History points to a strong as 'risky assets'. If oil prices were to fall by US$20/barrel in the wake of QE2 winding up, will Indian Equities rally (since fuel cost pressures will ease) or will the Sensex slump (keeping in-line with the strong historic positive correlation)? Our sense is that the latter (a slump in the Sensex triggered by a correction in all global 'risky assets') is more likely in the short run. This should then be followed by a healthy rally as cost push pressures ease.
The +91% historic correlation between oil prices and Indian equities correlation between oil prices and Indian equities, presumably because global investors view both these
In our email dated May 5, 2011 we highlighted how we expect the Sensex to grind lower to 16,000 by June 2011 as two sets of dynamics unfold simultaneously namely: 1) India's premium to the broader Emerging Market pack reverts to its long term average of 28%; and 2) consensus pulls back its FY12 EPS estimates by 7% as the impact of higher cost pressure is factored in.
A strong 91 per cent correlation between global oil prices and Indian equities presumably because investors view both as 'risky assets'. Such a correlation strongly suggests that a pullback in oil prices is unlikely to lead to an instantaneous rally in the Sensex. Hence the balance of probabilities would suggest, that in the short run (i.e. the next 2-3 months) a 16,000 Sensex remains the most likely outcome.
According to a report by financial and business reserach firm Evalueserve, there will be pressure on the Rupee unless steps are taken to fix certain structural issues like high current account deficit and dwindling investments.
"During the next two years the probability of the INR (Indian Rupee) to depreciate is the highest (about 50 per cent) as compared to an appreciation or a status quo scenario," Evalueserve said, adding that the depreciation could be in the range of around 20 per cent.
During the past 12 months, the INR has traded in a relatively narrow range between 47.33 and 43.99 to the USD.
"However, the pressure on its stability seems to become more evident," it said.
Evalueserve said INR's depreciation could be fuelled by exit of FII money and lack of investor confidence on account of governance issues, besides high current account deficit (which is the net flow of income out of the country, barring capital movements).
"Even a relatively orderly outflow of USD 15 billion of FII money over a year could result in the INR depreciating by 22-30 per cent. This could imply an exchange rate in the range of INR 55-60 to every USD," it said.
The situation could be even worse in case the outflow in more faster.
Foreign funds have pulled out nearly Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian stock market during the first half of May as interest rate pressures continue to mount.
"This risk (outflow) is also heightened by the fact that India's capital markets are very shallow and do not have the capacity to absorb even moderate external shocks," it said.
Evalueserve pointed to structural factors like the high inflation, which has been blamed on supply side challenges, problems of governance as shown by recent scams, and high deficits.
"Inflation is at an all-time high… The monetary policy changes undertaken by the government to control inflation have been ineffective," the report said, attributing inflation to supply side challenges including lack of infrastructure.
It said that India is the only BRIC economy where Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has shown a fall. FDI fell to USD 19.4 billion in 2010-11 from USD 25.8 billion in 2009-10.
"This is troubling as FDI is an important indicator of investors' faith in a country's long-term prospects. Foreign Institutional Investment has been buoyant, but these funds are volatile by nature and are prone to 'flight risk' at the first signs of trouble, something that happened during the financial crisis," Evalueserve said.
It also blamed the recent scams — as highlighted by the 2G spectrum and CWG case — for creating a perception of governance deficit in India.
"This, combined with regulatory and tax uncertainty, will deter many foreign investors," the report said.
While the government has not been able to liberalise sectors like insurance for foreign players, the Goods and Services Tax had to be postponed due to lack of consensus among political parties.
Evalueserve also said the ongoing political crisis in part of Middle East and North Africa can seriously hurt remittances. The MENA region contributes to a substantial chunk of USD 55 billion remittance received annually from Indians residing abroad.
Regarding deficits, it said: "The government finances are in a bad shape and the combined central and state government deficit has stubbornly stayed around 10 per cent of GDP."
The RBI had earlier this month said it expects India's current account deficit to be around 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2010-11. The report said that while such a rate is normal for growing economies, in India's case it bodes ill due to lack of government savings.
"Moreover, given India's rising import bill and threat to remittances, the deficit will remain high in the near future, creating pressure on the INR," it said.
Credit card companies are jockeying for your business, so they're dishing out more and better rewards offers.
Their rewards programs let you rack up points every time you use your credit card. Cardholders can typically exchange their points for cash and/or use them to pay for travel or certain retail items and services, which are usually listed on the card's website.
Most people prefer cash-back rewards, which let you redeem your points for cash rather than for merchandise. And credit cards are dishing out more cash. Some cards pay out up to 5 percent of a set amount that you charge, though some purchases may be excluded, says Andrew Davidson, senior vice president at market research firm Mintel Comperemedia in Chicago.
But that's not all. You can increasingly choose innovative ways to receive your rewards points that can bolster your finances. You can pay your taxes, beef up your individual retirement account or opt for gift cards sweetened with discounts. Banks also are offering more loyalty programs, which reward consumers for adding services such as online bill payment.
Here's what the rewards landscape looks like in today's competitive rewards environment.
More cash-back offers
Cash-back credit card rewards are usually more generous than debit card rewards. And they're also being offered more frequently.
Know that cash-back rewards programs can be complex, says Ken Paterson, director of credit advisory service at research and consulting firm Mercator Advisory Group in Maynard, Mass.
To sort through the noise, focus on the rewards' core earn rates, which are the rewards that you get for each dollar spent, he says. Cash-back cards typically reward you at lower rates, though some bonus rewards like gas may be higher.
Also, some cards have tiered earnings rates; others have flat rates across all categories.
If you opt for cash back, good spending habits are necessary. Cash-back credit cards typically charge higher interest rates than other credit cards, making them pricier if you don't pay on time.
Gift cards offer more bang
Gift cards are becoming a key way to deliver rewards, Paterson says.
First, they're convenient to use, especially if you often use specific stores. And second, some issuers partner with merchants to give you special offers that may slice another 10 percent to 20 percent off a product's price.
"That's a win for everyone, especially if it's a store you use a lot," he says.
The bottom line is that gift cards can be an easy way to stretch your rewards points even further.
Using rewards to pay taxes
Credit card rewards can now be used to complete other transactions.
American Express allows cardholders to use rewards points to pay federal, state and local income taxes. But there are catches. Using rewards to pay taxes eats up a lot of points quickly. And payments are made by filing taxes via a tax-paying website such as Official Payments, which charges service fees.
Look at redemption rates, says Davidson. They might not be the best use of your rewards points.
On the plus side, some credit cards award points when you use them to pay taxes.
Warming up to loyalty programs
Your bank wants a closer relationship with you. So, it's willing to reward you with loyalty points just for using more of its services. The objective is encouraging consumers to use multiple banking products, Davidson says.
For example, at some banks consumers can earn rewards points for using online bill payment, getting a new loan or combining account balances. Other banks offer rewards points for signing up for paperless statements or paying recurring monthly bills.
On the downside, some banks have plans to end their debit rewards card programs as new limits on interchange, or "swipe," fees on debit cards are phased in.
Need retirement savings help?
Investing in your future is another way to use credit card rewards points.
There are a few cards that allow users to deposit rewards points in IRAs or 529 accounts or put rewards points toward paying down their mortgages.
These cards often come with restrictions -- for instance, one such card requires the cardholder to make $2,500 in purchases before points can start going to the mortgage -- so be sure to read the fine print.
The Fidelity Retirement Rewards American Express Card is an example of a rewards card in which points can be deposited in a retirement account or a 529 account.
"It's a great card for somebody who wants to apply rewards to a goal such as college spending," says Patricia Gooding, a vice president of product management at Fidelity Investments in Boston. "You can set it and forget it."
Making the most of your rewards
To maximize your rewards, zero in on cards that reward you generously for everyday activities like shopping or banking. And read the offer's fine print, says Paterson.
Some reward programs are capped or have expiration dates. And credit card companies sometimes will change their rewards and their values without notice.
Stretching a starting salary is tough work. Recent college grads often are just learning to manage their own finances at a time when they're bearing the cost of setting up their first homes and making student loan payments. This year's graduates face an average loan debt of $24,000 before they collect their first paychecks.
It all makes for difficult choices about how to maintain a desired lifestyle, while paying bills on time, reducing debt and setting aside enough money for emergencies and retirement.
Here are five steps to help get on the right financial track early on.
1. Live by a budget
It's a mistake to think of a budget in terms of deprivation or what you can't spend. Learning to live within certain limits can help you save effectively to achieve certain goals.
The thought of budgeting tends to make people's eyes glaze over because they think they'll have to spend hours at a desk, says Gregg Wind, CPA, partner at Wind & Stern LLP, in Los Angeles.
However, budgeting tools, ranging from free online worksheets to computer software, can make the task much easier.
Budgeting helps eliminate the anxiety of wondering whether you have enough money and it makes it more likely that you'll achieve your goals, Wind says.
Quicken is a popular software program that costs around $30 for basic editions. Free online budgeting tools are offered on various sites, such as, www.moneystrands.com and www.mint.com .
2. Strike a spending balance
It can be difficult to decide how to spend your money when there are so many competing demands.
Still, it's important to remember the advantages of beginning to save for retirement early. A primary benefit is that of compounding interest, or the process of earning interest on interest. This will grow the account faster the more years you're invested.
But shedding college debt takes a serious commitment, too.
"You might want to take a look at where your money is getting its best usage," Wind says.
It makes more sense to pay off a student loan costing you 6 percent before piling lots of money in a savings account earning just 1 percent because it's costing you more to have the debt, he says.
However, the need for recent graduates to save some of their income shouldn't be overlooked.
Right off the bat, new grads need a car, a place to live, and a plan to reduce whatever credit card or student loan debt they've accumulated while in school, says Eleanor Blayney, consumer advocate for the Certified Financial Planner Board, the group that grants certification to financial planners. But the list doesn't end there. "You'll need a reserve fund to support you if you lose your job, or have to relocate for a new one," she says. "In short, you need cash in the bank before you need shares of Apple or Google."
Prioritizing needs ahead of wants is critical for young workers just getting started on their own finances, Blayney says. Generally it's advisable to maintain emergency savings of at least three to six months of living expenses.
Retirement may be low on the list of concerns for young workers. However, if their employer offers a 401(k) match, they should set aside enough from their paycheck to receive the additional funds. The most common match is 50 cents for each dollar saved, up to 6 percent of pay.
Taking this step entitles you to essentially free money from your employer, and offers the additional benefit of reducing your taxable income because the money is taken out before taxes.
It's important to get in the habit of saving for retirement early. "There are not many better deals out there" than the company contribution, says Beth McHugh, vice president of marketing insight at Fidelity Investments.
3. Develop a debt strategy
If your budget is tight and there's a need to cut costs to make ends meet, review your student loan repayment options. Some federal loans allow payments to be adjusted based on income. Remember, however, that reduced payments will extend the term of the loan and will end up costing you more in interest in the long run. So only use this option if necessary and boost those payments back up as soon as possible.
Some loans charge a reduced interest rate if you sign up to have payments automatically deducted from your paycheck. Sallie Mae loans, for example, typically reduce interest by 0.25 percent, says spokeswoman Patricia Nash Christel. Over a 10-year loan that could save as much as $500, she says.
Consolidating debt is another way to reduce expenses. Debt consolidation wraps up smaller individual loans into one large loan, usually with a longer term and a lower interest rate to help reduce monthly payments.
4. Think twice about additional borrowing
If you're thinking about borrowing money, think about whether you're taking on debt for something that appreciates in value, says Blayney, the consumer advocate.
The best reason to borrow money is to pay for something that appreciates over time, as opposed to losing value or depreciating.
For instance, student loans are often referred to as "good debt" because education is an investment in human capital that should pay off in increased earnings in the future. Another example is a house.
Cars, however, depreciate in value, so borrowing to buy one only makes sense if the car is necessary for your employment or building a career, she advises.
5. Ask for help
Educate yourself about personal finance. It's a good idea to seek the advice of trusted friends or family members to get advice on the budget and the spending priorities you've set.
If you can afford it, see a financial planner to help set up your initial budget. Once it's set up, you may not need to see the planner again for a few years if everything's working.
( Source: Associated Press )
Penny Stock on the move: Options Media Group Holdings, Inc ( PINK: OPMG )
announced restructuring of its business and focusing on mobile application market. Stock of the company jumped 142 % in Tuesday's trading session.
announced restructuring of its business and focusing on mobile application market. Stock of the company jumped 142 % in Tuesday's trading session.
Below is the News Release:
(Marketwire - May 17, 2011) - Options Media Group Holdings, Inc. (OTCQB: OPMG) (PINKSHEETS: OPMG), which recently announced it is changing its name to PhoneGuard, Inc., today announced a restructuring of its business so it could focus on the fast growing multi-billion dollar mobile applications market.
Scott Frohman, CEO, "As disclosed in our Form 10-K, we have realigned our business and written-off certain assets in order to concentrate on the mobile and smart phone applications market. All of us at PhoneGuard and most others in the industry believe the huge growth seen in the apps market over the past few years is just the beginning of this upswing. The DriveSafe Software Suite is our flagship product line and we plan to pack this product full of all the features and functions smart phone users demand. As we announced yesterday, we will hold a conference call next week to discuss the features and functions of this new product suite and to discuss our recent agreement with Justin Bieber to promote DriveSafe and combat texting while driving."
PhoneGuard's revolutionary Drive Safe™ anti-texting while driving software application suite disables the texting, emailing and keyboard functions of a mobile phone when a vehicle is in motion. By using GPS to track speed and coordinates, the Don't Text Don't Drive Mobile Application automatically turns off certain functionalities of the driver's mobile phone when the phone is in a moving vehicle. Thus, the user will no longer be able to text, email, surf the web or instant message while driving. When the car is stopped for more than 5 seconds, however, the phone will automatically allow texting and other data functions to resume. Any missed text messages will be waiting for the user. Once the user starts driving again, the software will automatically block these activities again.
Faith in global growth has plunged in recent months, with a sharp drop in the number of fund managers who believe the world's economy will expand in the next year.
The results, contained in the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey, also show less confidence among institutional investors in corporate profits.
The survey found just 41 percent of managers believing the global economy will expand, while 31 percent see a pullback and the remaining 28 percent either unsure or seeing little growth. That's a huge drop from earlier this year.
Though some 69 percent of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 have posted better-than-expected earnings from the first quarter, the stock market has sputtered and investor confidence appears to have waned significantly.
"A triple dip in growth expectations is reshaping investors' stance on risk," Michael Hartnett, BofAML's chief global equity strategist, said in a statement.
Investor choices appear to be reflecting some risk aversion, with a rotation likely into defensive areas such as pharmaceuticals and staples and out of energy and materials, the survey found.
The faith in the global economy has dropped precipitously from sentiment that a recovery story—driven largely by emerging economies in China, Brazil and elsewhere—was well in place.
In the February survey, a net of some 58 percent expected growth. By April, that number had plunged to 27 percent. In the early May survey, a net of just 10 percent believe the global economy will expand.
The primary culprit for the drop in investor sentiment appears to be Europe, where investors fear that foreign-denominated, or sovereign, debt in peripheral nations such as Greece and Portugal will prevent growth. According to the survey, 36 percent believe sovereign debt is the greatest risk globally.
Because of the global economic pressures, expectations for interest rate hikes also have receded, with 72 percent of respondents now expecting the Federal Reserve to wait until 2012 to start tightening.
Elsewhere, the survey found increased allocation toward emerging markets, despite the likelihood of a slowdown in China, while expectations for tsunami-ravaged China continue to improve, with 38 percent expecting growth.
Also, nearly half of the respondents think the US dollar is undervalued and the euro overvalued.
The survey includes 284 panelists with $814 billion in assets under management.
( Source: CNBC )
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MCX Stock Exchange Ltd (MCX-SX) moved a step closer to getting permission to trade in equities with the finance ministry deciding to soon discuss, with various participants and intermediaries in the stock market, the controversial recommendations of the Bimal Jalan committee on market infrastructure and subsequently take a call on these suggestions.
The ministry's position will then be communicated to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), effectively forcing the regulator's hand. The panel was appointed by Sebi, and its board was to take a call on the recommendations.
According to a senior finance ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the ministry has decided to be proactive on the Jalan panel recommendations, given the controversy they have generated and their importance. The ministry believes consultations with stakeholders would be the best way to arrive at an acceptable solution, the official said.
In January 2010, Sebi set up the committee under former Reserve Bank of India governor Jalan to review the ownership and governance of market infrastructure institutions (MIIs), such as stock exchanges in the country.
The committee submitted its report in November, which was then placed in the public domain.
The recommendations, particularly those dealing with the ownership of exchanges, the cap on profits of MIIs and the bar on exchanges listing their own shares, kicked up a storm.
Many of the recommendations were publicly opposed by some market participants such as the Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd (BSE) and MCX-SX.
With two stock exchanges, BSE and MCX-SX, clearly in favour of listing exchanges, the finance ministry's attempt to forge a consensus will likely dilute the Jalan committee's recommendations related to this.
A spokesperson for MCX-SX declined to comment.
Sebi's new chairman U.K. Sinha has said he does not have the final say on the Jalan committee report.
"You should ask about deadline only if you think that the person you are talking to has the ultimate authority to decide on it," Sinha told Mint in a recent interview (9 May) when asked about the status of the recommendations. "Unfortunately, that is not the case."
Sinha's oblique reference to the ministry's role was confirmed by an expert.
"The ministry has become more proactive," said Sandeep Parekh, founder of Finsec Law Advisors and previously executive director at Sebi. "It is kind of different from what it was in the last five-eight years."
Sinha did indicate in the same interview that Sebi would be more amenable to granting MCX-SX permission to trade in equities.
Sebi had earlier denied the exchange permission as it hadn't met required norms regarding the ownership of exchanges. The regulator was headed at that time by C.B. Bhave, who was succeeded by Sinha in February.
Sinha said he would encourage competition among exchanges and ensure business wasn't concentrated with a particular exchange, a clear reference to the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
The ministry's proactive role extends to Sebi's stand on new takeover regulations. Discussions on these have featured in two of Sebi's recent board meetings, but a final decision has not been taken as the ministry is holding its own discussions with stakeholders.
According to Sinha, the finance ministry's chief economic adviser, Kaushik Basu, is currently talking to stakeholders to help the ministry crystallize its position on the takeover code.
The Jalan panel's opposition to the listing of exchanges stems from their role as frontline regulators apart from being market participants. The finance ministry official cited earlier said soon after the recommendations came out that this had not prevented other bourses such as the New York Stock Exchange from listing.
"We shouldn't be the last to do things," the official said, adding that the ministry's role would be restricted to forging a consensus.