost twice as much as in the US)!
But it gets worse...
Total American exposure to the unfolding European debt crisis could be as much as $4 TRILLION... that's THREE times bigger than subprime!
So if you have money in the stock market, a 401K or other savings account, you must prepare for a European collapse right now.
Customers of bankrupt broker MF Global are already out of pocket by an estimated $1.2 billion because of the Euro Crisis.
But this is just the beginning...
Ann Barnhardt said she recently closed her broker business, because...
"MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg. There is massive industry-wide exposure to European sovereign junk debt... [These firms] are suicidally leveraged and will likely stand massive, unmeetable collateral calls in the coming days and weeks as Europe inevitably collapses."
This is why I urge you to take action right now, while there's still time. The US economy is not insulated from the coming crisis.
When Greece defaults, Europe and then America will quickly fall too.
But you could protect your money and even profit from the coming chaos with a simple investment I'll share shortly.
January 2012 Default Indicator #1:
The Disgusting "Greek Bailout" SCAM!
Greece should have defaulted a long time ago. The country has a mountain of debt, and no way to pay it back.
So why do European leaders keep lending Greece money?
Here's what Dan thinks...
European governments aren't trying to save Greece, they're saving banks dumb enough to have "invested" in Greece!
For proof, just take a look at where Greece's bailout money is going (and prepare to be disgusted)...
As you can see, the Greek government keeps just 19% of all the bailout money that's supposedly for Greece, everything else goes to "financials" and the ECB (European Central Bank).
But why is 81% of Greek bailout money going to "financials," when the country has massive debt and expenses to pay?
Because the Greek bailout is secretly ANOTHER bank bailout!
But this is hardly surprising when you dig into the background of the bureaucrats most influential in the Greek bailout scam...
Antonio Borges, was (until very recently) director of the International Monetary Fund's European department.
This means for the last two years, he's been one of the most important people involved in giving Greece bailout money.
Before this, he was a former Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs...
Is it possible he cares more about protecting banks profits than protecting the jobs and pensions of Greek citizens?
Coincidentally, Mario Draghi, current President of the European Central Bank used to work at Goldman Sachs too.
He actually worked there when the firm controversially helped Greece hide its debt through currency swaps!
Though Draghi claims he "knew nothing" about this.
Now at the ECB, he's more than DOUBLED the purchase of European sovereign debt... But because the ECB isn't allowed buy debt directly from governments, it's buying from banks holding the debt instead!
In other words, it's bailing out banks that bought rotten sovereign debt.
And finally there's new interim Prime Minister of Greece, Lucas Papademos...
Before he was appointed Prime Minister, he was Vice President at the ECB, and before that, he worked for the Boston branch of the US Federal Reserve!
The Federal Reserve was recently forced to admit that following the 2008 market meltdown, they lent "Too Big To Fail" banks a whopping $669 billion!
Could "L-Pap's" long experience as a central banker be the reason why banks are getting most of Greece's bailout money?
This might all sound like a big conspiracy theory, but the evidence is crystal clear...
Dan thinks these three bureaucrats are keeping Greece afloat just long enough for their buddies in the banking industry to minimize their losses on sovereign debt before the beginning of the new fiscal year in January 2012.
Just look how banks are frantically taking advantage of this rapidly closing window of opportunity...
France's biggest bank, BNP Paribas just sold European sovereign debt for an $812m LOSS!
Germany's Commerzbank took a loss too as it cut exposure to Greek and other European bonds by 22%.
And Barclays cut exposure to Greek and other European bonds by 31% in just three months.
The fact these big banks are willing to eat huge losses right now proves they are desperate to unload European government debt.
Why?
Dan thinks it's because they know a Greek default is imminent, which would likely result in even bigger losses!
Bottom-Line: The "Greek Bailout" is a SCAM. Most of the money is funneled back to the financial system, giving banks more time to reduce their sovereign debt exposure for the start of the new fiscal year in January 2012.
By then, "Too Big To Fail" banks should have adequately prepared for the coming panic. Greece will be cutoff and default on its debt. Markets worldwide will plunge.
And remember, with exposure THREE times bigger than subprime, the U.S. economy is NOT immune.
So if you don't act now you risk total retirement annihilation.
You also risk missing out on the potential to TRIPLE your money when Greece defaults in January 2012.
Keep reading and I'll show you how to get your hands on Dan's new report that shows you step-by-step how to do this.
But first, here's ANOTHER reason why a Greek default could be weeks away...
January 2012 Default Indicator #2:
Greece's $20 Billion Debt Bomb!
Even after having its debt slashed in half, Greece still owes creditors a massive $20 billion from November through January.
Even after having its debt slashed in half, Greece still owes creditors a massive $20 billion from November through January.
To put this in perspective, that's a little less than THREE TIMES what the Greek government will "earn" in tax revenue in December and January.
Take a look below...
In the last week of December alone, they must pay a huge $8.9bn!
Dan thinks Greece will fail to make one of these payments, causing a Greek default in January 2012!
Why?
Because Greece is already worse than flat broke!
Despite unprecedented austerity cuts, the Greek government is STILLspending more than it's "making," so their $330 billion sovereign debt mountain just gets bigger and bigger!
But what about all the bailout money?
The Economic Times recently reported "Greece needs 10 times more aid in January than it's trying to secure."
The reason for such poor finances is a combination of idiotic socialist policies and rampant tax evasion.
This snippet from a Financial Times article hilariously highlights both of these problems, when recently "a shortage of ink had prevented the tax center at the [Greek] finance ministry from sending out claims to taxpayers..."
You can't make this stuff up!
Yet it gets even more bizarre...
In a feeble attempt to convince creditors Greece is serious about paying off its debt, new interim Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has been appointed.
But here's the delicious irony in giving "L-Pap" power...
He's already had a key role in advising the Greek government on how to handle its finances for years...
And in 2001 he helped bring the Euro currency to Greece, claiming its benefits would be "numerous!"
One Greek newspaper correctly called him a "Carbon Copy of the Past!"
"L-Pap" was like a moronic map-reader in the passenger seat, but now he's taking the steering wheel too!
Will he crash his country's economy straight into a wall?
Dan is 100% certain he will.
Truth is "L-Pap's" appointment might buy more time but the facts behind Greece's fiscal nightmare haven't changed. And Dan doesn't expect the man with a key role in creating the problem can now solve it.
Greece is now so desperate for money, the yield on a one year government bond has soared to 300%!
Simply put...
If you loan the Greek government $10,000, it must -- despite an ever growing mountain of debt -- pay you back $40,000 within a year!
Of course this is a fantasy! The Greek government would never be able to pay you back.
Bottom-line: Greece is out of money and out of time. It will fail to pay its $20bn debt bill from November through January causing a default.
Returning to India from a summit in Bali last month, Manmohan Singh was cheerful and determined: once dubbed "the leader other leaders love", he'd enjoyed meeting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and U.S. President Barack Obama, one of his biggest admirers.
With a host of long-stalled reforms ready for debate in the next parliamentary session, he told a close colleague he was ready to get down to business.
"He came back very buoyant and wanted to show that he was in command," said the political insider, asking not to be named.
But there was little bonhomie waiting for the mild-mannered leader at home, where his blundering, corruption-plagued government has drifted into paralysis and he has been all but written off as yesterday's man.
What unfolded next was testimony to the crisis gripping his party, Congress, which has dominated Indian politics for decades with Gandhi dynasty leaders its lifeblood but now faces an uncertain future.
Determined to salvage his fading reputation as the hero of India's economic miracle and alarmed by mounting signs of economic stress, Singh moved quickly to announce one of the boldest reforms since he became premier in 2004 -- opening the country's $450 billion retail market to foreign operators.
He and his cabinet hoped the move would unleash desperately needed flows of foreign investment and help ease supply-side pressures feeding inflation, which is stuck near double-digits.
"He was really focused on getting things moving, and knew he needed to act," said the political insider.
But Singh's green light for supermarket giants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) and Carrefour (CARR.PA) to enter India provoked an immediate and ferocious backlash from his political opponents, and even some of the ruling coalition allies on whom Congress relies to remain in power.
The firebrand leader of one of those coalition partners, Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress party, was reportedly so incensed with Singh that when he telephoned her to make his case for the reform she refused to take the call.
Within a fortnight, the government had capitulated and suspended the plan indefinitely.
POLITICAL MISSTEPS
The bruising retreat is symptomatic of the flaws of a political system where, over 15 years, coalitions have become the norm. Now, increasingly potent regional parties that share power can hold the government hostage to their demands.
A bitter partisanship has also emerged between Congress and its main rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party, that mirrors the obstructive politicking between Democrats and Republicans in the United States.
The BJP thwarted another reform proposal at a parliamentary committee meeting this week, according to media reports, rejecting a proposal to raise the limit for foreign direct investment in insurance companies to 49 percent from 26 percent.
However, Singh's clumsy handling of the retail reform plan was as much to blame for his failure to get it off the ground.
The decree only needed cabinet approval, which came, but because he chose to push it through when parliament was in session opposition parties saw their chance. They held the government to ransom by stalling proceedings in both parliamentary houses for 10 days until it was put on hold.
"Manmohan Singh ... doesn't want to go down in history as a reformist prime minister who was helpless in the final conclusion." said Vinod Sharma, who is political editor of the Hindustan Times and close to the Congress party.
"But you have to use a lot of political savvy: they didn't do enough of their political homework, or political strategising."
Three years ago, Singh appeared more adroit, managing to push through a civil nuclear agreement with the United States despite initial defeat at the hands of allies and rivals that almost brought down his government.
The retail fiasco is a heavy blow for Singh, 79, and one that might have closed his window of opportunity for steps to liberalise the economy before state polls next year, a crucial staging post to general elections in 2014.
"Most people ... will conclude, and rightly, that we have zero expectation from this government," said Surjit Bhalla, chairman of Oxus Investments, a New Delhi-based consultancy. "The signals for domestic and foreign investors, which they have received for quite some time, is that this government is not going to do anything."
A PARTY IN TROUBLE
This week's about-turn is a stark demonstration of the drift of a party, which - with Singh as its finance minister - kicked off the reforms in 1991 that loosened the state's stifling grip on the economy and catapulted India from near-bankruptcy into a long period of stunning growth.
Since it won a second term in 2009, the Congress party has taken no major policy initiatives to further reform. Instead, an outcry over corruption that brought protests by millions of middle-class urban Indians earlier this year has frozen the government into inaction.
Since its re-election, Congress has seen its popularity decline. In addition to the widespread disgust with the corruption swirling around the government, Singh and his septuagenarian-packed cabinet are increasingly seen as out of touch with the needs of a globalising India.
Congress is now in danger of losing power in Andhra Pradesh, one of its biggest voting blocs, and it stands virtually no chance of winning next year's election in the political heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.
Sources with links to Congress say that part of the problem is the complacency that comes - not just in India - when a government settles into a second term.
But there is a more fundamental malaise within the party: a deep uncertainty over its future leadership and vision.
Singh is effectively the chief executive of a government managed from behind the scenes by Sonia Gandhi, who married into a long-revered dynasty that has essentially run India for two-thirds of the period since independence from Britain in 1947.
Party insiders and experts interviewed by Reuters, who asked not to be identified, said that during Singh's first term in office he managed to strike a fine balance between his modernising, reformist instincts and Gandhi's more pro-poor, populist inclinations.
While there has been no erosion of trust between Singh and Gandhi, that balance may be more difficult to achieve as an economic slowdown makes the need for market-oriented reform all the more urgent and the electoral challenges ahead incline Congress to a more cautious and welfarist approach to policy.
That tension may be coming to the surface already.
"There are conflicts within the Congress party," said Bhalla. "One side is liberal, technocratic, and the other side is feudal and old-fashioned - they do not want to see either new entrants in the political space or new ideas, and still believe playing politics according to the old rules of the game."
LEADERSHIP CRISIS
Underlying the crisis in the party is an anxiety about its leadership.
Sonia Gandhi, 65, suffers from an undisclosed illness widely reported to be cancer, but just how unwell she is remains a closely guarded secret.
This has focused minds on the presumed ascendancy of her 41-year-old son, Rahul, in a party where no other young cadres have been groomed for leadership, or would even dare to claim it ahead of a Gandhi.
However, Rahul Gandhi is untested in the cut-and-thrust of running a government and he has instead spent much of his time rebuilding the youth Congress wing. Recently, he has devoted himself to campaigning for the Uttar Pradesh elections, which many see as a lost cause that will only damage his image.
"Congressmen are very unhappy with Rahul. He's not been able to project himself at a national level," said one party expert.
"Everyone in the party is fed up with the drift, but no one is ready to stand up, challenge the system and try and change it. Rahul can't be the rebel - George Bush's son can't be a Barack Obama - this is a dynastic succession."
"Manmohan Singh ... doesn't want to go down in history as a reformist prime minister who was helpless in the final conclusion." said Vinod Sharma, who is political editor of the Hindustan Times and close to the Congress party.
"But you have to use a lot of political savvy: they didn't do enough of their political homework, or political strategising."
Three years ago, Singh appeared more adroit, managing to push through a civil nuclear agreement with the United States despite initial defeat at the hands of allies and rivals that almost brought down his government.
The retail fiasco is a heavy blow for Singh, 79, and one that might have closed his window of opportunity for steps to liberalise the economy before state polls next year, a crucial staging post to general elections in 2014.
"Most people ... will conclude, and rightly, that we have zero expectation from this government," said Surjit Bhalla, chairman of Oxus Investments, a New Delhi-based consultancy. "The signals for domestic and foreign investors, which they have received for quite some time, is that this government is not going to do anything."
A PARTY IN TROUBLE
This week's about-turn is a stark demonstration of the drift of a party, which - with Singh as its finance minister - kicked off the reforms in 1991 that loosened the state's stifling grip on the economy and catapulted India from near-bankruptcy into a long period of stunning growth.
Since it won a second term in 2009, the Congress party has taken no major policy initiatives to further reform. Instead, an outcry over corruption that brought protests by millions of middle-class urban Indians earlier this year has frozen the government into inaction.
Since its re-election, Congress has seen its popularity decline. In addition to the widespread disgust with the corruption swirling around the government, Singh and his septuagenarian-packed cabinet are increasingly seen as out of touch with the needs of a globalising India.
Congress is now in danger of losing power in Andhra Pradesh, one of its biggest voting blocs, and it stands virtually no chance of winning next year's election in the political heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.
Sources with links to Congress say that part of the problem is the complacency that comes - not just in India - when a government settles into a second term.
But there is a more fundamental malaise within the party: a deep uncertainty over its future leadership and vision.
Singh is effectively the chief executive of a government managed from behind the scenes by Sonia Gandhi, who married into a long-revered dynasty that has essentially run India for two-thirds of the period since independence from Britain in 1947.
Party insiders and experts interviewed by Reuters, who asked not to be identified, said that during Singh's first term in office he managed to strike a fine balance between his modernising, reformist instincts and Gandhi's more pro-poor, populist inclinations.
While there has been no erosion of trust between Singh and Gandhi, that balance may be more difficult to achieve as an economic slowdown makes the need for market-oriented reform all the more urgent and the electoral challenges ahead incline Congress to a more cautious and welfarist approach to policy.
That tension may be coming to the surface already.
"There are conflicts within the Congress party," said Bhalla. "One side is liberal, technocratic, and the other side is feudal and old-fashioned - they do not want to see either new entrants in the political space or new ideas, and still believe playing politics according to the old rules of the game."
LEADERSHIP CRISIS
Underlying the crisis in the party is an anxiety about its leadership.
Sonia Gandhi, 65, suffers from an undisclosed illness widely reported to be cancer, but just how unwell she is remains a closely guarded secret.
This has focused minds on the presumed ascendancy of her 41-year-old son, Rahul, in a party where no other young cadres have been groomed for leadership, or would even dare to claim it ahead of a Gandhi.
However, Rahul Gandhi is untested in the cut-and-thrust of running a government and he has instead spent much of his time rebuilding the youth Congress wing. Recently, he has devoted himself to campaigning for the Uttar Pradesh elections, which many see as a lost cause that will only damage his image.
"Congressmen are very unhappy with Rahul. He's not been able to project himself at a national level," said one party expert.
"Everyone in the party is fed up with the drift, but no one is ready to stand up, challenge the system and try and change it. Rahul can't be the rebel - George Bush's son can't be a Barack Obama - this is a dynastic succession."
A train full of commuters travelling from Tirupati to Varnasi went 980 km in the wrong direction before passengers realized what was happening. It was only when the trained pulled into Warangal, a central Indian city on an entirely different route, that they realized something was wrong. The error in route was caused due to incorrect entry of destination code, sending the train five hours awayfrom its destination. “Though the journey was agonising, we thank our stars that the train did not run into another train,”' an angry passenger said.
Some of the staff, who were apparently sleeping on that leg of the journey, said that they did not catch the mistake since it was a special service to Varnasi, and they were unfamiliar with the route. At Warangal station, the superintendent took corrective measures, bringing the train back to where it should have been for its onward journey to Varanasi.
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The president of the European Council said Friday that a new intergovernmental treaty meant to save the euro currency will include the 17 eurozone states plus six other European Union countries — but not all 27 EU members.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the plan.
"I have always said, the 17 states of the eurogroup have to regain credibility," she said. "And I believe with today's decisions this can and will be achieved."
Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, said the countries would provide up to euro 200 billion ($268 billion) in extra resources to the International Monetary fund.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said early Friday he would have preferred a treaty among all the members of the European Union. But that could not be achieved, he said, because the British proposed that they be exempted from certain financial regulations.
"We could not accept this" because a lack of sufficient regulation caused the current problems, Sarkozy said.
He said the new accord should be ready by March.
Does this mean Equity markets will remain shut for companies for coming years??
Barring an extraordinary change in investor behavior in the largest emerging economies, the role of equities in the global financial system will likely be reduced in the coming decade. That's the central finding of The emerging equity gap: Growth and stability in the new investor landscape, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). As emerging-market households attain a level of income that enables them to purchase financial assets, they are becoming a powerful new investor class, whose choices will help determine global demand for different asset classes. The actions of these new investors will, in turn, shape how businesses obtain the capital they need to grow, how other investors around the world fare, and how stable and resilient economies will be.
The MGI study found that financial assets held by investors in developing nations have been growing at more than three times the rate of assets in developed nations, raising their share of global financial wealth from 7 percent to 21 percent over the past decade, or about $41.3 trillion. By the end of the current decade, investors in developing economies will hold as much as 36 percent of global financial wealth, or between $114 trillion and $141 trillion.
Emerging-market investors currently behave differently than those in mature economies. Investors in Europe, the United States, and wealthier parts of Asia, such as Hong Kong, hold 30 to 40 percent or more of their financial assets in equities, but the new investors of the emerging economies keep three-quarters of theirs in deposit accounts. While the use of equities in developing economies to finance growth and build savings is increasing, this evolution is taking place slowly. The likely result: a shift in the global allocation of financial assets toward deposits and fixed-income instruments and away from equities in this decade. This shift is being exacerbated by aging and other trends in the developed world that are dampening investor appetite for equities. As a result, equities could decline from 28 percent of global financial assets in 2010 to 22 percent in 2020.
What's behind the slow adoption of equity investing in developing markets? For an equity-investing culture to take root, there must be trusted, transparent markets with strong protections for small investors, as well as the institutions and systems to provide easy market access. Rules and regulations may be in place in emerging markets today, but enforcement is often unreliable. When the correct conditions are in place, investors are likely to gravitate to equities for higher returns.
In the meantime, even though total investor demand for equities will grow over the next decade, it will fall short of what corporations need by $12.3 trillion. This imbalance between the supply and demand for equity will be most pronounced in emerging economies, where companies need significant external financing for growth. In the United States and several other developed countries, investor demand for equities will exceed what companies will need, partly because many companies in mature economies generate sufficient profits to finance their growth. In Europe, however, allocations to equity are already falling, while the need for additional equity is rising for banks that must meet new capital requirements, making a significant equity gap likely.
The market will adjust to close this gap—but it will do so through a higher cost of equity to companies, which may prompt many firms to use less equity and more debt to fund growth. This will have ramifications for the global capital markets system, economies, and businesses alike.
MGI_Emerging_equity_gap_Full_report.pdf
Global - Economy and Market
EU fails to agree on treaty change among 27 states: diplomats
The European Union failed to secure backing from all 27 countries to change the EU treaty at a summit on Friday, meaning any deal will now likely involve the 17 euro zone countries plus any others that want to join, three EU diplomats said.
China Nov inflation tumbles, more easing eyed
BEIJING - China's annual inflation rate tumbled in November to 4.2 percent, the lowest level in more than a year, fuelling expectations of further monetary policy easing to combat deteriorating domestic and international economic conditions.
U.S. firms build cash buffer to European crisis in Q3
WASHINGTON - U.S. companies sat on their largest pile of cash on record during the third quarter, providing a substantial buffer against any blow that might come from Europe's debt crisis, data from the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.
States' revenues at pre-recession levels: study
WASHINGTON - Total tax revenues of U.S. states returned to pre-recession levels in the 2011 third quarter, a public policy institute reported on Thursday, but revenue growth slowed during the period, a worrisome trend for states concerned that economic clouds are gathering as they begin drafting their budgets for next year..
European recession could boost U.S. markets, experts say
A European recession would slow the global economic recovery, but it wouldn't be all bad for the U.S., said experts at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Howard Pack, a professor of business and public policy, said U.S. stock markets could benefit as European investors shift their money to America.
ECB cool on more bond buying, lending to IMF
FRANKFURT - The European Central Bank doused hopes on Thursday it will ramp up its bond-buying program to fight the bloc's debt crisis, unnerving markets hours before a high-stakes EU summit they had hoped would produce a 'grand bargain' to end the turmoil.
Wholesale inventories rise 1.6 percent in October
WASHINGTON - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose more than expected in October, gaining the most in five months, while sales also rose.
Wall St falls on dashed euro-zone hopes, Germany's rejection
- Wall Street fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank dashed hopes that policy-makers were preparing a financial "bazooka" to contain the debt crisis, and Germany rejected some proposals to add power to the euro zone's bailout fund..
India - Economy and Market
Food inflation rate falls to near 3-1/2 yr low
NEW DELHI - India's annual food inflation eased to its lowest in nearly three-and-a-half years in late November, driven by a sharp fall in prices of vegetables and protein-rich food, bolstering the case for a pause in rates when the RBI reviews policy next week.Y
The primary articles price index was up 6.92%, compared with an annual rise of 7.74% in the prior week.
India's headline inflation has stayed above 9% for the 11th month in October, despite 13 rate increases by the central bank since March 2010.
India Inc fears populist measures and higher fiscal deficit as general elections approach
Businessmen have seen such harsh times before. The common buzzword across corridors of corporate India is to stay in cash and be cautious.
After FDI in retail, another jolt for govt in FDI in insurance
NEW DELHI: After the setback on FDI in retail, government was in for another jolt as a Parliamentary Committee has rejected its proposal for raising the foreign investment cap in insurance sector from 26 per cent to 49 per cent.
Apart from various aspects of the insurance bill, the Standing Committee on Finance also asked the government to bring an integrated modern banking law for India, instead of bringing piecemeal amendments.
Private equity investments spike up in November
In a complete contrast to the activity in October 2011, PE investment activity improved significantly during November 2011 with the highest number of deals this year. Real estate, hospitality and construction (RHC) sector received the highest value of investments - on the back of three large transactions during the month.
Technology News –
Facebook IPO sparks dreams of riches, adventure
(Reuters) - Traveling to space or embarking on an expedition to excavate lost Mayan ruins are normally the stuff of adventure novels.
But for employees of Facebook, these and other lavish dreams are moving closer to reality as the world's No. 1 online social network prepares for a blockbuster initial public offering that could create at least a thousand millionaires.
Analysis: Venture capital funding doubles for online retail
SAN FRANCISCO - Consumers spent a record $1.25 billion on Cyber Monday, according to comScore, highlighting how much people love shopping online.
Videocon plans to set up mobile phone facility by next year
Videocon plans to set up its first mobile phone manufacturing plant in India, which could entail an investment of up to Rs 75 crore in the initial phase.
Mini-laptop market to shrink by 40 mn in 2012
Tablet computers will eat into the miniature laptop market by 40 million units in 2012, the head of a Taiwanese research institute has said.
Microsoft opens global delivery centre in Bangalore
Software major Microsoft on Thursday opened a global delivery centre in this Indian tech hub for providing consulting and enterprise services to its clients worldwide.
IBM to buy DemandTec for $440 million
IBM says it is buying DemandTec, a price-management software company, for $440 million in cash to expand its commerce service offerings.
Will provide all support to IT sector: Mamata Banerjee
Mamata Banerjee called upon industrialists to generously invest in the IT sector in the state, saying her government was ready to provide all support.
Daily_Markets_Eco_9Dec2011.doc