Indian equity benchmarks fell for the eighth consecutive session on Monday -- the Sensex shed more than 1600 points in eight days -- tracking sharp fall in the rupee to fresh 32-month lows. Huge cash in by the foreign investors coupled with rising concerns over US and eurozone debt crisis helped the bears to become more greedy. The 30-share BSE Sensex closed at one and half month lows and has seen the biggest fall since the May 3, 2011.
The index dropped 425.41 points or 2.60%, to end at 15,946.10 led by fall in 28 stocks. Meanwhile, the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 2.6%, or 127.45 points, to end at 4,778.35.
Ambareesh Baliga, COO of Way2wealth says, unless the rupee and the inflation fall in place he doesn’t see too much of a hope for the market at least in the short to medium term.
The Indian rupee touched the 52 to the dollar during the day, falling 69 paise - a fresh 32-month low. It fell 76 paise to 69.94 an euro.
PN Vijay, Portfolio Manager feels that this is very serious stuff. He expects some RBI action on both fronts - "It has to bring rupee back to 50 levels, get the exporters out and sell their dollars; and it has to cut rates," he said.
Infosys seems worried about the rising rupee. Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan said the company might not meet the guidance at upper end of 17-19%. "Environment remains uncertain and clients are deferring spend," he explained. The stock lost 3%.
Global uncertainty was another cause of concern; British PM David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to narrow differences over the introduction of a financial transaction tax in Europe in last weekend. European markets like France's CAC, Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE fell 2-2.4% while the Dow Jones futures lost 146 points.
Metals, banks, realty, power, auto and oil & gas stocks got butchered quite badly; respective sectoral indices tanked 2.6-3.5%. IT and Capital Goods indices dropped over 2%.
Largecaps like ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, BHEL and Sterlite Industries crashed 5% each. Heavyweights Infosys, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, HDFC, SBI, TCS, Bharti and ONGC were down 2-3%.
However, Sun Pharma and Maruti outperformed other largecaps - ended marginally higher.
The market breadth was pathetic; about three shares declined for every share rising on the National Stock Exchange. The BSE Midcap Index was down 1.9% and Smallcap down 1.7%.
Pantaloon Retail, Aban Offshore, Delta Corp, Suzlon Energy, Educomp, Sun TV, SREI Infra, Adani Enterprises and BGR Energy plunged 6-12%.
At 15:13 hours IST : Sensex below 16000, Nifty at 4790; rupee falls to 52/$
With rupee breaching the 52/USD mark, the stock market sentiment has been bruised further. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 387 points to below 16000 at 15984.42 and the 50-share NSE Nifty crashed 118 points to 4,788. Global environment, which has been the key reason for today's capitulation, has shown no signs of reversing the trend. France's CAC, Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE tumbled 2-3% while the Dow Jones futures lost 138 points.
Not a single sector was in the green; the BSE Metal Index plunged 3.5%. Bank, Realty, Auto, Power and Oil & Gas indices tanked 2.6-3%. Capital Goods, IT, Pharma and FMCG lost 1-2%.
Tata Motors, BHEL, ICICI Bank and Sterlite Industries were down 4.55% each. Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys, TCS, SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Tata Steel dropped 2-3%. However, Maruti and Sun Pharma were only gainers.
The broader indices extended losses too; the BSE Midcap and Smallcap fell 1.7% each. Even the market breadth weakened; about three shares declined for every share rising on the National Stock Exchange.
At 14:18 hours IST : Sensex crashes 350 pts, Nifty touches 4800 as Europe falls
Indian equity benchmark Sensex has not seen any recovery since morning; in fact it slipped further following a fall of 1.5-2% in the European markets. The Dow Jones futures too lost 152 points. The 30-share BSE Sensex touched the one-and-half months low today; falling 350 points to 16,021 and the 50-share NSE Nifty tumbled 107 points to 4,798.
In the last weekend, British PM David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to narrow differences over the introduction of a financial transaction tax in Europe. However, in the US - there were talks that US lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement to cut the budget deficit.
The Indian rupee too depreciated further to 51.87 to the dollar (lost 54 paise) and 69.83 to an euro (fell 65 paise), which resulted huge outflow of money. S&P CNX Defty tanked over 3%.
Heavyweights Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and BHEL lost 3%, 3.6 and 4.5%, respectively.
HDFC Bank, TCS and NTPC among other largecaps tumbled over 2%. Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto and Sterlite Industries were down 3-3.7%.
Infosys, HDFC, SBI, ITC, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and L&T declined 1-1.8%. However, Maruti and Coal India bucked the trend, gaining 1% and 0.65%, respectively.
The market breadth worsened further; about two shares slipped for every share rising on the National Stock Exchange.
At 12:46 hours IST : Nifty below 4850; SBI, RIL, L&T, Tata Motors most active
The market has been falling for the eighth consecutive session today due to European jitters, depreciating rupee and now the US debt problem. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 201 points to 16,170.10 and the 50-shares NSE Nifty lost 60 points to 4,845.65 led by sell-off in oil & gas, banks, metals, capital goods and technology stocks.
Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Consulting, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, said there could be further downside for our market going forward as global headwinds remain strong.
SAIL, BHEL, HCL Tech, Ranbaxy Labs, Bajaj Auto, NTPC, Tata Motors and Sterlite Industries were biggest losers among largecaps, falling 2-3.5%.
However, Maruti Suzuki outperformed other frontrunners, rising 2%. Jaiprakash Associates, Coal India, DLF and Reliance Infrastructure gained 0.5-1%.
SBI, Reliance Industries, L&T, Pipavav Defence, Tata Motors and Bharti Airtel were most active shares on exchanges.
Midcaps like Peninsula Land, Amtek Auto, S Kumars Nationwide, MVL and Pipavav Defence rallied 4-6% while Kwality Dairy, Hindustan National Glass, Sterling Tools, Pantaloon Retail and VIP Industries dropped 5-10%.
Declining outnumbered advancing ones by 805 to 463 on the National Stock Exchange.
At 11:30 hours IST : Sensex drops over 200 pts; BHEL hits 52-week low
The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex extended losses led by heavy fall in heavyweights like Reliance Industries and BHEL (hit a 52-week low of 265.20); respective stocks dropped 3-3.5% each. Asian markets too slipped further; Hang Seng was down 2% and Taiwan tanked 2.6%. Shanghai and Straits Times fell 0.7% each; and Kosp lost 1%. The Sensex dived 214 points to 16,157.82 and the Nifty fell 64 points to 4,842.15.
Fund Manager at Helios Capital Samir Arora is critical on the government and RBI’s policy on the Indian rupee. He finds that the market movement is affected due to poor macros projected by them. “In these volatile times we need a comforting voice on the currency,” he says adding that the fundamentals are not determining the currency anymore. A retest of the 4,700 level could happen.
Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto crashed 3% each. In the banking and financial space, HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI (has touched more than two-year low of Rs 1690.1) dropped 1.4-2%.
L&T, which was trying to support the market in early trade, too slipped nearly 1%. Among other largecaps, ITC, TCS, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel and Sterlite were down 1-1.7%.
However, Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Sun Pharma, JP Associates, Cipla and Coal India were only gainers.
The Indian rupee was trading at 51.68 to the dollar (fell 35 paise) and 69.87 to the euro (lost 68 paise).
At 10:30 hours IST : Nifty loses 1%; banks, tech, metals stocks down
Indian equity benchmark Nifty fell nearly a percent led by further depreciation in the rupee. The sell-off in banks, telecom, technology and power stocks has weighed on the market; heavyweight Reliance Industries was the leading loser since the opening, falling 2.4%. The BSE Sensex fell 147 points to 16,224.51 and the NSE Nifty plummeted 44.75 points to 4,861.05.
Asian markets were continued to reel under selling pressure on account of ongoing eurozone and US debt worries. Hang Seng lost 1.8% and Taiwan tanked 2.2%. Straits Times and Kospi were down 0.7-1%. Nikkei and Shanghai were marginally lower.
The Indian rupee fell 37 paise to 51.70 a dollar today as against Friday's closing level.
Subramaniam Sharma of Greenback Forex Services feels that the rupee is likely to remain under pressure on the back of continued demand from importers, oil marketing companies and weak Asian equities. "Demand from corporates for redemption of FCCBs to the tune of about Rs 5 billion over the next couple of weeks will also add to the rupee woes," he said.
TCS, ITC, HDFC Bank, SBI, Bharti Airtel, NTPC and BHEL slipped between 1% and 2%. Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto were down 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively.
Metal stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco, Sterlite and Jindal Steel too melted down - dropped 1-1.7%.
However, L&T, Maruti, Coal India and JP Associates outperformed other frontliners, rising 1-1.9%.
In the midcap space, Peninsula Land, S Kumars Nation, Aurobindo Pharma, Sintex Industries and PTC India gained 3-6% while Kwality Dairy, Shree Global, Vaarad Ventures, India Securities and Puravankara Projects tumbled 4-10%.
The market breadth was weak; about 466 shares gained as against 711 shares declined on the National Stock Exchange.
At 9:20 hours IST : Sensex sinks 100 pts on opening; RIL, Bharti draggers
The BSE benchmark Sensex fell over 100 points in the opening trade, tracking weak global cues. The eurozone remianed crisis-prone as British PM David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to narrow down differences over the introduction of a financial transaction tax in Europe last weekend. The ripples of the crisis was felt on Asian markets.
The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 158 points to 16,213.69 in the opening trade while the 50-share NSE Nifty lost 50 points to 4,856.05.
The Indian rupee depreciated to 51.48 a dollar in the morning trade, losing 0.3% as compared to Friday's rate of 51.33/USD.
Heavyweights Bharti Airtel (on 2G scam news) and Reliance Industries were down 2% each.
Sterlite, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC, JSPL, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Reliance Communications, Reliance Infra, DLF, ITC and M&M were knocked the market 1% lower in early trade.
However, BPCL, ONGC and Cipla were witnessing buying interest.
The CNX Midcap fell 30 points to 6,609. The market breadth has remained in favour of declines; about three shares fell for every share rising.
PFC and Shree Renuka and Kingfisher up 1-2%. Pipavav Defence rose 3.5%.
Parsvnath was up 0.7% on short covering; stock fell 20% last Friday.
Gitanjali Gems tumbled 3% as the stock will go out of F&O from November 25.
Punj Lloyd, IVRCL, GTL, Patni, JSW Steel, S Kumars and IFCI crashed 3-4%.
Global cues
European markets ended off day's low on Friday, but disagreement amid top political leader’s continued.
The US equity markets ended flat ahead of talks that US lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement to cut the budget deficit.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 25 points at 11,794 on Friday; it was down 3% for week while gained 2% YTD.
The NASDAQ Composite was down 15 points at 2,571; it was down 4% for week and down 3% YTD.
The S&P 500 Index fell 0.5 points at 1,215; it was down 3.8% for week and down 3.3% YTD.
Europe
British PM David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to narrow differences over the introduction of a financial transaction tax in Europe.
Reports suggest that ECB is considering lending money to the IMF to be used for bailing out euro zone countries.
Another report suggests that Germany and the ECB remain opposed to the plan.
Commodities
CRB Commodity Index was down 0.7%.
Crude Oil fell 1.4% at USD 97.41/barrel after opening up 1%
Natural gas was up 2.6% at USD 3.31 per MMBtu
Gold rose 0.2% at USD 1724.5/ounce
Silver went up 3% to USD 32.47/ounce
The Australian arm of collapsed U.S. futures broker MF Global was shut down after failing to get an adequate offer and the Australian administrator expects a similar outcome for the brokers Asia business.
"We could not get a sale as a going concern," Chris Campbell, a partner at administrator Deloitte told Reuters by telephone.
"I am pretty sure the Asian sale is not happening either. I believe Asia will have a similar outcome."
MF Global went bankrupt on Oct. 31, sunk by its disastrous bets on euro zone debt.
Three weeks its collapse, furious former customers are still fighting for access to billions of dollars globally as they question why as much as two-thirds of their money is still stuck.
A sale failure to could mean the end of the road for MF Global's Asia business, which according to firm's last annual report generated around 14.4 percent of its global revenue. Asian liquidators had earlier said there were more than 50 interested parties for the Asia-Pacific business.
The provisional liquidators for the business in Hong Kong earlier this month said the sale process has proved increasingly complex and the focus was on selling units separately. No deal has been reached yet though.
In Asia, the brokerage has large derivative businesses in Singapore, offices in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Taipei, Shanghai and a joint venture in India with Sify Technologies.
The Australian business made 83 employees of MF Global Australia redundant last Friday, Campbell said and the administrators would now focus on returning money to clients.
Earlier this month Campbell estimates administrators have nearly half the total funds owed to the Australian business's clients in cash, with most of the remainder tied up with counterparties.
Counterparties owed MF Global Australia A$167 million ($168.7 million), or just over half the A$313 million of client funds, he had said.
There was no material change to the estimates and it would take a while before clients money is returned, Campbell added.
"There is a fair amount of work to be done," he said.
( Source: Reuters )
World markets have been down last week reported its worst week as the sentiments get worsened by Europe's soaring debt prices. Europe took a center stage of world markets and ignored better economic data of US. All the news and indicators are very positive last week from US economy, but sentiment remained negative, as some investors stay side ways due to uncertainty in Europe. US super committee is facing a deadline to cut debt of $ 1.2 trillion over next 10 years by wednesday midnight and Europe is still uncertain about Greece and Italy.
According to the analysts, these events might give a temporary negative sentiments to the markets and once market realize US economy's health, they will kick start buying stocks. Don't be more panic and pick some stock for investment, as markets are not going to be doomed as per analysts predictions.
According to the analysts, these events might give a temporary negative sentiments to the markets and once market realize US economy's health, they will kick start buying stocks. Don't be more panic and pick some stock for investment, as markets are not going to be doomed as per analysts predictions.
A 40-year-old passenger has died after he slipped and fell onto the tracks while trying to board a train at the Nizamuddin Railway Station in New Delhi.
Pictures of Aishwarya Rai and her newborn baby girl have been doing the rounds on the internet. However, Ash's father-in-law, megastar Amitabh Bachchan and her husband, Abhishek Bachchan have claimed the pictures to be fake.
'Many morphed pictures of the 'little one' with her mother in hospital doing the rounds on the net... all fake!!' -- Amitabh posted on his Twitter page.
'To be my daughter in her mother's arms. Full points for creativity to the people who made them. Spent the morning with the girls and showing them some rather entertaining photos morphed by some very talented people of who is supposed...' Abhishek wrote with sarcasm.
Aishwarya gave birth to her first child Wednesday morning at a private hospital in Mumbai. Abhishek announced the news through the micro-blogging site.
The electronic media gave only limited footage to the news of Ash's delivery, following a reported 10-point directive from the Broadcast Editor's Association (BEA) warning news channels against excessive coverage on TV of her childbirth.
Thanking the media, the Bachchan senior tweeted: 'And once again a word of kindness to the electronic media for their non interference and dignified distance... thank you!!
'A word of appreciation too, to the print media for highlighting a few salient points... our joy in welcoming the girl child... and emphasising the commendable desire of Aishwarya in having a normal delivery without any epidural or pain killers. The often coined phrase 'too posh to push' was put to rest in her case... she was determined to do it the way she felt was correct!' he added.
The 69-year-old third-time grandfather is already receiving suggestion for the baby's name, though Abhishek has chosen to nickname her 'Beti B'.
'More time spent with the 'little one'... each and every movement sinking deep into our memory cells... to narrate to them when older! Thank you all for sending in suggestions for names for the baby... some of them really good... will run it by the parents!' he wrote.
( Source: IANS )
The rupee hit a new 32-month low in early trades on Monday as negative local shares and dollar demand from oil refiners weighed.
At 9:15 am, the partially convertible rupee was at 51.4950/5150 per dollar, compared with Friday's close of 51.3350/3450, after touching 51.5400, a level last seen on March 16, 2009.
Traders expect the rupee to move in a 51.35 to 51.65 range with the next near-term target at 52.2, which is the rupee's record low.
The BSE Sensex opened down 0.5%.
Traders said oil refiners, the largest buyers of dollars in the domestic currency market, would likely step in to cover import commitments around current levels, pressuring the rupee.
The euro got off to a subdued start in Asia on Monday after a short-covering squeeze late last week ran out of steam and news of an overwhelming election victory for Spain's centre-right opposition was greeted with cautious optimism.
The euro was trading at USD 1.3529, from USD 1.3520 on Friday, while the index of the dollar index was at 78.008 points from 77.970 points.
According to a message from a CEO of Speak Asia on the website www.speakasiaonline.com, the service of taking online surveys will be restored after a long hold and people who involved in that will get their money
Below is the news from Website
" Dear Speak Asians, Today at 7 pm India time your CEO Mr. Manoj Kumar will address all of you and all else interested through a message on YOUTUBE. We encourage all of you to watch and know the way forward. A link to his message will be available on the SpeakAsia website as well, post the youtube telecast."
" Dear Speak Asians, The wait is over !!!!!!! Keeping in line with our strategy and as communicated earlier, we proudly present to you our new web-site. This site is our foundation for a 'new age e-commerce platform' designed to fulfill aspirations of an empowered consumer like you. Operations in India; As you already know, our application for establishing a permanent establishment in India is awaiting government clearance.We really hope that we get a nod from the Government of India, in the coming weeks. We did send a few test payments for the panelists and our suppliers for "rewards" in the last 15 days, sadly these amounts were not credited by their banks due to certain precautionary circulars issued by the Reserve Bank of India. We have already put in process all the necessary actions with the competent authorities for allowing us to resume our normal banking operations. In the meantime, with launch of this new web-site, you will be able to earn and burn your accrued reward points by buying products and services on the SpeakAsia platform. You will also be able to get subscription codes using your referral income. Dear friends, this is only the first of the many steps towards realising & fulfilling the dreams that all of us at Speak Asia share. We assure that in the near future you will be given a host of new opportunities to earn and burn your reward points. Look forward to your continuous support as always. Thanking you Team Speak Asia
Below is the news from Website
" Dear Speak Asians, Today at 7 pm India time your CEO Mr. Manoj Kumar will address all of you and all else interested through a message on YOUTUBE. We encourage all of you to watch and know the way forward. A link to his message will be available on the SpeakAsia website as well, post the youtube telecast."
" Dear Speak Asians, The wait is over !!!!!!! Keeping in line with our strategy and as communicated earlier, we proudly present to you our new web-site. This site is our foundation for a 'new age e-commerce platform' designed to fulfill aspirations of an empowered consumer like you. Operations in India; As you already know, our application for establishing a permanent establishment in India is awaiting government clearance.We really hope that we get a nod from the Government of India, in the coming weeks. We did send a few test payments for the panelists and our suppliers for "rewards" in the last 15 days, sadly these amounts were not credited by their banks due to certain precautionary circulars issued by the Reserve Bank of India. We have already put in process all the necessary actions with the competent authorities for allowing us to resume our normal banking operations. In the meantime, with launch of this new web-site, you will be able to earn and burn your accrued reward points by buying products and services on the SpeakAsia platform. You will also be able to get subscription codes using your referral income. Dear friends, this is only the first of the many steps towards realising & fulfilling the dreams that all of us at Speak Asia share. We assure that in the near future you will be given a host of new opportunities to earn and burn your reward points. Look forward to your continuous support as always. Thanking you Team Speak Asia
There comes a time to step back from one's daily activities in the market and reflect philosophically on one's "method". Usually, this is triggered by reading an interesting book or article – and today I present you a fascinating extract from a new book ("Thinking , Fast and Slow") written by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman, one of the leading lights of behavorial economics. To summarise;
-As a young psychology student in Israel , he was assigned to assess leadership qualities of candidates for the army's officer training programme. This involved observing their behaviour in a "leadership group challenge" played out on an obstacle course.
-They found out that their ability to predict performance at the training school was not much better than blind guesses. However, (more surprisingly) having this knowledge did not have any effect on how they evaluated future candidates and on their confidence levels in their predictions-i.e. the "cognitive illusion".
-Their knowledge of the general rule that they could not accurately predict did not affect their confidence levels in predicting individual cases. Confidence is only a feeling, and declarations of high confidence indicates only the construction of a coherent story in the individual's mind and not necessarily its truth.
-The theory that the market price is always right, as it incorporates all available knowledge about the stock's price, implies that no one can expect future gains or losses from trading. However, this is not correct as many individual investors loose consistently by trading.
-This was first borne out by a study which analysed the performance of individual investors over a seven-year period, where investors sold a stock and soon followed with a purchase of another stock, with the returns for the stocks compared a year later. The study found, on average, that the stocks which were sold outperformed the ones subsequently bought by 3.2% over a year!
-Later studies also showed that the most active traders had the poorest returns while investors who traded the least had the best results. They also showed that men acted on their useless ideas more often than women, and therefore underperformed women!
-In general, financial institutions and professional investors profited by being on the other sides of these trades and took advantage of the mistakes made by individual investors who (over the short run) typically sold "winners" too early and hung onto "losers" for too long.
-Professional investors and fund managers also fail the test of persistent achievement –50 years of research points out that for a large majority of fund managers, stock selection is more like playing dice than playing poker (which requires skill), and 2 out of 3 fund managers underperform the market every year.
-The year-to-year correlation of returns for fund managers is almost zero implying that successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky. Nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not, are playing a game of chance. Educated guesses are no more accurate than blind guesses!
-They also did a study of the performance of 25 wealth advisers over eight consecutive years, and found that there was no correlation between different pairs of years implying that there were no differences in skill and, in essence, the results were no different from what you would expect from a game of dice.
-This illusion of skill, was deeply ingrained in their culture, and facts which challenge such beliefs – and thereby threaten people's livelihood and self-esteem- are rejected. People generally ignore fact based information when it clashes with their personal experiences.
-Why do investors, amateur and professional, believe that they can beat the market which is contrary to both economic theory and an analysis of their past performance?
-The psychological cause for this illusion is that people who pick stocks are exercising high-level skills – by analysing economic data, income statements and balance sheets, evaluating quality of management and assessing the competition.
-Unfortunately, skills in evaluating a business are not sufficient for successful stock trading and the key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the stock price. Traders apparently lack the skill to answer this crucial information and are typically ignorant of their ignorance.
Fascinating stuff, and herein lies a key lesson for all of us – investing (for the long haul) is not about trying to appear (and acting !) smart and trying to beat the market –it is about having reasonable expectations, a lot of humility, and a rigorous discipline in following (and periodically re-evaluating) an individual investment method with honesty. Having the courage to go against the herd (with a calculator in hand!) , and consequently the stomach to withstand market volatility and underperformance, is also an absolutely critical requirement for long term investment success. Constructing a well diversified portfolio is crucial, as you can never be sure which trades will work out and which will not. Asset allocation decisions based on historical valuation trends and their mean reverting tendencies , rather than individual stock picking, is a method which provides a superior risk/reward profile (unless you are Warren Buffet!). Periodic rebalancing (quarterly?) rather than active trading, as the above studies have proven, is also a must. Lastly, do not underestimate the role which chance plays in your success (or lack of it!) – but that doesn't mean hard work doesn't count – keep in mind the old saying – "fortune favours the prepared'!
The above view is age-old, but unfortunately ignored by most – to quote from the Bible: " I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all."
Having said that, we are all likely to nod in agreement, and (rather quickly) go back to our own ways and continue searching for (or believing in) the magic formula to "beat the market"!
Bonds versus stocks:
It's now official-bonds have been more fun than stocks over the last 30 years!
"The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that's happened since before the Civil War. Long-term government bonds have gained 11.5 percent a year on average over the past three decades, beating the 10.8 percent increase in the S&P 500, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago."
"The generation-long outperformance of bonds over stocks has been the biggest investment theme that everyone has just gotten plain wrong," Bianco said. "It's such an ingrained idea in everyone's head that such low yields should be shunned in favour of stocks, that no one wants to disrupt the idea, never mind the fact that it has been off."
Income inequality (via Paul Krugman):
A graph below which illustrates quote vividly the growing divide in the "haves" and the "haves-nots" in the US – the real income of the top 1% has risen by almost 3 times over the last 30 years, while that of the chunk of the population below (21st to 80th percentile) has risen by only about 40%.
-As a young psychology student in Israel , he was assigned to assess leadership qualities of candidates for the army's officer training programme. This involved observing their behaviour in a "leadership group challenge" played out on an obstacle course.
-They found out that their ability to predict performance at the training school was not much better than blind guesses. However, (more surprisingly) having this knowledge did not have any effect on how they evaluated future candidates and on their confidence levels in their predictions-i.e. the "cognitive illusion".
-Their knowledge of the general rule that they could not accurately predict did not affect their confidence levels in predicting individual cases. Confidence is only a feeling, and declarations of high confidence indicates only the construction of a coherent story in the individual's mind and not necessarily its truth.
-The theory that the market price is always right, as it incorporates all available knowledge about the stock's price, implies that no one can expect future gains or losses from trading. However, this is not correct as many individual investors loose consistently by trading.
-This was first borne out by a study which analysed the performance of individual investors over a seven-year period, where investors sold a stock and soon followed with a purchase of another stock, with the returns for the stocks compared a year later. The study found, on average, that the stocks which were sold outperformed the ones subsequently bought by 3.2% over a year!
-Later studies also showed that the most active traders had the poorest returns while investors who traded the least had the best results. They also showed that men acted on their useless ideas more often than women, and therefore underperformed women!
-In general, financial institutions and professional investors profited by being on the other sides of these trades and took advantage of the mistakes made by individual investors who (over the short run) typically sold "winners" too early and hung onto "losers" for too long.
-Professional investors and fund managers also fail the test of persistent achievement –50 years of research points out that for a large majority of fund managers, stock selection is more like playing dice than playing poker (which requires skill), and 2 out of 3 fund managers underperform the market every year.
-The year-to-year correlation of returns for fund managers is almost zero implying that successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky. Nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not, are playing a game of chance. Educated guesses are no more accurate than blind guesses!
-They also did a study of the performance of 25 wealth advisers over eight consecutive years, and found that there was no correlation between different pairs of years implying that there were no differences in skill and, in essence, the results were no different from what you would expect from a game of dice.
-This illusion of skill, was deeply ingrained in their culture, and facts which challenge such beliefs – and thereby threaten people's livelihood and self-esteem- are rejected. People generally ignore fact based information when it clashes with their personal experiences.
-Why do investors, amateur and professional, believe that they can beat the market which is contrary to both economic theory and an analysis of their past performance?
-The psychological cause for this illusion is that people who pick stocks are exercising high-level skills – by analysing economic data, income statements and balance sheets, evaluating quality of management and assessing the competition.
-Unfortunately, skills in evaluating a business are not sufficient for successful stock trading and the key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the stock price. Traders apparently lack the skill to answer this crucial information and are typically ignorant of their ignorance.
Fascinating stuff, and herein lies a key lesson for all of us – investing (for the long haul) is not about trying to appear (and acting !) smart and trying to beat the market –it is about having reasonable expectations, a lot of humility, and a rigorous discipline in following (and periodically re-evaluating) an individual investment method with honesty. Having the courage to go against the herd (with a calculator in hand!) , and consequently the stomach to withstand market volatility and underperformance, is also an absolutely critical requirement for long term investment success. Constructing a well diversified portfolio is crucial, as you can never be sure which trades will work out and which will not. Asset allocation decisions based on historical valuation trends and their mean reverting tendencies , rather than individual stock picking, is a method which provides a superior risk/reward profile (unless you are Warren Buffet!). Periodic rebalancing (quarterly?) rather than active trading, as the above studies have proven, is also a must. Lastly, do not underestimate the role which chance plays in your success (or lack of it!) – but that doesn't mean hard work doesn't count – keep in mind the old saying – "fortune favours the prepared'!
The above view is age-old, but unfortunately ignored by most – to quote from the Bible: " I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all."
Having said that, we are all likely to nod in agreement, and (rather quickly) go back to our own ways and continue searching for (or believing in) the magic formula to "beat the market"!
Bonds versus stocks:
It's now official-bonds have been more fun than stocks over the last 30 years!
"The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that's happened since before the Civil War. Long-term government bonds have gained 11.5 percent a year on average over the past three decades, beating the 10.8 percent increase in the S&P 500, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago."
"The generation-long outperformance of bonds over stocks has been the biggest investment theme that everyone has just gotten plain wrong," Bianco said. "It's such an ingrained idea in everyone's head that such low yields should be shunned in favour of stocks, that no one wants to disrupt the idea, never mind the fact that it has been off."
Income inequality (via Paul Krugman):
A graph below which illustrates quote vividly the growing divide in the "haves" and the "haves-nots" in the US – the real income of the top 1% has risen by almost 3 times over the last 30 years, while that of the chunk of the population below (21st to 80th percentile) has risen by only about 40%.
News Highlights - Week of 31 October - 4 November 2011
Consumer price inflation in Indonesia slowed to 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October from 4.6% in September on account of lower prices for most food items. Consumer price inflation in the Republic of Korea eased to 3.9% y-o-y in October from 4.3% in September. In the Philippines, consumer price inflation quickened to 5.2% y-o-y in October from 4.8% in September. In Thailand, consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% y-o-y in October from 4.0% in September.
*The People's Republic of China's (PRC) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in August, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 57.7 from 59.3 over the same period. Singapore's PMI was at 49.5 in October, slightly higher than the 49.4 registered in September but still below a reading of 50 which signals an increase in output. Viet Nam's index of industrial production rose 5.3% y-o-y in October, down from a 12.0% increase in September.
*Hong Kong, China's retail sales grew 24.1% y-o-y in September, following 29.0% growth in August. Viet Nam's total retail sales of consumer goods and services for the first 10 months rose by 23.1% y-o-y. In Japan, domestic vehicle sales in October jumped 28.3% y-o-y to 247,927 units.
*Indonesia's export growth accelerated to 46.3% y-o-y in September, following a revised 35.9% growth rate in August. The Republic of Korea's export growth rate fell to 9.3% in October from 18.8% in September. Malaysia's export growth rose to 16.6% y-o-y in September from 10.9% in August.
*Bank of China (Hong Kong) issued US$750 million worth of 5-year bonds with a coupon of 3.75%. Hong Kong, China auctioned HKD3 billion worth of HKSAR bonds at an average yield of .468%. Henderson Land, a Hong Kong, China-based property developer, priced SGD200 million worth of Reg S 5-year bonds at a yield of 3.865%. Daewoo Shipbuilding issued KRW300 billion of 3-year bonds last week with a coupon rate of 4.41%. Also, Industrial Bank of Korea raised a total of KRW700 billion worth of bonds, ranging from 1-year zero coupon bonds (KRW300 billion) to 15-year bonds with a 4.58% coupon (KRW50 billion). Petron Corporation raised PHP3.6 billion by issuing fixed-rate bonds to institutional investors. First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) issued 5-year bonds with a coupon of 4.6301% in FMIC's first debt sale, which has a target of PHP5 billion-PHP7 billion. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) is issuing PHP5 billion worth of fixed-rate notes consisting of 5-, 7- and 10-year tenors with yields of 5.4692%, 5.4963%, and 6.2188%, respectively. Siam Cement issued THB10 billion worth of 4-year bonds at a coupon rate of 4.25%.
*Net foreign investment into the Republic of Korea's local currency (LCY) bonds surged KRW1,594.4 billion in October, following a net outflow of KRW2.5 billion in September.
*Government bond yields fell last week for most tenors in the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; the Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Singapore; and Viet Nam, while yields rose for most tenors in the Philippines and Thailand. Yield spreads between 2- and 10- year maturities widened in Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam, while spreads narrowed in other emerging East Asian markets.
INTERNATIONAL MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS SURGE IN 2011
Michael Gestrin
International M&A investment has shown resilience in the face of recent economic turmoil, including the unfolding sovereign debt crisis in Europe and persistent economic weakness in the
United States.
International M&A investment in 2011 reached $822 billion as at 21 October. If this pace can be sustained, international M&A will top $100 billion by the end of the year, a 32% increase over 2010.
This would match the third highest level ever reached in 2006. Even if M&A activity were to come to a stop in Q4, 2011 levels will still be 7% higher than those reached in 2010.
Most international investment continues to originate from either North America or Western Europe. However, the emerging markets have become important new sources of international investment in recent years.
China (including Hong Kong) in particular has become a major international investor, ranking as the fourth largest source of international M&A in 2011, with 7% of the world total (figure 2). In 2010 it ranked second with 10%.
The full report can be accessed at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/26/23/48946357.pdf
